stormtracker Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 As I was saying about the tail-end wave maybe getting more interesting on Monday-Tuesday, GGEM goes beast mode on it: Interesting. Too bad the GGEM is the only one showing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Interesting. Too bad the GGEM is the only one showing it Maybe the only operational showing it, but it is there in other places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Anyone see the latest Canadian snowfall accumulations map? JB tweeting about Xmas eve surprise for East Coast. Hmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Anyone see the latest Canadian snowfall accumulations map? JB tweeting about Xmas eve surprise for East Coast. Hmmmm... euru ensembles have a trailing wave as well. There's precip into our area on the means but temps are highly suspect. I'm out for now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 euru ensembles have a trailing wave as well. There's precip into our area on the means but temps are highly suspect. I'm out for now . I'm riding the Chill wave this winter. If you're out, I am too. Lost too many chips in the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 euru ensembles have a trailing wave as well. There's precip into our area on the means but temps are highly suspect. I'm out for now . Happy hour is about the same as 12z for the trailing wave. Maybe ever so slightly closer to the coast. Euro Op was a total punt. Nice to hear the ensembles might have something, but yeah, even with cold 850s, surface temps could be a problem given this comes right after torchmageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 12z euro sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Anyone see the latest Canadian snowfall accumulations map? JB tweeting about Xmas eve surprise for East Coast. Hmmmm... http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Canadian looks like a bunch of pluie to me. GFS hell bent on some sort of storm on nye. Now we're down inside of 290 hours. Gettin close... If there is a storm on or around that timeframe and the gfs never really loses it for more than a day or 2 then I'm going to be impressed. Even if it's a rainstorm I'll still be impressed. GFS is also bent on dropping down the pv into a more friendly area for us. We'll see how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html All in. Down for a trailing end snowy surprise on Christmas Eve. I say lock it. Lock it and throw away the key. When people say the GFS is hellbent on a NYE storm, does that mean just a good 1-5 inch storm, or something memorable? (I know its far enough out, but I like to torture myself with unreasonable expectations) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 All in. Down for a trailing end snowy surprise on Christmas Eve. I say lock it. Lock it and throw away the key. When people say the GFS is hellbent on a NYE storm, does that mean just a good 1-5 inch storm, or something memorable? (I know its far enough out, but I like to torture myself with unreasonable expectations) Too early for that but it would be a nice birthday present if we get a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The 12z euro sucked The euro always sucks. Stay cool. As we enter the new year the EPO kicks in again negative. The game is on................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 When people say the GFS is hellbent on a NYE storm, does that mean just a good 1-5 inch storm, or something memorable? (I know its far enough out, but I like to torture myself with unreasonable expectations)You're new here so i'll shed some light. You'll see us talk about storm signals at long lead times. It only means there seems to be a model trend and overall pattern that supports a storm. Could be any precip type or nothing at all. We usually only talk about them when there is a "chance" that it could have frozen precip if it happens at all. The short story is anything outside of 7 days shouldn't have any real expectations. Especially how much and what type. IMO it appears that the odds favor a storm during this period. And the pattern doesn't favor a decent snow unless we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 You're new here so i'll shed some light. You'll see us talk about storm signals at long lead times. It only means there seems to be a model trend and overall pattern that supports a storm. Could be any precip type or nothing at all. We usually only talk about them when there is a "chance" that it could have frozen precip if it happens at all. The short story is anything outside of 7 days shouldn't have any real expectations. Especially how much and what type. IMO it appears that the odds favor a storm during this period. And the pattern doesn't favor a decent snow unless we get lucky. Good points. Yes, we usually look for something in the pattern that can "support" a storm, details aside. If the GFS is cranking up a big coastal but it doesn't really jive with the upper air features, that's a red flag. But in this case, it does seem to support some kind of event and it's been hitting that time period for several cycles now. In the end it could be crap here, or maybe something decent...those are the details to hammer out later. It's encouraging though, and I'm cautiously optimistic by what the GFS is showing as we close out December and enter January. We'll see, but I'm just glad to not see a persistent huge SE ridge that won't go away, or otherwise something that says "hell with this, wake me up when it gets interesting!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 euru ensembles have a trailing wave as well. There's precip into our area on the means but temps are highly suspect. I'm out for now . "highly suspect" because temps support snow but you ain't buying it or "highly suspect" because you don't think temps would support snow verbatim on the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Despite the surprising consistency of the GFS op for such a timelead, the ensembles still show a wide range of solutions. A few do look a fair bit like the Op, but others certainly don't. The one consistent thing is that the pattern becomes quite a bit more active by next weekend with an active southern stream. 18z GEFS also has a nice ridge-bridge over the pole for much of the run. So, signs of blocking at the pole starting to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 "highly suspect" because temps support snow but you ain't buying it or "highly suspect" because you don't think temps would support snow verbatim on the ensembles? Precip is light and temps are borderline at best. But it's the mean so who knows. Slow moving front on the heels of a scorched earth weekend and so so cold behind gives me little confidence of supporting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Precip is light and temps are borderline at best. But it's the mean so who knows. Slow moving front on the heels of a scorched earth weekend and so so cold behind gives me little confidence of supporting snow. that's what I thought you meant but just wanted to be certain before I have you served Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 hey, anybody in the mood to worry? how about considering the .64 degrees C drop in max temp in just the last 4 days of that warm pool in the N PAC that's supporting our -EPO ridge? today: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif 12/15: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-131215.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 You're new here so i'll shed some light. You'll see us talk about storm signals at long lead times. It only means there seems to be a model trend and overall pattern that supports a storm. Could be any precip type or nothing at all. We usually only talk about them when there is a "chance" that it could have frozen precip if it happens at all. The short story is anything outside of 7 days shouldn't have any real expectations. Especially how much and what type. IMO it appears that the odds favor a storm during this period. And the pattern doesn't favor a decent snow unless we get lucky. Thanks, I'm here to learn. Though I do love to dig myself into these storms some 12 days prior to events, just to make the disappointment all more real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The absolute best way to make winter seem like it comes and goes in a blink is to constantly look 10+ days ahead. It's tempting, I do it myself, but if you can make yourself not do it, at the very least winter "seems" longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 hey, anybody in the mood to worry? how about considering the .64 degrees C drop in max temp in just the last 4 days of that warm pool in the N PAC that's supporting our -EPO ridge? today: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif 12/15: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-131215.gif Thanks for the great news!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Mitch, the next uber -epo will take care of that. And I'm not worried either way. Early Jan -ao will make everything right with the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Mitch, the next uber -epo will take care of that. And I'm not worried either way. Early Jan -ao will make everything right with the world. I was just trolling around trying to relax after another night of removing wallpaper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 I was trolling too. We all know the ao won't go negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 talk about a switch from prior years, the CFS2 has got Asia on fire thru the entire winter and especially March http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/arT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS sure has that front hanging around the coast as of 18Z Monday like it wants to do something with it as in, send something up it EDIT: nahhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 What's all that moisture gathering at 192 on the GFS. That's new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 What's all that moisture gathering at 192 on the GFS. That's new. weak SLP that slides off the coast. precip up to the i-95 corridor. 1006 low pressure. zfast mover... sticking with the theme so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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