Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 A week out and it's already going backwards? Hmmmm...I'm going max temp is 52 yea, but even then the ground will be a broiler to the snow on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It's 180+ hours away, but that's probably our next trackable threat. Looks like a repeat of last Sunday. I'd take it in December. GFS says ''what warm up?" Regarding next weekend...1040mb high over Quebec w/ temps -35 just over the US border. Then the east goes into the freezer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 yea, but even then the ground will be a broiler to the snow on sunday. Sun angle too....days getting longer and all that...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Sun angle too....days getting longer and all that...lol Next month, the sun angle will pierce through metal and turn it molten. One can never overstate the sun angle around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 You sure Wes? Looks like snow/sleet initially? Could be, I only looked at the 192 hrs and it had lots of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Could be, I only looked at the 192 hrs and it had lots of sleet. yea, it does verbatim. but @ 192 I'm being silly dissecting the column. Give me a 1040hp in that spot and I'll take my chances any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 yea, it does verbatim. but @ 192 I'm being silly dissecting the column. Give me a 1040hp in that spot and I'll take my chances any day. Lol, the euro has next saturday and Sunday in the 60s. takes a second low towards the lakes and I think has max on Saturday of 70. One of the models is wrong, well, both might be wrong but one has winter weather while the other has a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 yep, euro is slower with the front. I'll take a blend with slower fropa, low 60's for one day or 2, and no white xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Lol, the euro has next saturday and Sunday in the 60s. takes a second low towards the lakes and I think has max on Saturday of 70. One of the models is wrong, well, both might be wrong but one has winter weather while the other has a torch. Operational gfs is an outlier compared to its ens members with the speed of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Euro doesn't really clear the front until xmas eve. Slowest op I've seen so far with any globals. Vebatim it's pretty much a complete disaster but not an unexpected solution. We have plenty of time to get warmer and slower with the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Euro doesn't really clear the front until xmas eve. Slowest op I've seen so far with any globals. Vebatim it's pretty much a complete disaster but not an unexpected solution. We have plenty of time to get warmer and slower with the progression. warmer med and long range progs haven't worked out so well this year they'll both be different by tomorrow at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Euro doesn't really clear the front until xmas eve. Slowest op I've seen so far with any globals. Vebatim it's pretty much a complete disaster but not an unexpected solution. We have plenty of time to get warmer and slower with the progression. If you look at the GEFS ensembles it is an outlier but there are a bunch of them slower than the GFS. There was one really slow euro run earlier in the week that had three 60 plus days, this run pretty much went back towards that outlier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Sure looks like next weekend is a pattern reload. A warm-up with a few days in the 50s/60s followed by an arctic frontal passage and a CAD event. Timing of course is up in the air this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 12/22 Event maybe more wet than white. 12/28 is where the potential is at, the ridging in western Canada should be in good spot, and getting a good cold high in place hasn't been an hard this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 12/22 Event maybe more wet than white. 12/28 is where the potential is at, the ridging in western Canada should be in good spot, and getting a good cold high in place hasn't been an hard this year.It will likely be a mixed event if it's an event at all. I was a little surprised to see the gfs have a similar solution 2 runs in a row. Wes is right. I went and checked the ens. Euro slow solution is an outlier but still quite plausible. Even with a faster solution its far from a lock that a second wave is going to happen. Could be all rain before the cold. I like but don't love the pattern after fropa. No block is troubling and the config could cut off a southern connection. Might be ns only. On the other hand I'll never get mad at a wc ridge either. Crazy active late nov-dec no matter which way you slice it. Seems to want to be cold and wet and warmups brief. Exact opposite from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 It will likely be a mixed event if it's an event at all. I was a little surprised to see the gfs have a similar solution 2 runs in a row. Wes is right. I went and checked the ens. Euro slow solution is an outlier but still quite plausible. Even with a faster solution its far from a lock that a second wave is going to happen. Could be all rain before the cold. I like but don't love the pattern after fropa. No block is troubling and the config could cut off a southern connection. Might be ns only. On the other hand I'll never get mad at a wc ridge either. Crazy active late nov-dec no matter which way you slice it. Seems to want to be cold and wet and warmups brief. Exact opposite from last year. Earlier, the gfs was an outlier among its own ensemble. Now, not so much. Probably more than half support the faster return of cold. It looks like a pattern not that different than the one we were in at the end of last week. Big rain, big gradient, then a follow up wave riding the front. There's one solution in the gfs ens that would bring a grown man to his knees. Keep up the good work with the analysis. Maybe tonights euro will bring the faster solution with some good times thrown in for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 This should probably get moved to banter it is so ludicrous, but I encountered this on facebook: "As it looks to me right now, someone may get 2 or 3 feet of snow out of this. I saw the new low starting to take birth over S.C. early today and I saw my bar. pressure drop like a rock and we have a reading of 29.52 over the Upstate of S.C. right now. I could just feel this thing was going to explode. I really believe we are going to see this happen all winter long. I am still forecasting the coldest winter in the Southeast US in 100 years. Yes, I know that sounds crazy but I believe with all my heart that this is going to be the BIG ONE! NOAA was thinking this was going to be a little worse than a heavy rain storm in most locations. Well, I have news, when 67% of the U.S. is covered with snow right now, you can forget what the computer models say about the short-term area for these type storms. I also think a wild storm is going to take birth around the 22nd to 24th of December that comes out of the Pacific into southern Cal. into Texas then down into Western Gulf across FL. and up the east coast which will put down heavy snow from Northern, GA into Upstate S.C. all the way up the coast. My official forecast is for a white Christmas from Athens GA. all the way up the coast. Start snowing around the 23rd in Northern GA and exit the Northeast Coast early Christmas Morning for the best east coast white Christmas ever! Get ready! This winter is going in the record books!" He continued: "Well Josh, I'm a big believer of cycles and we really have a lot of major news coming out daily about what is going on with the sun. This 11 year cycle is low, low and in the next 11 year cycle the activity is going down to nothing. We have strong reasons to believe volcano activity is going up big time over the next few years and on and on I can go. We are already in the early part of the next 'Little Ice Age'! The US is not ready for the cold we will be faced with in the short as well as long term. We are thinking our winters will get worse and worse every year for the next 40 to 50 years. I'm 53 years old, so if I live a normal life span I should be able to see a lot of this come to pass! Most of you guys will live to see most of it! Very exciting times to be alive! Of course this has nothing to do with the short-term snow storm we are all excited about tonight!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 LC is hinting at a big storm around 12/28 and then serious cold. He did not say it was a lock just hinted at the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 LC is hinting at a big storm around 12/28 and then serious cold. He did not say it was a lock just hinted at the idea.the 28th??? Lol that's 2 weeks away. Those models will look nothing like that by then. Models have enough problems handleing a storm 24 hrs away and people talk about wo weeks away? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Precursor of a tsunami coming in? Bob, your thoughts on this h5 look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 the 28th??? Lol that's 2 weeks away. Those models will look nothing like that by then. Models have enough problems handleing a storm 24 hrs away and people talk about wo weeks away? Lol Yea, let's keep gut shot straights and wishcasting out of this thread. Gfs sticks to a quicker fropa next week but drapes the boundary overhead and no stout hp this run. Still an interesting period. The 3 points of focus pre-xmas is timing of the front, alignmentof the boundary, and cold source. If it snows on the 28th then lc did a quick pic at the lottery counter and hit the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Precursor of a tsunami coming in? Bob, your thoughts on this h5 look Screen Shot 2013-12-14 at 11.42.36 PM.png Confluence to the north and no amplification means sheared out mess but more snow tv. No southern connection of consequence either. Wouldn't take much to be fun. Nice ridge out West. Gfs clearly missing the ss vort to phase. It's a lock. I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Let's not forget the Christmas eve miracle. Definitely some signals happening in the 22-24 timeframe. We've tended better and cooler for weeks. Why change this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro showing some ridging over the Pole for once: day 7 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The week of Christmas looks very interesting according to 0z GFS run. A lot of moving parts plus colder air at our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Probably worth watching the clipper'ish vort on wed. it keeps trending south and today is the closest run to affecting us. not saying it's a big deal or anything. just something that could bring back snow tv. if it trends a bit futher south, we are definitely in the game for something light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Yea, let's keep gut shot straights and wishcasting out of this thread. Gfs sticks to a quicker fropa next week but drapes the boundary overhead and no stout hp this run. Still an interesting period. The 3 points of focus pre-xmas is timing of the front, alignmentof the boundary, and cold source. If it snows on the 28th then lc did a quick pic at the lottery counter and hit the jackpot. Hey - shoot the mesenger!! Just sharing what he said! Was mentioning some teleconnections that hinted at both cold return and a strong Miller A - You can go read it yourself, but I was just sharing - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I'm ready for a pattern change. Pattern change looks like almost 60 by end of week and rain....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Pattern change looks like almost 60 by end of week and rain....lol. Awesome because I'm cold. A few days in the 60's will feel nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 As Bob says the GFS is much quicker with the front than the euro which actually has 3 really warm days culminating in a max of over 70 on SUnday. That looks like an outlier but the euro ensembles have trended warmer in the past couple of days. The euro esnembles suggest lots of uncertainty concerning the timing of the front. To a lesser extent so does the GEFS ensembles which has a couple of slow frontal passage members. If you're hoping for the clipper to yield, good luck. The low goes to our north so our north so surface temps are likely to be a problem. I haven't looked at the super ens mean as there seems to be enough differences in the euro and GEFS to make using them dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.