December and a Hint of January Pattern Discussion

[snow.]

It is. Looks like one day aoa with return flow from the low passing from the north. Verbatim, torchmagoo will will get knocked down some in the averages. Decent winter month considering the last couple. The torch is the only thing that stands out as being truly warm. Overall it has felt like December with some snow to boot. 

 

ETA: looks like 2 lows pass to the north. Xmas week as a whole looks to be quite variable verbatim. 

 

 

I think the good snows for N & W created a perception that was colder than reality...Through the 23rd we will have had a 6 day cold/snowy period....the rest of the month - warm or climo..the last week still up in the air...but looks climo

 

12/1-2 - transition days

12/3 - 6 - Warm 

12/7 - transition day

12/8-12/13 - cold snowy

12/14 - 12/18 - climo

12/19 - 12/23 - torch

12/24 - 12/31??

[Bob Chill]

I think the good snows for N & W created a perception that was colder than reality...Through the 23rd we will have had a 6 day cold/snowy period....the rest of the month - warm or climo..the last week still up in the air...but looks climo

 

12/1-2 - transition days

12/3 - 6 - Warm 

12/7 - transition day

12/8-12/13 - cold snowy

12/14 - 12/18 - climo

12/19 - 12/23 - torch

12/24 - 12/31??

 

I think when you combine tday weekend through the end of the month very few will consider this Dec a warm month even if it goes on the books as one. The last 2 decembers were an insult to met winter. This one has been pretty fun. 

[snow.]

I think when you combine tday weekend through the end of the month very few will consider this Dec a warm month even if it goes on the books as one. The last 2 decembers were an insult to met winter. This one has been pretty fun. 

 

perhaps...we'll have to see what happens that last week...but a 6 day cold stretch doesn't really make a month cold...but you're right...after last 2 decembers this one felt different

[Bob Chill]

As expected, gefs pretty much says any wound up system goes west around nye. Signal is very much there but no members show a good snowstorm. 

 

After that looks better. Pretty cool look on all members and definitely active in the storm department. 

 

Plenty of time for things to evolve Christmas week but expectations should be kept low for any sig snows. Still a highly unlikely scenario. Early Jan could be fun. 

[WEATHER53]

It would be interesting to see since 1950 the number of +25, high or low, versus -25 for DCA. I would estimate that the +25's outnumber the -25's by at least a 5-1 margin.  Matt did correctly identify that the warm surges would outdo the cold one but the facts are, I think, that is usually the case around DC for DJF. 

[snow.]

It would be interesting to see since 1950 the number of +25, high or low, versus -25 for DCA. I would estimate that the +25's outnumber the -25's by at least a 5-1 margin.  Matt did correctly identify that the warm surges would outdo the cold one but the facts are, I think, that is usually the case around DC for DJF. 

 

yes...my call was really for the whole winter and just to point out that when all else is equal the warm shots will be warmer than the cold shots cold...my point was really just to highlight the oscillating nature of the winter..

 

You are right that we are limited on the low end for a daily departure,...though the monthly departures in 2000 and 1989 were both colder than the warmest months

 

in the last 30-35 decembers, we have had around 50% warm, 35% cold, and 15% normal (-1 to +1).  I think those super warm days are smoothed over so it is easier to go plus than minus in december, though we are still certainly capable of cold decembers...2010 was a -5...

[Ji]

Odds are decreasing for an all snow snowstorm this year it seems. Just too hard to snow in non niño years

[snow.]

Odds are decreasing for an all snow snowstorm this year it seems. Just too hard to snow in non niño years

 

we are probably going to have several things to track from day 10-15, so it won't be boring...good chance something comes out of the gulf during that window...it is just such a transient pattern it is hard to say what the track will be...suppressed?  west?  Miller B?

[WxUSAF]

Euro seems to like the idea of a storm next Friday.  Of course, 2 days ago it showed it as a huge cutter.  Now it's sort of a hybrid Miller-A/Miller-B.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro seems to like the idea of a storm next Friday.  Of course, 2 days ago it showed it as a huge cutter.  Now it's sort of a hybrid Miller-A/Miller-B.  

Where are you seeing this?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Odds are decreasing for an all snow snowstorm this year it seems. Just too hard to snow in non niño years

That's like saying the odds for a hurricane forming in the tropical Atlantic are decreasing...................and saying it on June 20.

[WEATHER53]

That's like saying the odds for a hurricane forming in the tropical Atlantic are decreasing...................and saying it on June 20.

Nothing but worthless pessimism from him.

[Ian]

That's like saying the odds for a hurricane forming in the tropical Atlantic are decreasing...................and saying it on June 20.

last few years that would have been a good forecast 

[WinterWxLuvr]

last few years that would have been a good forecast 

Over the long haul, it would be a terrible forecast.  Worse than terrible.

[WxUSAF]

Where are you seeing this?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

 

Also wunderground.  I can't tell how much (if any) precip it actually gives us because (of course) the couple times where it looks like we'd get precip, the wunderground maps crap out.  Looks like it wouldn't be much, but that it might be a little snow if I extrapolate the missing panels.  

[Ji]

Not much precip and marginal temps verbatim

[Ji]

What the....

 

CFS yesterday for January

 

[Ji]

CFS today for January

 

[Ian]

Why do they even run that model

[mitchnick]

Why do they even run that model

jobs

[HighStakes]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

 

Also wunderground.  I can't tell how much (if any) precip it actually gives us because (of course) the couple times where it looks like we'd get precip, the wunderground maps crap out.  Looks like it wouldn't be much, but that it might be a little snow if I extrapolate the missing panels.  

Not much around BWI. Maybe about .10 qpf. ending as some flurries. Looks a little wetter up this way and then the wave gets stronger north of us once it leaves the area.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Why do they even run that model

Exactly. A total piece of junk.

[chris87]

Why do they even run that model

 

NOAA mandate -- it's unfortunate that funds are diverted from improving short/medium range forecasting for climate-scale forecasts -- while it seems with good intentions it's hard to justify producing forecasts at these time scales while much work is still needed on shorter time scales -- it really comes down to what can be adequately sold to management and a pipe dream of 1 to 3 months forecasts is just too enticing to ignore

 

climate forecasting is difficult for a number of explainable reasons that are beyond the control of modelers at this point -- while we should be working towards more probabilistic climate forecasts (which would require more computing power than we have right now) -- might be something we'd rather undertake after we've really gotten the 1 to 7 day forecasts in the bag. 

[Amped]

Looks like a pretty dry pattern for California where they already have a drought.. I know there were quite a few there in the late 80s, early 90s. Not sure how it correlate to us.

 

[mitchnick]

Looks like a pretty dry pattern for California where they already have a drought.. I know there were quite a few there in the late 80s, early 90s. Not sure how it correlate to us.

 

 

oh how the GFS is trying to place that hole over DCA/BWI

[snowfan]

Looks like a pretty dry pattern for California where they already have a drought.. I know there were quite a few there in the late 80s, early 90s. Not sure how it correlate to us.

 

You're correct. LA didn't receive more than 2.5" of precip in January from 84 to 92. Unfortunately, there's really no direct correlation to that being good or bad for snowfall in our area. DCA had good and bad winters during those years. 

[Bob Chill]

Wow, euro ensembles last night lock us in for cold. Not frigid but cold. here's d10-15 5h mean:

 

 

 

 

6z gfs ensemble members show a very active storm track and plenty of southern stream moisture. Kitchen sink of solutions and tracks but moisture appears plentiful. Just need to connect something if the upcoming pattern verifies. IMO- there will be plenty to track over the next 2-3 weeks. Good times even if messy. 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Wow, euro ensembles last night lock us in for cold. Not frigid but cold. here's d10-15 5h mean:

eps_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

6z gfs ensemble members show a very active storm track and plenty of southern stream moisture. Kitchen sink of solutions and tracks but moisture appears plentiful. Just need to connect something if the upcoming pattern verifies. IMO- there will be plenty to track over the next 2-3 weeks. Good times even if messy.

It would be nice to time our best patterns with our best time period for winter weather. Nothing worse than getting the perfect pattern in early March

Edit: not our best pattern, but a good pattern

[Bob Chill]

It would be nice to time our best patterns with our best time period for winter weather. Nothing worse than getting the perfect pattern in early March

 

No kidding. This pattern wouldn't support snow in March. that's for sure. Looks a bit ripe for overrunning or CAD west track stuff. Much to be resolved if/when the boundary sets up. Nothing has me excited for a more classic type of storm. Just not there yet. But it's not boring or disastrous. 

[mdsnowlover]

Wow, euro ensembles last night lock us in for cold. Not frigid but cold. here's d10-15 5h mean:

 

 

eps_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

 

 

6z gfs ensemble members show a very active storm track and plenty of southern stream moisture. Kitchen sink of solutions and tracks but moisture appears plentiful. Just need to connect something if the upcoming pattern verifies. IMO- there will be plenty to track over the next 2-3 weeks. Good times even if messy. 

that pattern is close to 1994 cold, and that year we had ice not snow. 1994 was close to 1977 cold when bay froze and that year wasnt famous for snow either!! Maybe Wes remembers 77 cold.