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December and a Hint of January Pattern Discussion

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Global ops and ens all continue to show the aleutian ridge staying intact through the first 8 days of Dec. Temps are below to well below normal through the whole period post rainstorm.

Atlantic remains a thorn in many ways but optimal patterns are few and far between. Hard to say if we can score anything with the southern stream but at least it isn't dead. Northern stream should be active enough to keep the period interesting and trackable.

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snow.

snow.

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A lot of folks went warm in Dec and now fights are breaking out in the main forum with the arctic hounds descending. 

 

We will likely have a warm spell in Dec but there is a fair chance that the - departures that could potentially build the first couple weeks may prove too much to overcome. Long ways to go but I think many of the same folks that went warm would say something different had the first forecast not been made. Not poking at matt in any way. There's been a lot of universal warm talk from a lot of folks. 

 

Now glimmers of hope are showing up with blocking. If we end up with a -ao on average for the month then more fights are going to break out. 

 

I was probably too ambitious but no going back now....not having a -AO pretty much prevents us from going more than -1 or so......I think even that 1st week is in doubt and it wouldn't surprise me to have 2-3 + departure days...we are really benefitting from norms right now....we are going to be around -0.4 after today and then go into the freezer on the back of an extremely anomalous air mass.....our -15 tomorrow is a -5 a month from now....so I think in december it starts to become a question of how nasty are these air masses going to be....can these cold shots keep up with the norms?....I think if the AO stays neutral or + we are going to have to rely on some 1983 like motherlode to get us into the -2 to -3 range...some cold shot where we are -60 over a 5-6 day stretch,........of course the AO could go negative in which case we are cold and possibly snowy (for december)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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I agree Matt. Starting a month cold and going door to door are entirely 2 different things. Without a good Atlantic it becomes likely to have heights rise out in front of anything diving into and exiting the west. Not necessarily a torch but not cold either.

The state of the ao is far from resolved in the lr.

Ens are all over the place. Same with the nao. We seem to be in good shape for a +pna into early Dec but it's rarely a stable feature.

Very stubborn -epo in place. I suppose we'll have to rely on that for the foreseeable future and hope to get some help with blocking sometime during Dec if we are to finish cold.

I went -1 to -2 for Dec but I wouldn't be surprised if we finished on the + side. It would be pretty awesome to finish colder though and that's not off the table...yet...

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yoda

yoda

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It appears that the Dec 3-6 time period is going to be volitaile on the models as we move into December... others have mentioned that time period in this thread, but I believe that will be our first real chance to see snow around here.  Granted, the 12z GFS is too warm, but cold air is nearby and we icebox for a few days after the low goes by. 

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snow.

snow.

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It appears that the Dec 3-6 time period is going to be volitaile on the models as we move into December... others have mentioned that time period in this thread, but I believe that will be our first real chance to see snow around here.  Granted, the 12z GFS is too warm, but cold air is nearby and we icebox for a few days after the low goes by. 

 

not sure about that...the pattern is crazy fast....that is the type of pattern where you have a midnight high of 50, afternoon high of 32, and then 45 the next day and 56 the day after....That said I think we have a better than normal chance of a -15 day in the 1st 10-15 days of December...The EPO/WPO shows no signs of not being an epic cold producer for the forseeable future...As long as the atlantic is advers, .I could see a progression like this

 

57, 35, 26, 45, 60

 

Actually, I'll go ahead and predict it since there is nothing to lose, and I can say I was 1st ;)

 

We will have at least one -15 day in the 1st half of December

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snow.

snow.

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Euro likes Dec. 3 for our next threat and not 12/5

anyone with the pay site have info on that?

850's look to be around -2C and there is definitely qpf

 

light snow...run ends, but up to that point ~0.15" QPF...falls overnight...why not? (don't answer :(

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snow.

snow.

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thanks....at least there's a threat on all the mr models to one degree or the other

 

honestly, I think almost everyone...weenies and mets, is on board with elevated snow chances over the next 2 weeks

 

edit: GFS has the storm but is super warm

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SerialDerecho

SerialDerecho

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00z GFS would def suggest POTENTIAL for some winter fun Dec 3 to Dec 10 time period... weenie range... but its nice to see GFS at least hinting in various forms of a large storm around Dec 5

 

Puts us in a deep freeze too.   I'll gladly give up the chance for any thanksgiving winter fun if it sets up a pattern anywhere near what the GFS spits out for Dec 1-10

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snow.

snow.

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No excuse for cwg to miss December when their winter forecast came 2 weeks before december started:)?

 actually agree...if DEC ends up neg it is a bad bad miss..I actually put off the outlook for a week because I wanted to get DEC correct and I couldnt figure it out...

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Coastal still banging those warm warning signs?

 

Not really. Just pointing out that the -pna / trough in the west is showing up on the op and ens. Euro ens d11-15 show the overall look but there isn't any ridging here in response. The solid -epo shows up strong through the whole run keeping the delivery for cold into the conus intact. The bullseye shifts west but it's not static. Without the atlantic helping we will remain in a variable pattern for the foreseeable future. Those thoughts haven't changed much in weeks. Temps go up. Temps go down. But at least there is no sign of a torch. 

 

Temps are still AOB through the whole run of the euro op and ens and the gfs agrees. We're just not in the icebox. 

 

Personally, I'm not concerned about the way way out there stuff anyways. I would be shocked if we didn't have a mild spell or 2 this Dec. Or even a mild period covering a week or more. Uncertainty will remain high until we get something to slow the flow down. It ,may not even happen. 

 

I'm focused on the first week to 10 days of Dec. The active pattern seems likely. Strong signal from the global ops and ens shows up every run. Nothing will be resolved until mid-close range with this flow either but an active northern stream and "possible" southern stream interaction is definitely on the table. We just need to be on the winning side for once. We're due!

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snow.

snow.

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Congrats Zwwyts i guess. How did we lose the cold dec start so quickly

There is a lot of residual and low/mid level cold even when heights rise. Plus as long as we have a good PAC we'll get cold shots. It probably won't be warm to start. But we need blocking. Otherwise we'll keep getting rain. :(

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yoda

yoda

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There is a lot of residual and low/mid level cold even when heights rise. Plus as long as we have a good PAC we'll get cold shots. It probably won't be warm to start. But we need blocking. Otherwise we'll keep getting rain. :(

That's what blows the most - that there is no blocking. We get the cold air blasts, but its all for nothing really

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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There is a lot of residual and low/mid level cold even when heights rise. Plus as long as we have a good PAC we'll get cold shots. It probably won't be warm to start. But we need blocking. Otherwise we'll keep getting rain. :(

Yea, it's frustrating in the sense if it's not one thing it's another. We have a southern storm track with nothing to keep it under us. It's not even warm wet / cold dry. It's cool wet / colder dry.

Op is still there for something messy though. Gotta watch the 12/2-3 timeframe. Possible overrunning of some sort is starting to show up.

12z euro ens are not as bad as the op but we will struggle when it counts without some sort of 50/50 or -nao.

No torch showing up anytime soon at least.

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