Australian season begins

[Ed Lizard]

CI of 1.5 not that impressive, but still.

 

 

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 2:16 pm WST on Thursday 21 November 2013

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Wyndham to Beagle Bay.

At 2:00 pm WST a tropical low was estimated to be
870 kilometres northwest of Broome and
960 kilometres west northwest of Kuri Bay and
moving southeast at 11 kilometres per hour towards the West Kimberley coast.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday.

The low is not expected to cause gales during Thursday or Friday. Gales may
develop along the north Kimberley coast on Saturday as the system approaches
the coast. Overnight Saturday into Sunday it is likely to brush the northern
Kimberley coast. During Sunday it is likely to weaken as it approaches the west
coast of the Top End.

Rainfall from this system is likely to be confined to coastal areas. Even in
coastal areas, rainfall totals are expected to be less than is typical with a
tropical low or cyclone. 

DFES-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Beagle Bay and Wyndham should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 116.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Thursday 21 November.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling  1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Since it may be 8 or 32 months before we see anything like this in the Atlantic...

 

Not anywhere near Australia, actually.

May stay that way for a day or five.  Euro develops a TC in a week NE of WA, but moves it West away from Australia.

 

There are no significant tropical lows in the Region. The monsoon trough is
expected to develop over waters to the north of the Territory over the next
couple of days and a weak low pressure system is expected to form in the
northern Timor Sea on Sunday or Monday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday          Very Low  
Monday          Low       
Tuesday         Low  

 

     

 

No animated gifs for Amara, Cat 4 by CIMSS ADT

[Ed Lizard]

iCyclone FB reminds us today of Cyclone Tracy that devastated Darwin in 1974

 

 

Potential Cyclones: 

A tropical low, 1003 hPa, is located east of the Western Region in the Timor
Sea nearly 200km northeast of Kalumburu, moving slowly towards the southwest.
This system will likely enter the Western Region on Thursday, and is forecast
to become a tropical cyclone on Friday or Saturday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday        Moderate  
Friday          High      
Saturday        High      



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.

 

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

From the little acorn comes the mighty oak?

 

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[uTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  26/1200: 13.2S 122.1E:     090 [165]:  020  [035]: 1002
+12:  26/1800: 13.6S 121.8E:     090 [165]:  025  [045]: 1001
+18:  27/0000: 13.9S 121.4E:     090 [165]:  025  [045]: 1001
+24:  27/0600: 14.2S 121.1E:     095 [175]:  030  [055]:  998
+36:  27/1800: 14.7S 120.5E:     110 [205]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  28/0600: 15.3S 119.9E:     120 [220]:  040  [075]:  989
+60:  28/1800: 15.9S 119.3E:     130 [240]:  045  [085]:  986
+72:  29/0600: 16.7S 118.4E:     140 [260]:  055  [100]:  979
+96:  30/0600: 18.5S 116.2E:     170 [315]:  075  [140]:  959
+120: 31/0600: 21.8S 115.3E:     210 [390]:  090  [165]:  947
REMARKS:
The system previously located in the Joseph Bonaparte has developed a new
circulation well to the north of Broome. From a policy perspective the same
system number has been maintained, however the low level centre appears to be
developing under new, much broader, mid level circulation.

With an initial dvorak classification of 1.5, the system is not likely to reach
tropical cyclone intensity until at least Saturday. Model guidance suggests a
broad, monsoonal like, structure in the development phase, with a contraction of
the RMW as the system approaches maturity.

The GFS is not preferred from a model guidance perspective as it appears to
develop the older circulation that has mostly dissipated. The ECMWF has, through
consecutive model runs, develop the system quicker and to a greater intensity,
for each run. However coastal crossing point has also moved further east, and
may limit final maximum intensity.

All guidance suggest a large diameter system, greater than the climatological
norm. This may be significant when storm surge and wind impacts are considered
later in the system lifecycle.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC

 

.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

I miss the Bendy Mod.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Christine, Australian Cat 2.  iCyclone's Facebook had a primer for how their scale matches ours.  Or doesn't match.

 

Landfall as an 85 knot storm, but I believe that is a ten minute wind, so a high end Cat 2, I think, or an Australian Cat 3.

 

Anyhow.

 

Why do the Australians issue Hurricane Force Wind Warnings but just call their storms cyclones?

IDW23100
40:3:2:24:16S120E999:11:00
PAN PAN...

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1909UTC 28 DECEMBER 2013

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Christine was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal four south (16.4S)
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal three east (120.3E)
Recent movement : southwest at 6 knots
Central pressure: 989 hPa

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Lonely in here.

 

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[uTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 29/1200: 17.7S 119.4E: 035 [070]: 060 [110]: 977
+12: 29/1800: 18.2S 118.9E: 050 [090]: 065 [120]: 970...
+18: 30/0000: 18.7S 118.4E: 060 [115]: 070 [130]: 965
+24: 30/0600: 19.3S 118.0E: 075 [135]: 075 [140]: 961
+36: 30/1800: 20.8S 117.4E: 095 [175]: 080 [150]: 958
+48: 31/0600: 23.3S 118.2E: 115 [210]: 050 [095]: 984
+60: 31/1800: 26.1S 121.4E: 135 [245]: 035 [065]: 994
+72: 01/0600: 28.7S 126.7E: 150 [280]: 030 [055]: 997
+96: 02/0600: 30.0S 140.8E: 195 [365]: 025 [045]: 999
+120: 03/0600: 29.1S 147.9E: 285 [525]: 025 [045]: 998
REMARKS:
System has continued to intensified with improved curvature in deep convection
near the centre. Also microwave [2330UTC SSMIS] showed a symmetrical low level
circulation and provided a good indication of centre location.

Recent Dvorak analysis on VIS gave curved band of 1.0 to 1.1, giving DT in the
range of 3.5-4.0. MET is 4.0 based on strong development, with FT and CI set at
4.0.

Model guidance supports a larger than average circulation size, and forecast
gale radii reflect this guidance. This is also consistent with earlier
observations from Rowley Shoals, and Bedout Island has recently recorded gales,
some 140 nautical miles to the south of the centre.

The environment is conducive to development with strong upper level outflow both
poleward and equatorward and high SSTs. The system is forecast to intensify at a
standard rate which would result in a category 3 intensity before crossing the
coast.

Given the size and intensity of the system storm tide impacts are likely to be
significant.

Model guidance also suggests the system will remain relatively intact as it
transitions across the state, following capture by a mid level trough. Wind and
rain impacts are therefore forecast to extend well inland, with severe winds
possible close to the track as it moves swiftly southeastwards across central WA
during Tuesday and Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 29/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

 

 

[ncforecaster89]

Severe TC Christine now making landfall as an intensifying category three TC.

[phil882]

Landphoon anyone?

 

[Ed Lizard]

Oz Chasers (I follow, as does iCyclone) may have somethingworth chasing...

 

 

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:53 pm EST on Monday 27 January 2014
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 30 January 2014.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones: 

A monsoon low lies over the northern reaches of the Coral Sea, and is expected
to strengthen as it moves towards the Queensland coast during this week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday         Moderate  
Wednesday       High      
Thursday        High      



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

 

No Euro pictures right now...

 

Parts of the ECMWF web site are currently unavailable.

Due to unforeseen circumstances, some ECMWF web services are currently not available. We are aware of the problem and are working toward fixing it.

ECMWF Operations

       

 

[Ed Lizard]

The answer is blowing in the wind.

 

IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell and St Lawrence and
adjacent inland areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 11:08 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville.

At 10:00 pm EST  Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be 125
kilometres north of Bowen and 155 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on
Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 kilometres per hour are possible between Cardwell
and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday
morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible in coastal areas
near the centre.

 

 

[Yellow Evan]

Basin in its usual Feb lull it seems.