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Central PA - Early December


MAG5035

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Even that looks pretty bad to me. The 12-hr period with the heaviest precip is also the 12-hour period where 850s could be above 0C. Temporal resolution isn't good enough from those numbers to say whether that 0.28 is falling mostly when 850s are above 0C, or below. And based on the Wunderground maps, it's mostly before. The back-end thump that some of the Euro runs (and other models) have been hinting at is all but gone on the latest Euro... doesn't make it out of WV.

Well, having seen enough of these since I've moved here, that's an ice storm. In case you're not aware, the first number is 2M temps, second 850. It seems like a lot of the .85 that falls is at or below 32 F.

 

One thing for the I-99 corridor (not Clearfield) that's a microclimate thing, the majority of the time we hold onto cold air longer than modeled, even to the point where Altoona can be say 50 and we are still at 32 (the Christmas Eve ice storm from several years ago is a good example). Although this doesn't seem to be a class CAD setup.

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Pitt WFO just popped a Winter Storm Watch for almost its entire CWA:

 

 

 

GARRETT-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...
KINGWOOD...PARSONS
312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE RIDGES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* SNOW BEGINNING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. STEADIER
SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...TUESDAY NIGHT.

* PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TRANSITION...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN OR SLEET EVERYWHERE FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN
THE RIDGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ENDING...WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
ACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER
WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA.
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Well, having seen enough of these since I've moved here, that's an ice storm. In case you're not aware, the first number is 2M temps, second 850. It seems like a lot of the .85 that falls is at or below 32 F.

 

One thing for the I-99 corridor (not Clearfield) that's a microclimate thing, the majority of the time we hold onto cold air longer than modeled, even to the point where Altoona can be say 50 and we are still at 32 (the Christmas Eve ice storm from several years ago is a good example). Although this doesn't seem to be a class CAD setup.

 

That's what concerns me the most. 850 flow is out of the south or southwest, not out of the southeast... so I'm not sure how much CAD is going to help us here, at least with snow.

 

I guess I wouldn't be too surprised if a lot of the "rain" the models are spitting out is actually ice as far southeast as here... still, the Euro, even if we call most of the "rain" ice, has very little snow here. Maybe an inch or two beforehand, and maybe an inch or two afterwards, at best.

 

Of course, it's not necessarily going to pan out like the Euro suggests, and there are still ensembles which support a snowier solution... but it's hard to ignore when almost all operational guidance has come into general agreement.

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That's what concerns me the most. 850 flow is out of the south or southwest, not out of the southeast... so I'm not sure how much CAD is going to help us here, at least with snow.

 

I guess I wouldn't be too surprised if a lot of the "rain" the models are spitting out is actually ice as far southeast as here... still, the Euro, even if we call most of the "rain" ice, has very little snow here. Maybe an inch or two beforehand, and maybe an inch or two afterwards, at best.

 

Of course, it's not necessarily going to pan out like the Euro suggests, and there are still ensembles which support a snowier solution... but it's hard to ignore when almost all operational guidance has come into general agreement.

Curiously enough, NWS has dropped rain completely from our forecast for 16870:

 

  • Monday Night A slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Tuesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Tuesday Night Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Wednesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
  • Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

For State College just has rain/snow turning to snow by 1 pm and same for Tuesday night.

 

I don't get it.

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Curiously enough, NWS has dropped rain completely from our forecast for 16870:

 

  • Monday Night A slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Tuesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Tuesday Night Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Wednesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
  • Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

For State College just has rain/snow turning to snow by 1 pm and same for Tuesday night.

 

I don't get it.

 

They have more experience than I do forecasting out here. Could just be that they (like you) know more about local effects than I do. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic. I dunno.

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They have more experience than I do forecasting out here. Could just be that they (like you) know more about local effects than I do. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic. I dunno.

Like you said, not a classic CAD situation so I don't know. I figured they'd have like "snow, sleet or rain becoming all rain" for Wed night.

 

Their AFD is interesting: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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Curiously enough, NWS has dropped rain completely from our forecast for 16870:

 

  • Monday Night A slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Tuesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Tuesday Night Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Wednesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
  • Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

For State College just has rain/snow turning to snow by 1 pm and same for Tuesday night.

 

I don't get it.

 

Call me crazy, but I think you guys will ultimately make out pretty decent snow wise.

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Like you said, not a classic CAD situation so I don't know. I figured they'd have like "snow, sleet or rain becoming all rain" for Wed night.

 

Their AFD is interesting: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

Interesting, but not necessarily encouraging (nor does it crush hopes :P )

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I remember when I was young a storm in nj where we got 6" then it was washed away by heavy rain that afternoon. Very depressing.

I do if it means there are only a few inches on the ground at the end.

I dunno, I've never experienced a storm like this. I would guess that heavy rain, even at 34F, would destroy the snow that falls first and that only the second batch would end up sticking around. Does that sound right?

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I didn't quite realize just how good the 18z NAM solution was here in State College until now. Snow to a brief period of ice/mix, then back to snow again. Heavy bands of snow at times. Oh, wouldn't it be nice for the 18z NAM to verify? But... it's the 18z NAM. :lol:

 

EDIT: Clown map through hr 60, with the second band yet to swing through:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif

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