mdsnowlover Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Yeah, it's a nice look. GFS has something quite similar. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 ?? Are you looking at the same Day 10 euro as me?! That is probably the most epic pattern we've seen on the models all year. PV is actually shifted east so cold looks locked in, +PNA, block, shortwave out west. if everyone can accept that there's no threat until after New Years you'll be much happier. It's a so-so pattern for snow. For you in Philly, it may be better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 It's a so-so pattern for snow. For you in Philly, it may be better...Yea, verbatim it still favors a nw track but plenty of cold around it appears. Still light years better then where we sit today unless someone has a mild and soggy fetish. There are definitely some Nino qualities to the pattern. Just missing a key feature to the north. Add that in and Wes gets excited. For now, I'll remain optimistic that dc takes off the hex blanket with a 2" blanket before Jan 10th. Some folks to the nw have chance at hitting annual climo snow in Jan if things hold together long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 If you live long term in the DC area and love winter, a good rule of thumb is to have low expectations before Jan 15. After 37 winters in this area it works pretty well. When I still liked winter I wouldn't "tune in" until mid January, and it kept the frustration level to a minimum. Forecasting around here beyond two weeks is largely a roll of the dice, but I'd have to think we will connect on all the right winter variables at some point between Jan 15 and Feb 28 for a significant snowfall. Available QPF doesn't seem to be an issue this year. What I have noticed long term is that we are losing a lot more on the margins relative to past decades. This area has always had high sensitivity to slight shifts in the storm track, the impact of a degree or two temperature changes, etc. Systems that may have produced 2-4 or 3-6 in the past seem to now be 33 and cold rain more frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Yea, verbatim it still favors a nw track but plenty of cold around it appears. Still light years better then where we sit today unless someone has a mild and soggy fetish. There are definitely some Nino qualities to the pattern. Just missing a key feature to the north. Add that in and Wes gets excited. For now, I'll remain optimistic that dc takes off the hex blanket with a 2" blanket before Jan 10th. Some folks to the nw have chance at hitting annual climo snow in Jan if things hold together long enough. I think it gives everyone opportunities...I am somewhat bullish about the 1/1 - 1/10 period...perhaps the middle to latter part of that period...so I think we are on the same page...just give me 4-6 hours of moderate snow...I don't care what happens before or after...Though I think these cold shots might be more transient than people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I think it gives everyone opportunities...I am somewhat bullish about the 1/1 - 1/10 period...perhaps the middle to latter part of that period...so I think we are on the same page...just give me 4-6 hours of moderate snow...I don't care what happens before or after...Though I think these cold shots might be more transient than people think. I'm thinking warm/wet, cold/dry, but with overlaps so that we get snow/frozen precip at the start and possibly at the end of larger events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I'm thinking warm/wet, cold/dry, but with overlaps so that we get snow/frozen precip at the start and possibly at the end of larger events sounds about right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Yea matt, we are definitely on the same page. Ind ens members of the last 2 gefs runs sum it up perfectly and its exactly what weve been harping on. Anything wound up near tx cuts, all snow solutions are overunning along the boundary, and miller b's destroy everything north of us. It all hinges on orientation of the trough and that will be mobile. Zero reason to speculate so far out other than it appears it will be cold enough for frozen at times and there is a lot of moisture to work with from the ss as we start the new year. Virtually all members are wet with multiple possibilities. Total kitchen sink of solutions. There are good reasons to be bullish overall for the first 10 days of the month. Sweet miller a bullish? Notsomuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 GFS gives us a -NAO which makes all the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 GFS gives us a -NAO which makes all the difference Southern stream dominance gives us 2 changes in early January (according to the GFS). The first threat is around 240 and the GFS has been consistent on that time frame. Hopefully the Euro starts seeing it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Southern stream dominance gives us 2 changes in early January (according to the GFS). The first threat is around 240 and the GFS has been consistent on that time frame. Hopefully the Euro starts seeing it as well. The Euro is seeing it. Highzenberg mentioned it this morning. GFS and Euro look pretty similar around Day 10. We'll see what today holds. Decent ensemble support (6z GEFS) as well given the 10-11 day leadtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Subtle changes to the ul height patterns above us can cause large changes to what happens. Stating the obvious but 10 day leads are treacherous to expect anything. Hopefully some ens members show some support. Its was an outlier with the last 2 gefs runs but the solution was there. All lonely and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I think it gives everyone opportunities...I am somewhat bullish about the 1/1 - 1/10 period...perhaps the middle to latter part of that period...so I think we are on the same page...just give me 4-6 hours of moderate snow...I don't care what happens before or after...Though I think these cold shots might be more transient than people think. I suspect I'll be doing articles on storm chances next week. I'll write more once my article runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I suspect I'll be doing articles on storm chances next week. I'll write more once my article runs today. Wes is positive. ALEET!!! Good stuff. -Ao -NAO. January will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Wes is positive. ALEET!!! Good stuff. -Ao -NAO. January will be rockin Root for the AO to go way negative, otherwise we may only have the 1st half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Love hearing about multiple precip chances. Looking at the 8-14 day outlooks the past week or so, the bn precip area has finally crept over us. For seemingly weeks on end we've been in the an area. I know those maps don't necessarily mean anything, but I still find comfort in hearing about potential wetness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Kitchen sink of solutions on the GEFS. At this point, it's just safe to say the pattern gets a lot more active starting in about 1 week. Around Day 10, you can see the GEFS mean has a -AO, +PNA and a neutral-tilted s/w east of the MS river. Pretty decent look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Did Wes just write that January 96 is about to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Most of the GFS analogs have a T-2" event in the 11-15 day period...none more than 2" though.....ENS are not nearly as bullish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Did Wes just write that January 96 is about to happen? I think a 1-3" event is more likely....the upcoming pattern does not support a KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Wes is positive. ALEET!!! Good stuff. -Ao -NAO. January will be rockin you do realize that a 0.7" event for us with 3.2" for Hagerstown and some sleet/ice for the far western burbs is going to keep Wes busy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Love hearing about multiple precip chances. Looking at the 8-14 day outlooks the past week or so, the bn precip area has finally crept over us. For seemingly weeks on end we've been in the an area. I know those maps don't necessarily mean anything, but I still find comfort in hearing about potential wetness. it could be kind of like 12/8 - 12/13 except less snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2013 Author Share Posted December 23, 2013 Almost every 12z gefs ensemble member has at least one measurable snow threat between nye and the 7th. The majority have 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Hope you guys are right. A week ago the target date for a stormy period was from 12/28-01/01/2014. Now its pushed back to 01/05/14 give or take a day or two. Hope that's not a trend for this winter. It looks as if any storm that shows up 9-11 days out fizzles out. But at least the indexes are trending in the right direction, if they are to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Hope you guys are right. A week ago the target date for a stormy period was from 12/28-01/01/2014. Now its pushed back to 01/05/14 give or take a day or two. Hope that's not a trend for this winter. It looks as if any storm that shows up 9-11 days out fizzles out. But at least the indexes are trending in the right direction, if they are to be believed. It was never my target date. Day 9-11 storms are almost always fizzlers because of chaos. The pattern is more important right now than getting a model to forecast a storm in the Jan 1-7 time frame. Get the ao and NAO negative, keep the negative EPO and positive PNA and we have a better than climo chance for getting snow. That doesn't mean we get one but means the chances are greater than with a positive ao and negative PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Thread nazi hit. Snow.. serious biz. Sorry to the three people who had to read banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Euro isn't bullish on blocking like the GFS is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Euro isn't bullish on blocking like the GFS is I noticed that. Hopefully it's ens mean will continue to look like last night's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Euro isn't bullish on blocking like the GFS is i think this year is the most the euro has hated us...it wont even give us a fantasy for a day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 If you are into LE snow. Early next week looks pretty decent for the normal areas. Wisp should do OK. In the longer term the pattern on the GFS is really nice. The event on the 3/4th needs to be watched for sure. Nice to see multiple threats in TX on the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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