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December and a Hint of January Pattern Discussion


Bob Chill

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Any more Euro details for those of us who don't have access?

 

1-2" for St. Croix ;)

 

 

It is like a 3-5"+ event  for the western burbs...before it changes over...there may be more mixing than it looks like as the track isn't ideal for DC and immediate burbs...better for HGR - FDK - MRB etc...perhaps 2-4" with mixing and changeover in DC

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1-2" for St. Croix ;)

 

 

It is like a 3-5"+ event  for the western burbs...before it changes over...there may be more mixing than it looks like as the track isn't ideal for DC and immediate burbs...better for HGR - FDK - MRB etc...perhaps 2-4" with mixing and changeover in DC

Wow, I figured this was more hyperbole than real but that doesn't sound terrible given how far out this is.

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1-2" for St. Croix ;)

 

 

It is like a 3-5"+ event  for the western burbs...before it changes over...there may be more mixing than it looks like as the track isn't ideal for DC and immediate burbs...better for HGR - FDK - MRB etc...perhaps 2-4" with mixing and changeover in DC

Wow that is sweet, is this a Saturday storm?.
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and it keeps getting better with each run

I have been quietly watching that one. It has indeed been improving. On this storm, the euro is actually the one leading the way however the GFS has been getting progressively closer. It is a very similar event to the Sunday storm as mentioned, and the precip on the front end gets a lot juicier with each run. Cold airmass will be in place from the cold the next few days which shouldn't be too stale. 

 

Euro is a nice solution for west of the bay, and really solid N/w. Best part, 96 hours out. 

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1-2" for St. Croix ;)

 

 

It is like a 3-5"+ event  for the western burbs...before it changes over...there may be more mixing than it looks like as the track isn't ideal for DC and immediate burbs...better for HGR - FDK - MRB etc...perhaps 2-4" with mixing and changeover in DC

I think it pretty similar to the last event that had the low go towards the oh valley/lakes with a nice high and CAD signature.  For us  and the eastern contingent almost always a disappointment and 2-4  would be a pretty liberal forecast except up towards Mapgirl and Phin unless somehow a meso band formed early.  Looks like a decent event for the Leesburg west crowd.  I'm not sure this cold air mass will be quite as cold starting out but dammng events often trend colder.    Certainly an interesting event.    I'll have to wrap it into the two week discussion tomorrow. 

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I think it pretty similar to the last event that had the low go towards the oh valley/lakes with a nice high and CAD signature.  For us  and the eastern contingent almost always a disappointment and 2-4  would be a pretty liberal forecast except up towards Mapgirl and Phin unless somehow a meso band formed early.  Looks like a decent event for the Leesburg west crowd.  I'm not sure this cold air mass will be quite as cold starting out but dammng events often trend colder.    Certainly an interesting event.    I'll have to wrap it into the two week discussion tomorrow. 

 

I will be visiting good friends in Rehoboth beach, but wil still root for it ;)

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Great news!  We have had more snow this December in the Parr's Ridge/Hereford zone area than most of the last two winters.  This has been a memorable December in terms of tracking storms and cold for the entire area, and a few northern hicks were actually able to cash in.  I hope we can keep putting down snow cover in as wide a swath as possible.  Bring on the frozen because whatever falls has a good shot of lasting for awhile.  No 50s and rain like in previous seasons, this pattern is actually interesting for a change. 

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I have been quietly watching that one. It has indeed been improving. On this storm, the euro is actually the one leading the way however the GFS has been getting progressively closer. It is a very similar event to the Sunday storm as mentioned, and the precip on the front end gets a lot juicier with each run. Cold airmass will be in place from the cold the next few days which shouldn't be too stale.

Euro is a nice solution for west of the bay, and really solid N/w. Best part, 96 hours out.

After the past two events, I'm wondering how one would go about delivering a forecast anymore. I mean, what would have been a better forecast for Sunday? 1-8" depending on if you end up under a band but we don't know where that will set up?

Today? .5-2" inside the beltway and east with 1.5-3" in the next county and 2.5-5" in the tier over? Are snowfall maps going to start needing discrete blobs inside the beltway?

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There are definite similarities to the past sunday event, but this coming weekend event is much more robust as modelled. There is plenty more moisture for the Northeast as a result but the cold air is scoured out of the mid-atlantic easier it would seem. The trends on the runs today were indeed interesting though, and the antecedent airmass/high over eastern Canada is rooted over an extremely cold air mass

 

post-402-0-64314900-1386702567_thumb.png

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