snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Weekend storm still wet verbatim. 12z gfs shows a 50/50 in place and plenty of cold in front but the ss vort phases with some ns energy and it cuts. The cold hp slides off the coast and there's nothing in SE canada to help. It's a viable solution but the threat isn't dead. Less phasing would certainly help. I personally don't see how it gets better than messy at our latitude. Could end up being miller b'ish for SNE. Maybe someone else sees more promise. I don't. Sat could end up being a dicey front end forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Sat could end up being a dicey front end forecast... yes, it could. Pretty much a classic cad sig on the euro and plenty of waa running into it. Not a cold and deep with the hp at this range but strength and placement of anything at this range will change many times. At the very least, a 1030+hp in a good spot and precip overunning CAD verbatim. Too bad everything keeps pointing to a west or runner with the surface low. Could end up being a miller b..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 yes, it could. Pretty much a classic cad sig on the euro and plenty of waa running into it. Not a cold and deep with the hp at this range but strength and placement of anything at this range will change many times. At the very least, a 1030+hp in a good spot and precip overunning CAD verbatim. Too bad everything keeps pointing to a west or runner with the surface low. Could end up being a miller b..... If it is a classic CAD signal you can double down on the odds it will be colder than modeled. Also, at range, yesterday was also supposed to be a low west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 yea I am not feeling this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 yea I am not feeling this one I'm not sure why you ever bought into it in the first place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 There is too many variables that would have to change or be perfectly changed to make it work.. Small mix with a turn to rain. WILL WE EVER GET A NEGATIVE NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'm not sure why you ever bought into it in the first place I bought an event never a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z brings back the interest. Still an oh valley primary with mix on the front but a wall of hp is showing up across southern canada. No good track has been shown yet but a trend towards more chance for a mix before rain or even a miller B (not good for us I don't think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z brings back the interest. Still an oh valley primary with mix on the front but a wall of hp is showing up across southern canada. No good track has been shown yet but a trend towards more chance for a mix before rain or even a miller B (not good for us I don't think). it shows everything but snow...so Im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 18z brings back the interest. Still an oh valley primary with mix on the front but a wall of hp is showing up across southern canada. No good track has been shown yet but a trend towards more chance for a mix before rain or even a miller B (not good for us I don't think). It depends. An eastern OV low that jumps early is exactly what last Christmas was. Jan of 2009 is another example of a good one. This is definitely worth watching. Heck it may even trend away from a strong low west of the Apps like yesterday did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 it shows everything but snow...so Im out It shows a double barrel all the way. OH primary never completes the transfer. I'm gonna go on a limb and say this solution is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 It shows a double barrel all the way. OH primary never completes the transfer. I'm gonna go on a limb and say this solution is wrong. That's a pretty sturdy limb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Ensembles show a wide range of possibilities for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Ensembles show a wide range of possibilities for the weekend. Yeah, I've got one eyebrow raised to this one after seeing the 18z GFS. There's a 1035 high moving into position. That double barreled low looked suspect, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yeah, I've got one eyebrow raised to this one after seeing the 18z GFS. There's a 1035 high moving into position. That double barreled low looked suspect, lol Looks even more suspect on this run. It's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 It's not close on the op. Primary into central oh and a jump to Atlantic city. 850's are a mess well before good precip gets here. Only 2 ways this gives us any snow is a cut to Chicago with a mixy mess or a jump from ky to the va capes. I haven't seen anything that gives either much hope. Keeping the whole complex below us and off the coast needs a block that nothing shows that. A weak solution might work if it tracks up the apps and never transfers but that is still snow to rain. Things can change for sure but no promising signs are apparent yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks even more suspect on this run. It's close. It's three streams coming close together, the remants of a cutoff, the pac wave around and the polar wave. This thing would be an absolute bomb somewhere if it came together right. Oh one can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 hr150 looking chilly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Interesting that Sterling has been calling for a chance of snow showers (40%) in the metro area on Saturday night behind that system. Not sure I see where that comes from, looks like we get rained on, followed by drying out quickly and getting colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 almost looks like the GFS has a tropical system at 240 hrs meandering around south of Cuba, barely on the ncep map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I took some time and looked at the last couple gfs ops and gfs/euro ensembles. Beyond the weekend keeps improving. SS remains active and tapped. Heights along the wc and goa definitely seems to be biased towards ridging. One thing that has faded is the big mid month relaxation. It looks like a lot of cool/cold shots with moderation in between. Active storm track with plenty of opportunity. Not a classic cold snowy pattern but one that will keep us entertained. This month for many unexpected reasons appears to want to be fun. White Christmas? Heh, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I took some time and looked at the last couple gfs ops and gfs/euro ensembles. Beyond the weekend keeps improving. SS remains active and tapped. Heights along the wc and goa definitely seems to be biased towards ridging. One thing that has faded is the big mid month relaxation. It looks like a lot of cool/cold shots with moderation in between. Active storm track with plenty of opportunity. Not a classic cold snowy pattern but one that will keep us entertained. This month for many unexpected reasons appears to want to be fun. White Christmas? Heh, maybe? Mid month is in 5'days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks like EURO showed nice CAD @ 120, did it show a thump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 6z gfs is a little more interesting...still rain, but different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 6z gfs is a little more interesting...still rain, but different It keeps getting closer. Be crazy to give up on this. I don't care what the Euro says (it did really well with today, huh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It keeps getting closer. Be crazy to give up on this. I don't care what the Euro says (it did really well with today, huh) I don't even know what the Euro showed tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It keeps getting closer. Be crazy to give up on this. I don't care what the Euro says (it did really well with today, huh) You have a lot more room to work with than us folks farther east. Not complaining - just sayin'. Things have trended in our favor the last week or so, but I'm not going to hang my hat on that happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS wants to play the CAD game at 105. It does not nearly look as strong as the storm last weekend so I would imagine that I will not get invested in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 besides temps, this was also a rates bust for most..I got 1/2 mi viz for maybe 30 minutes...otherwise all -SN, even when all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GFS trying to get some invested this run, slowly is trending colder. Would really be tough to get some good front end precip however in wintry form. Not a big CAD setup like this past weekend. GFS does want to do a miller B set-up, just develops the secondary a bit far north. 32 degree line stays close to the cities and is an icing event for those far n/w again. Some front end snow could could could happen for some places if it juices up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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