Ji Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Because we get that lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 ha..a transient block over baffin island..just in time for our storm you just admitted on record that there is a chance here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 you just admitted on record that there is a chance here or, he described one of many absurd solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 There is a mini block over northern Greenland day 8-12. Normally 522dm is not a blocking ridge but it does seem to trap in the PV to it's south for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I didn't see this posted anywhere and thought maybe this might be the best place to put it...but this is pretty good news for DC snowlovers by way of good snow totals for I-95 cities to your north: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2557661 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I didn't see this posted anywhere and thought maybe this might be the best place to put it...but this is pretty good news for DC snowlovers by way of good snow totals for I-95 cities to your north: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41600-winter-2013-14-medium-range-discussion/?p=2557661 honestly...I love Don, but that is just about the most randomly trivial, statistically insignificant thing he could have posted...especially with the caveat that every year in his sample had more snow in December than DCA this season so far..thanks for posting though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 honestly...I love Don, but that is just about the most randomly trivial, statistically insignificant thing he could have posted...especially with the caveat that every year in his sample had more snow in December than DCA this season so far..thanks for posting though... Why that worked for DC could probably be explained for a past climate-- a snowy December for Philly, NYC, and Boston used to always include above average December snow for DC too because we used to not be that far off from the general Mid-Atlantic snow climate. I'm sure there are similar statements we could make that started like: "Whenever Philadelphia, Baltimore, and DC had 6+" snow for _________, Richmond also had _______." Then Richmond fell off the Richmond-Baltimore corridor for snow climatology, and now we've fallen off the DC-Philadelphia corridor for snow climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 honestly...I love Don, but that is just about the most randomly trivial, statistically insignificant thing he could have posted...especially with the caveat that every year in his sample had more snow in December than DCA this season so far..thanks for posting though... Maybe whatever is supposed to show up around New Year's happens for DC on Dec. 31. Although not sure if this winter has an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Maybe whatever is supposed to show up around New Year's happens for DC on Dec. 31. It's happening isn't it....and when it does Ian will name it the JO storm....pronounced "HO" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's happening isn't it....and when it does Ian will name it the JO storm....pronounced "HO" Lots more southern activity showing on the gfs ens than there's been the last couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Maybe whatever is supposed to show up around New Year's happens for DC on Dec. 31. Although not sure if this winter has an analog. It's a blend of 95-96 and 01-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's a blend of 95-96 and 01-02 I wasnt living here on Jan 96. Pleeze pleeze please give us a redux. It would be a debut for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's a blend of 95-96 and 01-02 Those stats may have some merit Matt. When something has only happened 12 times in a century it's worth paying attention to. Maybe after winter is over we can revisit this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I wasnt living here on Jan 96. Pleeze pleeze please give us a redux. It would be a debut for me. Wasn't 02-03 a really good winter up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wasn't 02-03 a really good winter up here? na, it sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wasn't 02-03 a really good winter up here? It was good but there wasn't flooding rains after an epic dump. I had friends calling me when i was in CO talking about the huge snow. Even being out on the Rockies I was still a little jealous. Big snows in our area will always be special no matter where I live. I just hope I see another one before its too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wasn't 02-03 a really good winter up here? One of my favorites, not far behind 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Euro ensembles decent from Xmas - new year. Pna ridge favorable and temps mostly aob through the end of the run. A good track wirh a ns vort could give us something modest. Still looks like anything wound up goes West without a good bit of luck and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Euro ensembles decent from Xmas - new year. Pna ridge favorable and temps mostly aob through the end of the run. A good track wirh a ns vort could give us something modest. Still looks like anything wound up goes West without a good bit of luck and timing. I don't see the temps being much below normal, I still like what I wrote yesterday about the pattern bet at least one of those days ends up above normal as a low tracks across the lakes. I actually think our chances of getting an inch during the week may be slightly below normal because of the positive NAO. It's a pattern that might give our western guys some love but probably gives us heartburn with a mix our best hope unless we get a clipper dusting like last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 yeah..It has pretty much gone according to plan for me for DC metro, and you for DC as well...mangled, mixy events....I wouldn't necessarily have predicted 2 moderate events for the far NW areas, but it isn't rare for December..At some point I may start a thread listing some of the events, just to jog some memories...still nice to get a couple of events, even here in the city Yeah, we definitely were rocking there for the NW guys from an extraordinarily active flow. We had a very high frequency of high amplitude waves for December. At one point, I counted 7, which is extremely abnormal. This tempered the storm track and generally prevented full-blown cutters. That active wave train now has left us and is over in the eastern hemisphere (and hence the abnormal snow out there). It will return here soon along with an enhanced STJ but the cold air looks to be the big problem. While I was aware of this issue back when I made the original storm call, I felt there would be enough EPO presence to allow for a widespread mess from the Midwest to the East. This is turning out to be wrong. Oh well... I'm looking forward to the stats/info if you decide to post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 I don't see the temps being much below normal, I still like what I wrote yesterday about the pattern bet at least one of those days ends up above normal as a low tracks across the lakes. I actually think our chances of getting an inch during the week may be slightly below normal because of the positive NAO. It's a pattern that might give our western guys some love but probably gives us heartburn with a mix our best hope unless we get a clipper dusting like last night. 2m ens mean temp anoms show modest below normal from the 27th - 1st. Coldest anomalies centered in NE. But I agree, no block means warm ups prior to frontal passages. Ens mean won't pick that up at all. JB says 1983 cold though. He might need new glasses. I have no idea how accurate the weeklies are but the latest run shows basically the same pattern post christmas through mid Jan. Ridging west, tough centered over the great lakes, and no block. I'll penny and nickel my way to climo! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Euro ensembles decent from Xmas - new year. Pna ridge favorable and temps mostly aob through the end of the run. A good track wirh a ns vort could give us something modest. Still looks like anything wound up goes West without a good bit of luck and timing. I was all like But then I don't see the temps being much below normal, I still like what I wrote yesterday about the pattern bet at least one of those days ends up above normal as a low tracks across the lakes. I actually think our chances of getting an inch during the week may be slightly below normal because of the positive NAO. It's a pattern that might give our western guys some love but probably gives us heartburn with a mix our best hope unless we get a clipper dusting like last night. I think we're out of the game until like Jan 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 LOL tracker. I wasn't trying to imply cold. Just seasonal with a potential bias for cooler than norm. Basically I re-iterated what the euro ens mean was showing. We're in late Dec now. Seasonal temps can get the job done if the storm track cooperates in some fashion or another. I'm less than thrilled at the looks we're getting but it's not snow cancel at least. Good luck has to eventually stop losing to bad luck. Next year is pointing towards a nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Randy, I wouldn't give up yet beyond Jan 1st though the pattern still doesn't look great we could always get lucky. lol, Bob, I know it's getting bad when you're already looking at next year's enso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Randy, I wouldn't give up yet beyond Jan 1st though the pattern still doesn't look great we could always get lucky. lol, Bob, I know it's getting bad when you're already looking at next year's enso. I'm starting a winter 14-15 thread on Jan 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So we wait til mid Jan? Ugh. And after that we have to start worrying about sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z GFS has the New Year's storm again. A few runs in the last day have shown something there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 So we wait til mid Jan? Ugh. And after that we have to start worrying about sun angle. Not until late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z GFS has the New Year's storm again. A few runs in the last day have shown something there. It's been unusually consistent so a signal for sure. Getting it to go underneath us will be a challenge but it will give us something to track until the pattern improves in mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's been unusually consistent so a signal for sure. Getting it to go underneath us will be a challenge but it will give us something to track until the pattern improves in mid Feb. Can't resist can you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.