December and a Hint of January Pattern Discussion

[mattie g]

I had 3". DCA was under an inch.

Gotcha - I thought as much.

I didn't keep my snow obs at the time, so I don't have exact amounts, but I know it was 4" minimum. Enough for you to resent me, at least.

[Bob Chill]

Mets, I have a couple questions about where we may be potentially moving for the last week of the month. The epo ridge appears to remain favorable but not as robust However, it looks pretty good to me because of what appears to be west coast/goa ridging joining the party. 

 

Here's today's euro ens 5 day mean for Dec 23-28th:

 

 

 

I know this isn't a super cold pattern or anything but it favors below normal temps centered in ohv/ma/ne. Please correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't this imply split flow with energy into the sw and nothern stream vorts diving out of canada? I know timing and placement is absolutely nothing to speculate about. But this would be a pretty good potential pattern for us right?

 

We still don't have a block but heights around the arctic (if the euro verifies in some fashion) are the highest we've seen by far. The big +ao appears to want to take a break. Maybe go negative in Jan or reload +. Who knows. Am I wrong in kinda getting excited about the last week of the month?

 

It's not a classic pattern and I'm not trying to over hype anything. Just thinking that DC stands a better chance here with a non-messy event than what we have now. 

 

Any insight would be appreciated. 

[usedtobe]

Mets, I have a couple questions about where we may be potentially moving for the last week of the month. The epo ridge appears to remain favorable but not as robust However, it looks pretty good to me because of what appears to be west coast/goa ridging joining the party. 

 

Here's today's euro ens 5 day mean for Dec 23-28th:

 

euro5mean.JPG

 

 

I know this isn't a super cold pattern or anything but it favors below normal temps centered in ohv/ma/ne. Please correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't this imply split flow with energy into the sw and nothern stream vorts diving out of canada? I know timing and placement is absolutely nothing to speculate about. But this would be a pretty good potential pattern for us right?

 

We still don't have a block but heights around the arctic (if the euro verifies in some fashion) are the highest we've seen by far. The big +ao appears to want to take a break. Maybe go negative in Jan or reload +. Who knows. Am I wrong in kinda getting excited about the last week of the month?

 

It's not a classic pattern and I'm not trying to over hype anything. Just thinking that DC stands a better chance here with a non-messy event than what we have now. 

 

Any insight would be appreciated. 

Bob,

 

here's part of what originally was going to be an article but I dind't feel comfortable enough to use it on the CWG site. 

 

The mean today identified 9 different years. Of those 9 years, four had snow at DCA within 3 days of the centered mean (which would be equivalent to December 24):  1967 (4.2”) 1962 (1.7”), 1990 (3”), 1962 (two 5”storms).         

Despite the paucity of snowstorms forecast on last nights GEFS ensembles, the super ensemble mean pattern from the last two days suggests this is not a bad pattern for getting a modest overrunning snow event providing of course the model forecast of the pattern is a decent one (at such long time ranges that’s always in question).  The large scale pattern is not a great one as we still don’t have blocking

[Bob Chill]

Thanks Wes. It's nice to know I can analyze this stuff sometimes with very modest confidence and not just guessing.

 

I agree about what you we're going to say in your article. Assuming a 10-15 lead model prog is going to verify even close to the depiction gets people in trouble quite often.

 

There is gaining confidence with the ridging in the west. that's an important step for us here. Without any signs of real blocking, one of the few ways to get a shortwave to pass underneath us is with that ridge. And if 2 vorts phase in the south just east of the mississippi river...well...then....you know... lol

[Amped]

EUro low south of Greenland day 9 is very impressive,  944mb with a 468dm H5 vort.

[aldie 22]

I'm beginning to doubt these forecasts for 60s

[Heisy]

GFS has a 1040mb high over Lakes with shortwave in Texas Day 8-9, it may cut, but it looks like there is a threat right before Christmas for a low to develop on a stalled front. 

[Jebman]

Mets or people living in or near Frederick MD: What is your average seasonal snow total so far, not counting tomorrow's 8 inches, and how much have you received so far? Your input is much appreciated.

[Bob Chill]

euro came to it's senses for next weekends event. this looks much more real for some reason

 

 

 

[clueless]

euro came to it's senses for next weekends event. this looks much more real for some reason

 

 

eurosnow22.png

It looks sad. I like the last one better.

[mitchnick]

euro came to it's senses for next weekends event. this looks much more real for some reason

 

 

eurosnow22.png

I missed the last map....what did it show?

[Bob Chill]

I missed the last map....what did it show?

[DDweatherman]

The snow maps don't really make sense in the first place considering 850's are torching. Not really sure how any snow is shown, the ice potential is higher than anything else in this time frame. 

[usedtobe]

The euro ensembles also aren't looking good going forward as they have a hard time getting the 850 temps to freezing on the days clustered around xmas.  Certainly not as nice looking at the superens mean from the last two days looked.  Not sure what to make of them but am glad I pulled my CWG article on the extended. 

[Bob Chill]

The euro ensembles also aren't looking good going forward as they have a hard time getting the 850 temps to freezing on the days clustered around xmas.  Certainly not as nice looking at the superens mean from the last two days looked.  Not sure what to make of them but am glad I pulled my CWG article on the extended. 

 

I saw that wes. Looks like those uber low heights near greenland beat up the se ridge and flatten the flow quite a bit. 

 

I'll take the half full approach and say confluence to the n gives us overunning chances into marginal airmasses but nothing amplifies and roasts us...

[Ian]

euro came to it's senses for next weekends event. this looks much more real for some reason

 

 

eurosnow22.png

WHY ARE YOU SUCH A TROLL??

[Bob Chill]

WHY ARE YOU SUCH A TROLL??

 

 

ummm...I learned it from you?

 

 

Much more to come after this panel on the gfs @ 192

 

[usedtobe]

ummm...I learned it from you?

 

 

Much more to come after this panel on the gfs @ 192

 

gfssnow192.png

But the ptype is sleet and freezing rain.   Still if it were right then my almost post/article  would have been a good one. 

[Bob Chill]

But the ptype is sleet and freezing rain.   Still if it were right then my almost post/article  would have been a good one. 

 

I know you know I'm mostly trolling but this is the second very similar look in as many days. Front clears, big bad hp in se canada, and robust wave and slp rides up.

 

@ 192 850's are good bit south down by EZF and plenty of cad. Verbatim it's a snow/sleet/zr setup. But we kinda expect that right? 

[DDweatherman]

I know you know I'm mostly trolling but this is the second very similar look in as many days. Front clears, big bad hp in se canada, and robust wave and slp rides up.

 

@ 192 850's are good bit south down by EZF and plenty of cad. Verbatim it's a snow/sleet/zr setup. But we kinda expect that right? 

That storm actually has some potential with it. The HP is located in a decent spot, and the front clearing through some cold helps us out for sure. Think something good could come out of it. Something to watch, could be our next threat. 

[Wonderdog]

This has been a good 10 day period for tracking storms and seeing snow. Nice to see another threat inside of 10 days.

[Bob Chill]

That storm actually has some potential with it. The HP is located in a decent spot, and the front clearing through some cold helps us out for sure. Think something good could come out of it. Something to watch, could be our next threat. 

 

It's what we've been hoping for but it's a bit earlier than expected. A bit of a flag there. But it's at least plausible.Should be fun to watch if it holds in some form or another. 

 

It's clearly the most important storm in the history of the planet of the united states of the world. 

[aldie 22]

It's what we've been hoping for but it's a bit earlier than expected. A bit of a flag there. But it's at least plausible.Should be fun to watch if it holds in some form or another. 

 

It's clearly the most important storm in the history of the planet of the united states of the world.

Gfs has signaled a big qpf event in that timeframe for many runs now...fun. The last few seem to have backed off on the "torch" dt is saying 70....

[Bob Chill]

Gfs has signaled a big qpf event in that timeframe for many runs now...fun. The last few seem to have backed off on the "torch" dt is saying 70....

 

Yea, it sure has. And the euro op picked up as soon as it was within range. We might get low 60's for a day. Maybe 2. one thing good about lack of blocking is things zip along. I won't get mad if the front speeds up. It would be a white christmas for some if not all if we pull this thing off. 

[aldie 22]

Yea, it sure has. And the euro op picked up as soon as it was within range. We might get low 60's for a day. Maybe 2. one thing good about lack of blocking is things zip along. I won't get mad if the front speeds up. It would be a white christmas for some if not all if we pull this thing off.

What's showing 60s anymore though Bob...admittedly I'm not looking that hard but 50 or so is what it looks like

[Bob Chill]

What's showing 60s anymore though Bob...admittedly I'm not looking that hard but 50 or so is what it looks like

 

Just going off a blend last couple days. fri-sat. it's backed down to 50's but 60's close by enough. we do well beating progs in the temp dept

[stormtracker]

But the ptype is sleet and freezing rain.   Still if it were right then my almost post/article  would have been a good one. 

 

You sure Wes? Looks like snow/sleet initially?

[stormtracker]

Yea, it sure has. And the euro op picked up as soon as it was within range. We might get low 60's for a day. Maybe 2. one thing good about lack of blocking is things zip along. I won't get mad if the front speeds up. It would be a white christmas for some if not all if we pull this thing off. 

 

It's 180+ hours away, but that's probably our next trackable threat.     Looks like a repeat of last Sunday.   I'd take it in December.

[aldie 22]

Just going off a blend last couple days. fri-sat. it's backed down to 50's but 60's close by enough. we do well beating progs in the temp dept

A week out and it's already going backwards? Hmmmm...I'm going max temp is 52

[Bob Chill]

Probably worth watching the clipper'ish vort on wed. it keeps trending south and today is the closest run to affecting us. not saying it's a big deal or anything. just something that could bring back snow tv. if it trends a bit futher south, we are definitely in the game for something light.

 

LR gfs is money. Lala and all that but still.