Heisy Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 What a great day, surprise this AM, NAM/GFS showing a moderate snowstorm Tuesday, EURO showing 2 potential threats in the LR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Does the GFS seriously show IAD to be 10 degrees at 7PM Wednesday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Does the GFS seriously show IAD to be 10 degrees at 7PM Wednesday night? Yeah, I had to look a few times to make sure I was reading it correctly. 0z Thursday temps per 18z are about 10 degrees in eastern Loudoun and mid/upper teens towards Arl/Alex/DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 That day 8 storm looks suspicious on the GFS. High is in a decent position.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Donnie Sutherland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Ji, that ridge in the west has been showing off and on with the gefs. Today's gefs not as good. I'm almost starting to expect a favorable but different pattern for the east. To close the month. Unless things completely unwind the next 2 weeks, we're finishing aob for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Ji, that ridge in the west has been showing off and on with the gefs. Today's gefs not as good. I'm almost starting to expect a favorable but different pattern for the east. To close the month. Unless things completely unwind the next 2 weeks, we're finishing aob for the month. I'll take the pattern we have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ji, that ridge in the west has been showing off and on with the gefs. Today's gefs not as good. I'm almost starting to expect a favorable but different pattern for the east. To close the month. Unless things completely unwind the next 2 weeks, we're finishing aob for the month. I think by next weekend we are in a pretty bad pattern for a storm....southern stream dies down....gradient pattern with se ridge, super +west based nao, with pos height anomalies over us and a -PNA....now that isn't to say it will be warm...THis was supposed to be my torchy period, but there is so much fricking cold air in the CONUS we will have trouble getting too warm...but it won't be good for a storm.....I think HM may be early with his 1st storm window,..but from 12/22 - 1/10...I think we will have multiple chances especially during the heart of that window.....we are already seeing the idea of transient -NAO's and PNA spikes showing up toward that range....with so much cold air we will have a better chance of timing something and perhaps we can actually get a block.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I'll take the pattern we have right now. In a sense events like today aren't particularly uncommon...we've saw them quite a bit during otherwise pedestrian winters for the coastal plain but that had some semblance of a southern stream and less so but still happened in northern stream winters...events where immediate DC metro gets a statistically insignificant event and someone gets 6"+....usually that someone being NW VA through WV panhandle through FDK and HGR.....this was a more extreme example of those type of events as this was much more widespread, in early December, and a prolonged event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 I agree with your thoughts matt. We are going to probably hit a boring pattern for a time inside of the next 2 weeks. Just not a boring pattern full of +5-10 dep for a big string. After that we may back in a favorable pattern but wirh a different look. This month has done nothing but surprise so far. Maybe it goes practically belly to belly. I don't look past 2 weeks for the most part. So far so good. We could get a bias for more western ridging if the higher heights progged in the goa connect a bit. Just a wag. The Atlantic is a total wildcard. Moving into better climo tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I see the CFS2 has finally honed its DEC forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 owww, DEC precip forecast looks spicy for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 DT already honking about next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS has another major arctic blast next weekend centered over the east. We'll see if this continues to be modeled. I guess what happens with the storm before will determine the extent of the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Man. I hope our winter is not focused on December this year. Once the pattern breaks it could be bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Man. I hope our winter is not focused on December this year. Once the pattern breaks it could be bad news. Unless you know anything about mid to long range forecasts and outlooks, you should probably refrain from comments like this. I don't know much about the topic, but I value quality discussion, so therefore, I read much more than I post on this subject. Unless you have anything useful to add beyond gut feelings, you're better off doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 I tried trading in Dec for greener pastures 2 years in a row. F that sh!t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro has the storm for the next weekend. It's warm, probably a back end snow, but the storm is there, 1004 mb low sitting just off of Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I tried trading in Dec for greener pastures 2 years in a row. F that sh!t Yep, around here you better take it when you can get it. Besides, I'd gladly trade the rest of the winter for a good December. No worries w/ sun-angle, and if you get some cold air you can keep the snow around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think by next weekend we are in a pretty bad pattern for a storm....southern stream dies down....gradient pattern with se ridge, super +west based nao, with pos height anomalies over us and a -PNA....now that isn't to say it will be warm...THis was supposed to be my torchy period, but there is so much fricking cold air in the CONUS we will have trouble getting too warm...but it won't be good for a storm.....I think HM may be early with his 1st storm window,..but from 12/22 - 1/10...I think we will have multiple chances especially during the heart of that window.....we are already seeing the idea of transient -NAO's and PNA spikes showing up toward that range....with so much cold air we will have a better chance of timing something and perhaps we can actually get a block.... Matt, you may be right. But, the idea of an active period, winter-wise, is turning out to be the case, and more, for 12/5-12/20. I also feel the active "wave pool" and short-wavelengths/high frequency pattern will continue to prolong this pattern. The only way to sum up the next 10 days is 1980s-like! Here's the funny thing: the MJO signal is organizing again and may be heading into El Nino-like phases by the period you're outlining here. So, I 100% agree with it and feel the warm calls by MANY outfits will be incorrect. By warm, I mean +EPO / blowtorch CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This mornings GFS run is cold and stormy through Christmas. Really a nice look for the holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Weekend storm still wet verbatim. 12z gfs shows a 50/50 in place and plenty of cold in front but the ss vort phases with some ns energy and it cuts. The cold hp slides off the coast and there's nothing in SE canada to help. It's a viable solution but the threat isn't dead. Less phasing would certainly help. I personally don't see how it gets better than messy at our latitude. Could end up being miller b'ish for SNE. Maybe someone else sees more promise. I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Back to the freezer after the rainstorm, anyway. That's more like the MA we know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Weekend storm still wet verbatim. 12z gfs shows a 50/50 in place and plenty of cold in front but the ss vort phases with some ns energy and it cuts. The cold hp slides off the coast and there's nothing in SE canada to help. It's a viable solution but the threat isn't dead. Less phasing would certainly help. I personally don't see how it gets better than messy at our latitude. Could end up being miller b'ish for SNE. Maybe someone else sees more promise. I don't. i havent really seen any snow solutions for this storm. Its either a suppressor or it cuts...i think we see a mix. I am not confident that its a rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 i havent really seen any snow solutions for this storm. Its either a suppressor or it cuts...i think we see a mix. I am not confident that its a rain event High pressure over SE Canada is weaker than this past storm. 1024 on GFS. However there is a lot of cold air available nearby if it can be tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Christmas looks chilly on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 i havent really seen any snow solutions for this storm. Its either a suppressor or it cuts...i think we see a mix. I am not confident that its a rain event I wouldn't think all rain either at this stage either. IF we get precip it would seem to favor mixed to start but inconsequential verbatim on all guidance. Always have to watch a ss storm and an arctic hp though. You just never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 the GFS run shows cold shot followed by non snow storms followed by cold shots. I guess DC is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 the GFS run shows cold shot followed by non snow storms followed by cold shots. I guess DC is back I thought it showed another arctic invasion bleeding east with an active southern stream. The big difference compared to the current pattern is the ridging out west so the arctic airmass enters the middle of the country instead of portland. I'll take chances here. If we aren't going to get a block lets keep riding the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The Euro shows the storm at 120 but it's way too warm. It really weakens the high pressure to the north. Another win to the american models it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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