WEATHER53 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 snow was right week ago about missing chance at penetrating arctic shots. We got cold but not exceptional. We aren't warm but a minus 50 monthly gets wiped out by 3 days 15+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 snow was right week ago about missing chance at penetrating arctic shots. We got cold but not exceptional. We aren't warm but a minus 50 monthly gets wiped out by 3 days 15+. I actually thought we had a good chance at a super cold day like you...just didnt materialize...we are only about -15 cumulative right now...so it will get wiped out pretty easily, and then we see what happens the 10 days to end the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 This is true, it is a pretty tricky pattern. But, the one thing that has been persistent, and looks to remain so in the medium-to-long range is the +AO. A snowfall of any consequence with a +AO is so rare as to be dismissed until all evidence points otherwise this far south. Might a storm like the 12/8 produce here? Perhaps. But, it's much more likely to be a degree or two colder at the surface with ZR here than 10* colder at 700-850MB. And, quite frankly, I don't give a crap about a heavy ZR event that's going to knock my power out. I'd rather it be 32.5* and rain than 28* and rain. Not sure about that....still a tricky changeable pattern...but for me and you...if we lose our cold air source, and don't have a block and lose the southern stream...I'm not too confident...a gradient pattern is bad for me and you...as long as heights w/respect to normal are lower to our north than they are here and to the south, we aren't getting a good storm track...the low anomaly to our north pretty much guarantees storms will cut west...next 10 days or so look warm and uneventful to me...after Christmas, i dont know...this has been a hard pattern to nail down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 thanks...you have done really well with the hybrid nature of the pattern...I just get frustrated because I know what it means for my backyard....and ultimately that is where I forecast...I know you know this, but the snow gradient here is not that uncommon for December...it is a bit more of an extreme example this year, but to have heavy snow amounts roughly NW of a line from Leesburg to Frederick to Westminster (I know the N/NW Baltimore burbs did well too) versus southeast of that line has happened quite a bit.....The majority of DC metro has 1-5" this winter so far....probably <4" for most..I have 1.5"..climo for DEC.......I know you speak to a much broader area and to larger scale ideas than I do, but if a storm gives York PA, 6-10" and gives me 1", it doesn't mean a lot to me...we in DC are lone wolves......I give you mad props if a storm can develop in your window, and I am pretty confident it will nail 40N and give me 0.25" No, no, you're right. This is more of the same for your immediate area. In fact, this period ahead was never supposed to be a clean snow threat anyway...more messy/widespread. However, the transition from EPO to PNA has hurt the Arctic Supply. And while the cold was always supposed to become "remnant" during this time, it could hurt wave genesis once baroclinic zone gets to the coast. So, overall, a lot of "meh" trends ahead and January still looks meh. I suppose at some point, the EPO pattern may return once the tropical forcing returns to the eastern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 No, no, you're right. This is more of the same for your immediate area. In fact, this period ahead was never supposed to be a clean snow threat anyway...more messy/widespread. However, the transition from EPO to PNA has hurt the Arctic Supply. And while the cold was always supposed to become "remnant" during this time, it could hurt wave genesis once baroclinic zone gets to the coast. So, overall, a lot of "meh" trends ahead and January still looks meh. I suppose at some point, the EPO pattern may return once the tropical forcing returns to the eastern hemisphere. I don't see anything exciting either. There's quite a bit of spread and lr looks are changing a good bit every day but nothing jumps out except maybe losing the uber +AO. IMO- christmas week looks like fronts and cuts to the west if there's an organized system with temps being normal on the average for the period. Hardly unusual. The biggest caveat with having something like the epo ridge being the main driver with nothing else important cooperating is that when it flattens we need something else to take over. The pna can't do it by itself. Maybe the monster storm progged for europe aids in getting a -nao. I'm grasping here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 No, no, you're right. This is more of the same for your immediate area. In fact, this period ahead was never supposed to be a clean snow threat anyway...more messy/widespread. However, the transition from EPO to PNA has hurt the Arctic Supply. And while the cold was always supposed to become "remnant" during this time, it could hurt wave genesis once baroclinic zone gets to the coast. So, overall, a lot of "meh" trends ahead and January still looks meh. I suppose at some point, the EPO pattern may return once the tropical forcing returns to the eastern hemisphere. yeah..It has pretty much gone according to plan for me for DC metro, and you for DC as well...mangled, mixy events....I wouldn't necessarily have predicted 2 moderate events for the far NW areas, but it isn't rare for December..At some point I may start a thread listing some of the events, just to jog some memories...still nice to get a couple of events, even here in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 12z GFS keeps the -EPO rocking through the end of the run and keeps us normal to below normal after the Ion torchfest this weekend. As Matt and HM have said, it looks a bit Nina-ish for several days after the cutter/torch with northern stream dominance, but la-la-land has some split flow coming back. Not a snowy run verbatim, but probably as good a look as we can expect over the next 2 weeks. Still seems to have that weak ridging over the pole way out past Day 10 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 12z GFS keeps the -EPO rocking through the end of the run and keeps us normal to below normal after the Ion torchfest this weekend. As Matt and HM have said, it looks a bit Nina-ish for several days after the cutter/torch with northern stream dominance, but la-la-land has some split flow coming back. Not a snowy run verbatim, but probably as good a look as we can expect over the next 2 weeks. Still seems to have that weak ridging over the pole way out past Day 10 as well. GFS is continuing to show the possibility of flow to stop being so progressive. Rex off the CA coast and weak but stable ridging building into the NAO region. There are signs.... xmas week and into early jan cannot be written off at all tbh. I'm not head over heels but the flow certainly looks to change and nothing is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS is continuing to show the possibility of flow to stop being so progressive. Rex off the CA coast and weak but stable ridging building into the NAO region. There are signs.... xmas week and into early jan cannot be written off at all tbh. I'm not head over heels but the flow certainly looks to change and nothing is a disaster. Certainly not. From this range, the Xmas-New Year's week looks at least as good as last week at similar range. Just depends if the pieces can line up appropriately. Cold air around and signs of split flow coming back. I'm very intrigued by the ridging over the pole the GFS is advertising (and has been advertising for a couple days). It's not a mega-block by any means, but maybe it's a start of something? Equally likely it's just transitory, but it does have some ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Certainly not. From this range, the Xmas-New Year's week looks at least as good as last week at similar range. Just depends if the pieces can line up appropriately. Cold air around and signs of split flow coming back. I'm very intrigued by the ridging over the pole the GFS is advertising (and has been advertising for a couple days). It's not a mega-block by any means, but maybe it's a start of something? Equally likely it's just transitory, but it does have some ensemble support. euro is showing the same general thing around the pole. 12z gfs op is eyecandy in lala. Definite split flow and -nao. PV is pinned verbatim. I think patience is a better outlook because IF things evolve like this it usually takes longer. I'm a little encouraged. Who can get mad at a panel like this? Hopefully ensembles agree in some form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 yeah..It has pretty much gone according to plan for me for DC metro, and you for DC as well...mangled, mixy events....I wouldn't necessarily have predicted 2 moderate events for the far NW areas, but it isn't rare for December..At some point I may start a thread listing some of the events, just to jog some memories...still nice to get a couple of events, even here in the city Matt. I was thinking of doing a CWG post on Miller As and Bs which would show how we get a good snow (KU) in dc with a millerb and one where we pretty much get screwed so i'd appreciate such a post. I'd also probalby would post two miller As as we can get screwed by them too depending on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Matt. I was thinking of doing a CWG post on Miller As and Bs which would show how we get a good snow (KU) in dc with a millerb and one where we pretty much get screwed so i'd appreciate such a post. I'd also probalby would post two miller As as we can get screwed by them too depending on the track. Nice. Looking forward to it. Lots of good examples of Miller B's screwing us...tons lol...There are some pretty good choices for Miller A's too...12/10/92, one of the 97-98 events...I think March 14-15 1999..many others.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Gotta like the look from the Euro at 240. Kind of following the 12z run yesterday with an active SJ and strong HPs up north. I know some people were honking of a storm around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Euro, Canadian, NOGAPS and GFS all advertising a potentially potent Clipper/Mauler/Screamer late next week. Looks northern stream dominated for all of next week post-torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Lol is the LR EURO the new GFS? Shows a 1065 HP in the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Lol is the LR EURO the new GFS? Shows a 1065 HP in the CONUS. WOW! May be hard to stand under that kind of pressure!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 1056, not 1065. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 1056, not 1065. 1059 on the euro into montana before significantly weakening to 1056 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Euro, Canadian, NOGAPS and GFS all advertising a potentially potent Clipper/Mauler/Screamer late next week. Looks northern stream dominated for all of next week post-torch. Yea, enough gfs ens members show it to not ignore. Verbatim, the euro would phase the gulf energy and moisture.....overrunning followed by a bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 1059 on the euro into montana before significantly weakening to 1056 I stand corrected. GEFS P007 is just epic and classic. Shows the ~Day 10 Mauler, precip dies in the Apps downslope, the s/w Miller B's and absolutely clocks SNE. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Verbatim, the euro would phase the gulf energy and moisture.....overrunning followed by a bowling ball. When is this phasing and overrunning? Can't see that on the stupid Ewall maps. 25-26th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I see 1065 here, am I wrong? NM I counted the isobars, the #s are overlapped it messed with me, either way, impressive. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013121712!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I see 1065 here, am I wrong? http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013121712!!/ That's the 1055 contour. Look at the contour lines. It does kind of look like a 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 I see 1065 here, am I wrong? http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013121712!!/ ouch, that's hard on the eyes. count the isobars. It's the 1055 contour eta: what highly trained ninja wxusaf said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 GEFS P007 is just epic and classic. Shows the ~Day 10 Mauler, precip dies in the Apps downslope, the s/w Miller B's and absolutely clocks SNE. Perfect. GFS is missing the gulf connection. Euro is always right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 When is this phasing and overrunning? Can't see that on the stupid Ewall maps. 25-26th? I want to post the maps but I know I shouldn't. Precip starts breaking out in AL/GA/SC on the 26th and streams ne. Vort diving out of canada is closed off in MN and digging. h5 vort maps looks pretty good. I'm not sure phasing is the best term here. More like connecting. The energy moving ne out of the gulf looks to start interacting with the strong vort diving down. We both know this is all crazy fantasy talk but it's fun to talk about nonetheless. At the very least there is a signal for something to dive out of canada. Euro op is all by itself with the gulf moisture. one can dream.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I want to post the maps but I know I shouldn't. Precip starts breaking out in AL/GA/SC on the 26th and streams ne. Vort diving out of canada is closed off in MN and digging. h5 vort maps looks pretty good. I'm not sure phasing is the best term here. More like connecting. The energy moving ne out of the gulf looks to start interacting with the strong vort diving down. We both know this is all crazy fantasy talk but it's fun to talk about nonetheless. At the very least there is a signal for something to dive out of canada. Euro op is all by itself with the gulf moisture. one can dream.... Yep. the 12Z euro ens mean doesn't like it. Compare its 240hr surface to the operational's. Different planets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yep. the 12Z euro ens mean doesn't like it. Compare its 240hr surface to the operational's. Different planets. Yea, it was nothing but a weather porn tease. There's really not much to look for over the next 5 days or so. Once the frontal passage and subsequent setup is better resolved it will be more meaningful pointing out things embedded in the flow. But you know me. I'll point whatever out that looks like it will snow even though its fantasy land. It's my self proclaimed job. But I'm a smarter weenie now. I'll post it but won't expect it or care if it vanishes. One of these days in the next couple of 5 years or so we'll jackpot again. Would hate to miss seeing it at the longest lead possible. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Happy New Year from the 18Z GFS! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=324ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_324_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=336&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_348_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=348&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 ...and "YES", the surface is cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Happy New Year from the 18Z GFS! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=324ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_324_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=336&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_348_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=348&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 ...and "YES", the surface is cold enough ha..a transient block over baffin island..just in time for our storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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