Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 There has been a definitive shift in ens guidance over the last day or so. It looks like a shift towards a -nao is slowly becoming likely. It's not an optimal -nao look at all but it's there nonetheless. Both the gefs and euro ens have backed off on the idea of digging low heights into the goa and off the west coast with a flat zonal look across the conus. Ens are trending towards potential for the ridging near GL to assist in a more amplified pattern across the conus. It looks progressive to me but a period of ridges and troughs may become more likely than having the pac jet scream across the country. We had a big warm signal in early november but the whole landscape changed because of the epo. Now it looks like the recent warm signal may change because of a more favorable state of the ao/nao. Warmth after this week is looking more and more scarce attm. It is definitely not some sort of perfect cold/stormy pattern. Even with a -nao it looks east based to start and with an overall -pna we are still fighting a nw storm track. I just don't want to torch. I can deal with everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This is pattern thread. I personally prefer no banter and just maps and disco. More for longer range stuff. I guess we're figuring it out. There's a banter and an obs disco thread. I think the intent is to move threat talk to obs disco once we're inside of 5-6 days. Makse sense because if the threat is viable there will be heavy posting and longer range stuff will get lost in the shuffle. Pattern thread needs to be free of bull****. I come here for analysis. I post my stuff or obs in appropriate threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Kind of a stupid question, but does it matter how much QPF we get with the first system? Or does that not really matter and what matters more is how far south the front gets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like a brief period of sleet/snow showers are possible early Sat morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Pattern thread needs to be free of bull****. I come here for analysis. I post my stuff or obs in appropriate threads. you should be a mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Kind of a stupid question, but does it matter how much QPF we get with the first system? Or does that not really matter and what matters more is how far south the front gets? There are no stupid questions only stupid posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 There are no stupid questions only stupid posters. Thanks Ian Dual 1041/1042 H's in the Northern Plains at 108... CAD looks better at 114 as the 0c line gets pushed into C NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I am going to pretend that the sneaky midlayer warmth is fine at 120-126 and that is all snow... cause it is a snow sounding if its heavy enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS looks better than 6z. Temps are below freezing at all levels through 18z on Sunday at least per instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I am going to pretend that the sneaky midlayer warmth is fine at 120 and 123 and that is snow... cause it is a snow sounding if its heavy enough What layer are you seeing warmth? 850-750 looks quite near freezing, but probably below even for DC at those times from what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS looks better than 6z. Temps are below freezing at all levels through 18z on Sunday at least per instantweathermaps. Agreed, per WxBell maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 What layer are you seeing warmth? 850-750 looks quite near freezing, but probably below even for DC at those times from what I see. Yes that is the layer I am watching... it sits near 0 for the entire time BTW, 28/29 at 10am with snow? Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Better confluence to the north holding the hp. Definitely a better run. Showing some clues as to how we can get that hp to not fold like the skins in the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yes that is the layer I am watching... it sits near 0 for the entire time BTW, 28/29 at 10am with snow? Nice Yeah, it's close. Verbatim, this is probably the best GFS run in a day and a half or so I'd say. A couple inches of snow, some mixing with sleet and then all washed away in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 ZR for me and a lot of the eastern slopes of VA from around 114hr-132hr per the 12z GFS. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 at 120 hrs, at least for BWI, I think maybe some snow but mainly sleet before turning to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 looks like the Low is so far to our west, we don't get the strong push of warm air into our area so surface temps hold on to the cold longer than earlier runs, but eventually it gets real warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Raleigh maps show 3-5... overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Raleigh maps show 3-5... overdone?There are no stupid questions Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Raleigh maps show 3-5... overdone? no, underdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Raleigh maps show 3-5... overdone? mostly sleet I would guess soundings should confirm that based on critical thickness maps on ncep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Weatherbell loves the Winchester area. They've already had like 300" of model snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 There are no stupid questions Yoda. whatsa' stupid question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 whatsa' stupid question?I love Yoda but every storm seems like his first with the questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 at 120 hrs, at least for BWI, I think maybe some snow but mainly sleet before turning to rain We're all probably debating this at too fine a level of detail (what else is new?), but I think BWI and DCA are both probably snow at 18z on Sunday at least. Sort of shows what an earlier GFS run showed that Matt posted the temps for. Temps actually cool slightly aloft (maybe a wet bulb effect?) after precip onset before everything warms up later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Legit snow from 168-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We're all probably debating this at too fine a level of detail (what else is new?), but I think BWI and DCA are both probably snow at 18z on Sunday at least. Sort of shows what an earlier GFS run showed that Matt posted the temps for. Temps actually cool slightly aloft (maybe a wet bulb effect?) after precip onset before everything warms up later in the day. I thought debating soundings at 120hrs+ was obligatory around here the one thing I find encouraging is that the GFS has seemingly stopped (for now?) diminishing our chances of wintry precip to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Interesting evolution on the 12z GFS in that the GL cutter shortwave folds to the PV coming out of Hudson Bay, leaving a large pos tilted cold set-up with precip running up the old front. Edit: Meanwhile, -30 850T into Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Legit snow from 168-on. where'd that come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Tail end charlie wave on Tuesday snows us again. Highzenburg rule in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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