aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Gfs looks a little more wet on people's hot. Don't make your golf plans yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The euro with rain next week? It's hard to tell from the maps I can see. Doesn't look like that "sweet" run we're waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 6z GFS contines to show a signal for a coastal on nye with cold air locked in. Looks as if it temps stay below normal for the last week of Dec. I still am intrigued with the stalled front just off the coast next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 WTH did the Euro do last night with the major cutter next Thurs-Fri?!? Not shown by any other global that I could see. GGEM hints at a coastal in the next Friday timeframe. GGEM has a coastal this coming Monday out of nowhere…it's a rain-snow deal. 0z and 6z GFS remarkably consistent with the NYE/NYD coastal idea. Maybe next week is not as quiet as we all think it'll be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 WTH did the Euro do last night with the major cutter next Thurs-Fri?!? Not shown by any other global that I could see. GGEM hints at a coastal in the next Friday timeframe. GGEM has a coastal this coming Monday out of nowhere…it's a rain-snow deal. 0z and 6z GFS remarkably consistent with the NYE/NYD coastal idea. Maybe next week is not as quiet as we all think it'll be? Yeah, and what happened to the Euro's hole to the center of the earth that it had in the southwest? Seems to be a pretty major continuity break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah, and what happened to the Euro's hole to the center of the earth that it had in the southwest? Seems to be a pretty major continuity break. Hard to tell with the 24hour spacing on Ewall and others, but I'm guessing that it sent a piece of that east, which the Euro phases with a northern stream vort and produces that cutter. The other globals show the northern stream vort producing a weak clipper at the same time around next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Wow, holy -epo reload with the 18z gefs. 500 height anoms say bring on the hounds. Starts out west first bit this is definitely the first run showing another outbreak before we close the month. Outlier or trendsetter? There would be a pretty sizable lag...still, there is opportunity for something to sync up toward the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 There would be a pretty sizable lag...still, there is opportunity for something to sync up toward the end of the month individual gefs members are all over the place. no surprise there. The favored track it appears to be messy. No surprise there either. One thing that could help is the ridging that keeps appearing in northern greenland. Could displace the pv a bit further south and move the storm track with it. Still messy if it goes like that but maybe a better chance at snow in the cities for a time. Euro op last night is on it's own. Euro ensembles don't really agree and neither does the gfs in any way. The ns vort is there but the euro op is the only one that phased it up. I suppose the more interesting part of the last week of the month is the active northern stream zipping along with a pna ridge. Any real threat that materializes will be at short leads. Keeps us on our toes. Overall, the period post xmas is basically unresolved with a myriad of possibilities. Southern stream seems to wake up again. Shouldn't be boring like the week we are in now. But absolutely not head over heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Happy new years is back. Storm signal remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Happy new years is back. Storm signal remains. For a deterministic run to have this kind of consistency at ~300 hours is pretty surprising. I could see something sneaking up on us next week as well. Last night's GGEM had the more impressive tail-end wave on Monday-Tuesday, even though it was mostly rain for us. GFS also has a more impressive tail-ender than the last few runs I've seen, and closer to the coast. Turns into a nice snowstorm for the fishies. Next Thursday-Friday has some Miller B potential. We all know how those usually work for us, but those two combined are worth some modest interest before Snow-venge 2014TM arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 For a deterministic run to have this kind of consistency at ~300 hours is pretty surprising. I could see something sneaking up on us next week as well. Last night's GGEM had the more impressive tail-end wave on Monday-Tuesday, even though it was mostly rain for us. GFS also has a more impressive tail-ender than the last few runs I've seen, and closer to the coast. Turns into a nice snowstorm for the fishies. Next Thursday-Friday has some Miller B potential. We all know how those usually work for us, but those two combined are worth some modest interest before Snow-venge 2014TM arrives. Yeah, 200+ is fantasy land, but I've seen the GFS be right (signal wise) than wrong when it keeps hitting the same beat. It won't be EXACTLY like it's shown in all likelyhood, but I bet there'll be something for NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Don't have any specifics but the gfs was pretty consistent from long range with the storminess around the first weekend of this month. Seems like it was at least a week plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Yeah, 200+ is fantasy land, but I've seen the GFS be right (signal wise) than wrong when it keeps hitting the same beat. It won't be EXACTLY like it's shown in all likelyhood, but I bet there'll be something for NY They key is watching how the PV in Canada evolves over time. Getting that nice dogbone east-west shape with a 50/50 type low and some ridging overtop of it in Greenland and the pole is critical for this thing to take a track to our south. If the PV lifts farther north, the low would probably cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 As I was saying about the tail-end wave maybe getting more interesting on Monday-Tuesday, GGEM goes beast mode on it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 might need a temp forecast contest for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 All the globals have a big deep vort moving through at that time, really a question of how deep it digs. GGEM is the strongest and deepest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 As I was saying about the tail-end wave maybe getting more interesting on Monday-Tuesday, GGEM goes beast mode on it: There have been a gfs member or two over the past 24 hours show that same type of solution. We'll see in about 15 minutes what the latest batch looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 close up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 At first I thought that was in celsius then did a discount double check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 close up gfs_t2min_washdc_79.png Wow! Let's hope that freezer was enhanced by snow cover from just a few days prior. I know it's on the drawing broad anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 They key is watching how the PV in Canada evolves over time. Getting that nice dogbone east-west shape with a 50/50 type low and some ridging overtop of it in Greenland and the pole is critical for this thing to take a track to our south. If the PV lifts farther north, the low would probably cut. I always love 288 hour snowstorms when the GFS has the defecto 850 low to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'm sorry but this is sick. There have been many hints at gl ridging for the last 4 days or so. It kept showing up over and over. Just yesterday the -epo reload started looking tasty. Now lala gfs connects them over the pole. We'll see what the ensembles say but there is at least a chance at not only blocking and active ss but also a major arctic invasion that doesn't stall out over the middle of the country and hit us in modest pieces and scattered cold days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I always love 288 hour snowstorms when the GFS has the defecto 850 low to our north. Lots of time for those details to be worked out Certainly I think a mix event is more likely than all snow given the pattern at the time. But there's certainly a storm signal at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'm sorry but this is sick. There have been many hints at gl ridging for the last 4 days or so. It kept showing up over and over. Just yesterday the -epo reload started looking tasty. Now lala gfs connects them over the pole. We'll see what the ensembles say but there is at least a chance at not only blocking and active ss but also a major arctic invasion that doesn't stall out over the middle of the country and hit us in modest pieces and scattered cold days. eponao.JPG DT is on board**ALERT** POTENTIAL for prolonged period of SERIOUS winter wx DEC 30- JAN 15. POLAR VORTEX Looks to be forced SOUTH- flipping AO to Neg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 DT is on board **ALERT** POTENTIAL for prolonged period of SERIOUS winter wx DEC 30- JAN 15. POLAR VORTEX Looks to be forced SOUTH- flipping AO to Neg it's hard to believe Dave when he makes no spelling errors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Geez, when was the last time DC was below 0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Here's why I'm not yet that excited about the 31st. Look at all the variation in the 500mb forecasts It's way too early to even start touting a cold wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Here's why I'm not yet that excited about the 31st. Look at all the variation in the 500mb forecasts It's way too early to even start touting a cold wave. Dec_19_f288_2013.gif To be fair, i don't think anyone is touting a cold wave before the year is over. Cooler than normal period inside the last week of the month seems ok. Snow chances exist but far from anything classic. And even I'm not all that pumped about it. Just interested because there is nothing else to do. I think the signs of blocking have been getting stronger for 4 days now. And it will take longer than expected. Early Jan has some valid hope at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Geez, when was the last time DC was below 0?Jan 1994, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 There are about 3-5 (depending on point of view) members that have at least enough of something to be interested in for Mon night into Tuesday. One is just............well, we won't talk about that. But this does go along with what WxUSA was saying earlier concerning the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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