stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS....hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS....hmmmmm I think we should call it the "Chill" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS....hmmmmm pretty similar to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think we should call it the "Chill" storm Worked last year. I don't know what it would take to keep the low in Alabama from heading straight north, maybe a big fat high sitting in the lakes?, but if it could keep heading east for a while.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS wants to play the CAD game at 105. It does not nearly look as strong as the storm last weekend so I would imagine that I will not get invested in this. Looks plenty strong to me.. 1036 high in southern Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 cold keeps finding a way this year, so don't bet against it until it stops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Got fringed too many times this year to get invested in a marginal event, but yes it's worth monitoring if that HP drives a better wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 There is still a lot of ridging across the Atlantic. That 588DM moves around but doesn't want to go away. Canada looks pretty darn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I guess I won't say how good the euro looks for some this run. Go take a look, why not. Pavements gonna say eff it in leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Any more Euro details for those of us who don't have access? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ...The Euro might reel some folks in for the weekend. CAD holds strong (basically to DCA) until 108. Precip really building in at that point. 850s marginal, but could be some front end snow and IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I guess I won't say how good the euro looks for some this run. Go take a look, why not. Pavements gonna say eff it in leesburg. I'm too lazy.....what's the Euro have to say about the weekend? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Any more Euro details for those of us who don't have access? 1-2" for St. Croix It is like a 3-5"+ event for the western burbs...before it changes over...there may be more mixing than it looks like as the track isn't ideal for DC and immediate burbs...better for HGR - FDK - MRB etc...perhaps 2-4" with mixing and changeover in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Don't look at the Wxbell snowmaps...it's a trap!! Anyway Euro looks basically like a carbon copy of Sundays storm. CAD might be a little weaker. Front end dump followed by lots of IP and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I guess I won't say how good the euro looks for some this run. Go take a look, why not. Pavements gonna say eff it in leesburg.Do tell please I am away and cannot see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 1-2" for St. Croix It is like a 3-5"+ event for the western burbs...before it changes over...there may be more mixing than it looks like as the track isn't ideal for DC and immediate burbs...better for HGR - FDK - MRB etc...perhaps 2-4" with mixing and changeover in DC Wow, I figured this was more hyperbole than real but that doesn't sound terrible given how far out this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 1-2" for St. Croix It is like a 3-5"+ event for the western burbs...before it changes over...there may be more mixing than it looks like as the track isn't ideal for DC and immediate burbs...better for HGR - FDK - MRB etc...perhaps 2-4" with mixing and changeover in DC Wow that is sweet, is this a Saturday storm?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Wow, I figured this was more hyperbole than real but that doesn't sound terrible given how far out this is. and it keeps getting better with each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Wow that is sweet, is this a Saturday storm?. Comes in late afternoon Saturday. Over by early Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 and it keeps getting better with each run I have been quietly watching that one. It has indeed been improving. On this storm, the euro is actually the one leading the way however the GFS has been getting progressively closer. It is a very similar event to the Sunday storm as mentioned, and the precip on the front end gets a lot juicier with each run. Cold airmass will be in place from the cold the next few days which shouldn't be too stale. Euro is a nice solution for west of the bay, and really solid N/w. Best part, 96 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 and it keeps getting better with each run This is the thing. Models keep getting colder/better with each run. If this is a true CAD situation, then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Comes in late afternoon Saturday. Over by early Sunday morning. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 and it keeps getting better with each run Yes it does. The CAD could get better with this one and may match last Sunday. Looks like the Euro has a 1039 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 1-2" for St. Croix It is like a 3-5"+ event for the western burbs...before it changes over...there may be more mixing than it looks like as the track isn't ideal for DC and immediate burbs...better for HGR - FDK - MRB etc...perhaps 2-4" with mixing and changeover in DC I think it pretty similar to the last event that had the low go towards the oh valley/lakes with a nice high and CAD signature. For us and the eastern contingent almost always a disappointment and 2-4 would be a pretty liberal forecast except up towards Mapgirl and Phin unless somehow a meso band formed early. Looks like a decent event for the Leesburg west crowd. I'm not sure this cold air mass will be quite as cold starting out but dammng events often trend colder. Certainly an interesting event. I'll have to wrap it into the two week discussion tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think it pretty similar to the last event that had the low go towards the oh valley/lakes with a nice high and CAD signature. For us and the eastern contingent almost always a disappointment and 2-4 would be a pretty liberal forecast except up towards Mapgirl and Phin unless somehow a meso band formed early. Looks like a decent event for the Leesburg west crowd. I'm not sure this cold air mass will be quite as cold starting out but dammng events often trend colder. Certainly an interesting event. I'll have to wrap it into the two week discussion tomorrow. I will be visiting good friends in Rehoboth beach, but wil still root for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Great news! We have had more snow this December in the Parr's Ridge/Hereford zone area than most of the last two winters. This has been a memorable December in terms of tracking storms and cold for the entire area, and a few northern hicks were actually able to cash in. I hope we can keep putting down snow cover in as wide a swath as possible. Bring on the frozen because whatever falls has a good shot of lasting for awhile. No 50s and rain like in previous seasons, this pattern is actually interesting for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm in. Let's penny our way to an above avg Dec. (I know many are already there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I have been quietly watching that one. It has indeed been improving. On this storm, the euro is actually the one leading the way however the GFS has been getting progressively closer. It is a very similar event to the Sunday storm as mentioned, and the precip on the front end gets a lot juicier with each run. Cold airmass will be in place from the cold the next few days which shouldn't be too stale. Euro is a nice solution for west of the bay, and really solid N/w. Best part, 96 hours out. After the past two events, I'm wondering how one would go about delivering a forecast anymore. I mean, what would have been a better forecast for Sunday? 1-8" depending on if you end up under a band but we don't know where that will set up? Today? .5-2" inside the beltway and east with 1.5-3" in the next county and 2.5-5" in the tier over? Are snowfall maps going to start needing discrete blobs inside the beltway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I will be visiting good friends in Rehoboth beach, but wil still root for it get a rain check from them and make it 7/14 instead of 12/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 There are definite similarities to the past sunday event, but this coming weekend event is much more robust as modelled. There is plenty more moisture for the Northeast as a result but the cold air is scoured out of the mid-atlantic easier it would seem. The trends on the runs today were indeed interesting though, and the antecedent airmass/high over eastern Canada is rooted over an extremely cold air mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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