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Central PA - Early December


MAG5035

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I do if it means there are only a few inches on the ground at the end.

 

I dunno, I've never experienced a storm like this. I would guess that heavy rain, even at 34F, would destroy the snow that falls first and that only the second batch would end up sticking around. Does that sound right?

Temps near freezing would mean that the snow just eats up the rain and doesn't really melt. At the end of the storm, the snow just freezes into concrete because of all the water content. When the temp gets to over the upper 30s, it starts melting faster.

 

We deal with a lot of those in my area. :(

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Am I crazy to suggest that the writing is on the wall? Mostly a big rainstorm except for far western/northwestern PA... ?

Oddly enough, NWS went colder for both of us for the storm.

 

My forecast now only has the R word in it Tuesday night

 

  •  
  • Monday Night A slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  • Tuesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
  • Tuesday Night Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  • Wednesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
  • Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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How does it look out my way?

Far enough west for mostly snow???

Whaddya know, FIG makes the cut.

 

Euro for FIG:

 

TUE 12Z 26-NOV  -2.0    -5.7    1025      52      91    0.00     558     538    TUE 18Z 26-NOV   0.3    -3.7    1022      76      98    0.02     558     540    WED 00Z 27-NOV  -1.3     0.2    1017      93     100    0.18     557     543    WED 06Z 27-NOV   0.2     1.6    1010      99     100    0.63     555     547    WED 12Z 27-NOV  -0.2    -2.1    1005      94      99    0.28     550     546    WED 18Z 27-NOV  -0.1    -7.5    1006      75      67    0.03     545     540    THU 00Z 28-NOV  -4.6    -8.9    1007      86      11    0.00     537     531    THU 06Z 28-NOV  -5.1   -12.0    1010      85      54    0.01     529     522    THU 12Z 28-NOV  -8.2   -13.7    1019      82      31    0.01     535     520  
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Whaddya know, FIG makes the cut.

 

Euro for FIG:

 

TUE 12Z 26-NOV  -2.0    -5.7    1025      52      91    0.00     558     538    TUE 18Z 26-NOV   0.3    -3.7    1022      76      98    0.02     558     540    WED 00Z 27-NOV  -1.3     0.2    1017      93     100    0.18     557     543    WED 06Z 27-NOV   0.2     1.6    1010      99     100    0.63     555     547    WED 12Z 27-NOV  -0.2    -2.1    1005      94      99    0.28     550     546    WED 18Z 27-NOV  -0.1    -7.5    1006      75      67    0.03     545     540    THU 00Z 28-NOV  -4.6    -8.9    1007      86      11    0.00     537     531    THU 06Z 28-NOV  -5.1   -12.0    1010      85      54    0.01     529     522    THU 12Z 28-NOV  -8.2   -13.7    1019      82      31    0.01     535     520  

 

Even that looks pretty bad to me. The 12-hr period with the heaviest precip is also the 12-hour period where 850s could be above 0C. Temporal resolution isn't good enough from those numbers to say whether that 0.28 is falling mostly when 850s are above 0C, or below. And based on the Wunderground maps, it's mostly before. The back-end thump that some of the Euro runs (and other models) have been hinting at is all but gone on the latest Euro... doesn't make it out of WV.

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Even that looks pretty bad to me. The 12-hr period with the heaviest precip is also the 12-hour period where 850s could be above 0C. Temporal resolution isn't good enough from those numbers to say whether that 0.28 is falling mostly when 850s are above 0C, or below. And based on the Wunderground maps, it's mostly before. The back-end thump that some of the Euro runs (and other models) have been hinting at is all but gone on the latest Euro... doesn't make it out of WV.

Booo

Rain on my parade :P

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