Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Yea, this is a new look. I might be wrong but I don't remember an arctic front aligned like this in previous runs. It's a good setup to maximize being on the n side of a weak vort. Highly suspect run but fun to look at. Happy hour comes early on Sundays? Yeah, not sure how right it is, but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Wow...gfs has jyo at 0 in the super duper extended....seems extreme....but then again it was 70 this morning Yeah, saw that DCA broke a record max yesterday, the old one was from around 1920 or something like that. Today's record max is in jeopardy (has it been broken yet?), with the old one going back to 1889!! How many record mins have we broken in the past several years to decade or so at DCA? Seems like none, haha! We've broken record heat in the heart of summer and in the middle of winter, but I don't recall so much (if any) record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Howdy! 12z GEFS has a beautiful -AO for the entire run after about Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 January will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Ensemble mean is the best look we've had in a long time. Pv centered on the east side of Hudson. Trough axis is fine. If the southern stream is active this has the potential to be the snowiest period in 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 This might actually happen...things are starting to look up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 This might actually happen...things are starting to look up? Yea, this is shaping up to be pretty sweet. Not perfect but that only happens every 10 years or so. If trends hold through this week then mods are going to be busy containing a major outbreak of weenieism. Imo- this looks like the best pattern since 09-10 if the ss is active. But still a far cry from how sweet 09-10 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 No offense to anyone but pretty sure we've heard those lines before in the past few years (best since). Eventually it'll happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 No offense to anyone but pretty sure we've heard those lines before in the past few years (best since). Eventually it'll happen though. None taken. It's the first time we've had a legit chance at ss moisture and blocking since 09-10. I might be wrong but I don't remember anything but ns dominance since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 None taken. It's the first time we've had a legit chance at ss moisture and blocking since 09-10. I might be wrong but I don't remember anything but ns dominance since then. Probably mostly. 10-11 could have been a different winter based on how it looked on paper but even Boxing Day was kind of a hybrid A/B. We're good at screwing up positive looks.. at least those of us not N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Yea, this is shaping up to be pretty sweet. Not perfect but that only happens every 10 years or so. If trends hold through this week then mods are going to be busy containing a major outbreak of weenieism. Imo- this looks like the best pattern since 09-10 if the ss is active. But still a far cry from how sweet 09-10 was. Actually similar to 09-10 in that the PV is displaced south. Now if we can get something to pop on the southern stream. We are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 If we had a southern stream, the pattern would look quite a bit like March 93. Not that I think it will produce anything similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Pattern def looks good +PNA looks like a lock right now, but the PV is still a bit centralized in Canada, may be able to get minor/moderate snowstorms, but I don't see a chance for a MECS etc. as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Probably mostly. 10-11 could have been a different winter based on how it looked on paper but even Boxing Day was kind of a hybrid A/B. We're good at screwing up positive looks.. at least those of us not N/W. Speaking of which and to your point, this was the super computer ensemble forecast on 12/18/10 0Z; I don't know why I kept it, but I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 This might actually happen...things are starting to look up? None taken. It's the first time we've had a legit chance at ss moisture and blocking since 09-10. I might be wrong but I don't remember anything but ns dominance since then. Actually similar to 09-10 in that the PV is displaced south. Now if we can get something to pop on the southern stream. We are in business. The pattern advertised is certainly not a KU-type pattern for us, but it's a look that could get us a decent run of cold and snow/chances of snow. With the type of pattern advertised, we'd be looking at light events for ones that are all snow (clippers/tail-end frontal waves/maybe a Miller-B?) and messy events for big wound up storms (cutters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Speaking of which and to your point, this was the super computer ensemble forecast on 12/18/10 0Z; I don't know why I kept it, but I did. That was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 The pattern advertised is certainly not a KU-type pattern for us, but it's a look that could get us a decent run of cold and snow/chances of snow. With the type of pattern advertised, we'd be looking at light events for ones that are all snow (clippers/tail-end frontal waves/maybe a Miller-B?) and messy events for big wound up storms (cutters). Agree. Verbatim it does not support a big clean storm. Our best chance at all snow is a modest event. Overunning or ns vort with a good track. I just want dca to break the 2" curse. There is my bar and I'm a little stoked right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Has anyone read Kocin's "Northeast Snowstorms" books? If so, are they helpful in knowing what to look for at the LR for a good pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Agree. Verbatim it does not support a big clean storm. Our best chance at all snow is a modest event. Overunning or ns vort with a good track. I just want dca to break the 2" curse. There is my bar and I'm a little stoked right now. I've been saying it since last year and I'm not sure it's changed. Given how DCA measures + UHI + climate + bad luck, I think most of the LWX CWA will need a warning-level event before DCA gets 2". But, I think a 4-6" for much of the 'burbs is a possibility given the advertised pattern with some luck. Has anyone read Kocin's "Northeast Snowstorms" books? If so, are they helpful in knowing what to look for at the LR for a good pattern? It's very good. You can also use CPC's website and get the upper air anomaly charts for any particular KU, or combine them together and get a composite KU-type pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Has anyone read Kocin's "Northeast Snowstorms" books? If so, are they helpful in knowing what to look for at the LR for a good pattern? Absolutely. It is the weenie bible. Worth every penny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Euro ens mean keep getting better. -nao signal looking better, pv east of hudson, and pna ridge staying put. Nye looks quite cold on the means. We could actually stay below normal for a week in this pattern. I'm sure dca will squeeze a couple +10s though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 I've been saying it since last year and I'm not sure it's changed. Given how DCA measures + UHI + climate + bad luck, I think most of the LWX CWA will need a warning-level event before DCA gets 2". But, I think a 4-6" for much of the 'burbs is a possibility given the advertised pattern with some luck.January tends to balance things a bit more. If we can connect moisture with cold during our climo coldest time even DCA can perform. Jan 30 was extra chilly but DCA pretty much matched most spots in that one. Clippers generally too. Any marginal situation is going to suck no matter what there. Prob lost like 3-5" of Snowmageddon on the front end there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 It's very good. You can also use CPC's website and get the upper air anomaly charts for any particular KU, or combine them together and get a composite KU-type pattern. Absolutely. It is the weenie bible. Worth every penny. Awesome, thanks. Ordered myself a copy from Amazon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 January tends to balance things a bit more. If we can connect moisture with cold during our climo coldest time even DCA can perform. Jan 30 was extra chilly but DCA pretty much matched most spots in that one. Clippers generally too. Any marginal situation is going to suck no matter what there. Prob lost like 3-5" of Snowmageddon on the front end there. I don't see anything before the 1st and think the 18Z gfs is on the right track in getting rid of the light event next MOnday if you can say that so far in advance (always risky). Beyond the the 31st, it will be cold and the pattern looks like it could support clippers or miller b type storms. The heights still look a little low across Baffin Bay for me to get excited about the potential of a big event but at least the AO is negative with a positive PNA so things are better than they have been as long as we get some southern stream energy involved. The period (the 1st week of Jan) looks more like a Chill get excited period than a usedtobe one but that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Euro control is dry through 360 The euro control..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Euro control is dry through 360 The euro control..... it's wrong when it shows us to get snow and right when it shows no snow.....book it otoh, Caribou, ME has had a nice 3 days I'd say http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KCAR.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Euro boring and dry. Still nothing to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Eurog boring and dry. Still nothing to track ?? Are you looking at the same Day 10 euro as me?! That is probably the most epic pattern we've seen on the models all year. PV is actually shifted east so cold looks locked in, +PNA, block, shortwave out west. if everyone can accept that there's no threat until after New Years you'll be much happier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 ?? Are you looking at the same Day 10 euro as me?! That is probably the most epic pattern we've seen on the models all year. PV is actually shifted east so cold looks locked in, +PNA, block, shortwave out west. if everyone can accept that there's no threat until after New Years you'll be much happier. Yeah, it's a nice look. GFS has something quite similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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