HM Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Bob, technically, the AO will go negative for a while day 6-10 as a transpolar ridge forms from EPO domain to eastern Europe. I know you were more concerned with the NAO-side, but this is part of why this next cold shot could be worse than the first (plus time of year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 HM check out the massive cutter at Day 9-10 on EURO, could usher in a new pattern it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 HM check out the massive cutter at Day 9-10 on EURO, could usher in a new pattern it looks like. Nah... It's the same old pattern but now it's later in December and the air is even colder. Massive -EPO / temporary -AO goes up and displaces another round of cold. The baroclinic zone will shift east again approaching xmas and bring more wintry wx to us. The cutter isn't causing the pattern and it won't flip the NAO if that's what you mean. But yes, it will mark the change back to cold after a temporary warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Great stuff HM. I'm personally thrilled with Dec. Everything is moving and nothing is "boring and lame". I have zero issues with a relaxation and return to a similar but potentially colder shot coming during Chistmas week. I don't think it will be cold/dry/suppressed. SS seems to like being there and if the pattern repeats then that part of the pattern favors a repeat of an active storm track. We'll be messy but who cares. Can't change it and this Dec has already been like a million times better than last. Maybe dca wins with the next blast. We missed a solid 2/4 - 3/5 by just a couple of degrees yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nah... It's the same old pattern but now it's later in December and the air is even colder. Massive -EPO / temporary -AO goes up and displaces another round of cold. The baroclinic zone will shift east again approaching xmas and bring more wintry wx to us. The cutter isn't causing the pattern and it won't flip the NAO if that's what you mean. But yes, it will mark the change back to cold after a temporary warm-up. I don't see a negative AO with such a strong polar vortex but think the cold will be impressive as the neg EPO is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I don't see a negative AO with such a strong polar vortex but think the cold will be impressive as the neg EPO is impressive. The EPO is part of the AO domain and because it is so strong and connnects across the pole to E. Europe, it will temporarily put the AO on a decline during that time. But yes, we all agree the PV is super strong and NAO is super positive, as you saw in our conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Great stuff HM. I'm personally thrilled with Dec. Everything is moving and nothing is "boring and lame". I have zero issues with a relaxation and return to a similar but potentially colder shot coming during Chistmas week. I don't think it will be cold/dry/suppressed. SS seems to like being there and if the pattern repeats then that part of the pattern favors a repeat of an active storm track. We'll be messy but who cares. Can't change it and this Dec has already been like a million times better than last. Maybe dca wins with the next blast. We missed a solid 2/4 - 3/5 by just a couple of degrees yesterday. Yes, there is definitely more opportunity with this pattern and it is very active. This is about as active as you are going to get outside of a KU pattern. The next STJ surge (it never goes away just oscillates in intensity) will come in about 10 or so days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nevermind, found answer to my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Speaking of a deep arctic airmass into TX - south central Texas has seen a number of mid 20s lows and even a day or two of HIGHS in the upper 20s. They even managed to bottom out at 22 one morning. This time of year, they are usually looking for a high of 64 with a low of 42. Just yesterday they were 42 then dropped to 25 with dewpoints near 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Nah... It's the same old pattern but now it's later in December and the air is even colder. Massive -EPO / temporary -AO goes up and displaces another round of cold. The baroclinic zone will shift east again approaching xmas and bring more wintry wx to us. The cutter isn't causing the pattern and it won't flip the NAO if that's what you mean. But yes, it will mark the change back to cold after a temporary warm-up. HM, thank you for your contributions to this forum. I am really enjoying reading your offerings here. Does the PV drive the bus (sort of speak) when it comes to our atmosphere in the winter? I am sure it's not that simple, but I see you mentioning an individual storm (i.e. strong lakes cutter) won't have an effect on changing the Atlantic, so that got me to thinking what cause and effects actually control changes such as these. TIA for any response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro ensembles show the warmth to be transient (2-3 days tops) but noticeable. I personally think a 60+ day is in the cards. Maybe 2. We'll have to see how the front progresses. The gradient sets up close again on the run. Front looks to be through by Christmas eve/day verbatim. Safe to it will be a rainy passage when it does happen. But it definitely looks like we are back in a gradient pattern. 12z GEFS shows potential for an active period during the last week of the month. Precip max runs from tx-tn vally-ma. Far out in lala disclaimer and all...I really like what I see even if the events are flawed. Accum snow (and rn, zr, ip) definitely a real possibility after we break out the shorts for a day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Speaking of a deep arctic airmass into TX - south central Texas has seen a number of mid 20s lows and even a day or two of HIGHS in the upper 20s. They even managed to bottom out at 22 one morning. This time of year, they are usually looking for a high of 64 with a low of 42. Just yesterday they were 42 then dropped to 25 with dewpoints near 20. We've (Austin, TX) just walked out of the coldest early December "Arctic Outbreak" in history, beating the events in 1964 and 1950. Looks like we'll be seeing something similar (or worse) close to Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Could someone tell me some good news about our chances of picking up some snow this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Could someone tell me some good news about our chances of picking up some snow this winter? start here http://www.livescience.com/3945-history-dinosaurs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro ensembles show the warmth to be transient (2-3 days tops) but noticeable. I personally think a 60+ day is in the cards. Maybe 2. We'll have to see how the front progresses. The gradient sets up close again on the run. Front looks to be through by Christmas eve/day verbatim. Safe to it will be a rainy passage when it does happen. But it definitely looks like we are back in a gradient pattern. 12z GEFS shows potential for an active period during the last week of the month. Precip max runs from tx-tn vally-ma. Far out in lala disclaimer and all...I really like what I see even if the events are flawed. Accum snow (and rn, zr, ip) definitely a real possibility after we break out the shorts for a day or 2. The 18z gfs and its ens members sure would support only a very brief warmup and then back to the freezer and chances for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 start here http://www.livescience.com/3945-history-dinosaurs.html This too: https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralmaryland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Could someone tell me some good news about our chances of picking up some snow this winter? If you read the last say 30 posts... you'll get your answers. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 CFS went from historic jan heat to cold Jan in about 5 days http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20131211.201401.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 CFS for January today CFS for January a few days ago(dec 9) Pretty useful tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GEFS certainly support the longterm BN pattern outside of the brief torch late next week ahead of the cutter. -EPO is rocking through 384hrs and has a nice position for us which is closer to the West Coast, so it's probably also a +PNA pattern. AO and NAO still look positive. Cold air around and active southern stream and I think we'll continue to have chances. Not a great pattern for a big widespread storm, but small storms and messy storms for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 GEFS certainly support the longterm BN pattern outside of the brief torch late next week ahead of the cutter. -EPO is rocking through 384hrs and has a nice position for us which is closer to the West Coast, so it's probably also a +PNA pattern. AO and NAO still look positive. Cold air around and active southern stream and I think we'll continue to have chances. Not a great pattern for a big widespread storm, but small storms and messy storms for sure. Yes, it's sticking to it as well. Torch is even getting muted but I don't really care. I would like a 60 degree day and you rarely hear me say that (because in past years they come in 3 week strings and not 2-3 days bookended by cold) GEFS ind member definitely show a signal for 2+ precip events post front passage. White Christmas? I would say our chance this year is much better than usual but not a "good" chance....yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GEFS certainly support the longterm BN pattern outside of the brief torch late next week ahead of the cutter. -EPO is rocking through 384hrs and has a nice position for us which is closer to the West Coast, so it's probably also a +PNA pattern. AO and NAO still look positive. Cold air around and active southern stream and I think we'll continue to have chances. Not a great pattern for a big widespread storm, but small storms and messy storms for sure. Looks to me like the -epo could link up with a positive PNA after xmas for a bit. That's a better set up for getting a vort to dig to our south. That would be a better snow set than we currently have except for our western guys who don't warm as easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GEFS certainly support the longterm BN pattern outside of the brief torch late next week ahead of the cutter. -EPO is rocking through 384hrs and has a nice position for us which is closer to the West Coast, so it's probably also a +PNA pattern. AO and NAO still look positive. Cold air around and active southern stream and I think we'll continue to have chances. Not a great pattern for a big widespread storm, but small storms and messy storms for sure. How do you think this pattern compares to 93-94? I was very little so I can't speak from personal experience, but I do know that 93-94 had a very +NAO, but was also very cold with lots of messy icy storms which were mostly snow north of the M/D line and whoever was on the right side of the gradient had a fantastic winter. Also from what I've heard, a lot of those storms were expected to be rain until they trended colder and colder and ended up being snow and ice. Everything that's happened this past week reminds me of what I've heard about that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 How do you think this pattern compares to 93-94? I was very little so can't speak from personal experience, but I do know that 93-94 had a very +NAO, but was also very cold with lots of messy icy storms which were mostly snow north of the M/D line and whoever was on the right side of the gradient had a fantastic winter. Also from what I've heard, a lot of those storms were expected to be rain until they trended colder and colder and ended up being snow and ice. Everything that's happened this past week reminds me of what I've heard about that winter. The AO was negative during that spell. The pattern late in the month will be getting closer to a 1994 type pattern if the GEFS ens mean is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The AO was negative during that spell. The pattern late in the month will be getting closer to a 1994 type pattern if the GEFS ens mean is correct. I just pulled the second half of dec 93 (pic is mislabeled) off of esrl and a gefs panel down the rd. Definitely similar with the -epo linking up with the +pna. This is such a fun month even if snow in my yard has largely missed those nearby. I can't complain at all honestly. Let's have a memorable christmas week. It's been a while. Boxing day storm is memorable for different reasons... Here's the height anoms for DJF 93-94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I just pulled the second half of dec 93 (pic is mislabeled) off of esrl and a gefs panel down the rd. Definitely similar with the -epo linking up with the +pna. This is such a fun month even if snow in my yard has largely missed those nearby. I can't complain at all honestly. Let's have a memorable christmas week. It's been a while. Boxing day storm is memorable for different reasons... Even though our locations weren't near the heaviest totals, I'm pretty sure my 3.5" total so far is already at or slightly above the December average for Rockville (that's IAD's December average). IAD has gone over, and in my opinion, any above average snow month is a good month even if others are doing much better relative to average. DCA needs 0.9" the rest of the month to come in above average, and BWI just needs 0.2" more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS op showing a second wave on the boundary after the front clears. Ens semi-agree. SS alive and well. 22nd-24th definitely a period of interest if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GFS op showing a second wave on the boundary after the front clears. Ens semi-agree. SS alive and well. 22nd-24th definitely a period of interest if nothing else. Yeah, there's a definite signal there. Wonder if the Euro will have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah, there's a definite signal there. Wonder if the Euro will have it the euro goes out to 296? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 the euro goes out to 296? Doesn't the EURO Control? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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