clueless Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 But based on the pattern pretty much expected. Unfortunately, I think the 18Z GFS and 12 Euro make the most sense. Damn you Spock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Wonder how Friday night trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This kind of reminds me of a couple of January 1999 setups where we got freezing rain and rain after very cold days with highs in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This kind of reminds me of a couple of January 1999 setups where we got freezing rain and rain after very cold days with highs in the teens. this storm sort of reminds me of winters at BWI for 50+ years actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 What I remember about these types of setups is snow or sleet changing to freezing rain. Then it ususlly took longer than advertised to change over to rain. Things will change a few more times on the models most likely but that 1040 HP system might be a little more resistant to moving out than what is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 looks like starting with today we will have 5 consecutive plus departure days which is something we haven't seen since mid October. I think after that is somewhat up in the air, but I wouldn't characterize this as a brief warm up I am talking about pattern, big picture, not 5 days out of the next 30 and the preceeding 30. This is a brief warm up in an overall colder than average pattern which I started talking about around November 10th, which has proven to be true, and which I beleive will continue to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS last night was showing a pretty robust 50-50...that has pretty much completely disappeared..add in the stronger GL low and hence the solution I think that low is still the one hope for holding the cold air in a little longer even if the low goes into the lakes region. Keep the high from slipping quite as quickly and the damming will hold on a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Even looking at the doom and gloom 18z GFS, there still appeared to be about a six hour window where both the 850mb and surface were below freezing. It looked like from the WxBell maps that .3" of QPF fell during that time in Nortern Virginia and points west. Maybe I am grasping for straws, but it seems all hope is not lost; at least for another 40 minutes or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I am talking about pattern, big picture, not 5 days out of the next 30 and the preceeding 30. This is a brief warm up in an overall colder than average pattern which I started talking about around November 10th, which has proven to be true, and which I beleive will continue to be true. Gotcha..makes sense.....We will have to see if it comes to fruition this week but when you have a couple +15's they aren't as easily erased as the +2's like we had today...There is definitely some support for your idea since so much cold has built up...that we will be cold longer than the pattern "supports" it. At some point you need a pattern change or the residual cold air masses become more stale.....I am torn over what will happen temp wise...my thought was that we go warm for a week starting around the 15th and then cold again around Christmas...But I am not sure...You've had a very good call so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 I agree Matt. It's super tricky this month for sure. Pretty big dump and plenty of - departures will likely offset the early warmth. My wag would be dead even mid month on departures. We all got fooled in Nov with the lr ens showing warmth. Is it a repeat? I'm kinda sold on a modest warm stretch at the very least coming up in 2 weeks or so but man, who knows? It's a fun year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like GFS backed off its 18z super wet rain QPF for Friday into Saturday... shoved the QPF max north into S PA. On 00z, DCA is around 0.7 QPF. 18z was 2.5 times that (comparing 24 hr QPF totals of 108 on 18z and 102 on 00z) 1038 H in WI at 126... hoping the 850 line gets further south than C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like GFS backed off its 18z super wet rain QPF for Friday into Saturday... shoved the QPF max north into S PA. On 00z, DCA is around 0.7 QPF. 18z was 2.5 times that (comparing 24 hr QPF totals of 108 on 18z and 102 on 00z) 1038 H in W WI at 117 I have got to be honest, I'm pretty good at forecasting model runs judging by earlier frames. 123 makes it look like this run is going to be (a.) further west with the low as the digging looks to curl the low out west and (b.) the overall scheme of things looks warmer than 18z which was already a tough run for the city folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I have got to be honest, I'm pretty good at forecasting model runs judging by earlier frames. 123 makes it look like this run is going to be (a.) further west with the low as the digging looks to curl the low out west and (b.) the overall scheme of things looks warmer than 18z which was already a tough run for the city folk. Faster on the precipt, slower and not as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Well at least it looks like we sneak in some snow/sleet 129-135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Its borderline, but verbatim on this run of the GFS my yard gets 0.75" in a 12-hr period with surface temps below freezing (through 144h.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 the 500mb on this run is horrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 What a debacle. Gonna wait to see if 12z confirms, the sudden h5 shift has me suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 What a debacle. Gonna wait to see if 12z confirms, the sudden h5 shift has me suspicious. whats so suspicious at losing a snowy solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Already not particularly fond of the Euro thru 120hrs. The SE ridge is located a bit further west and digging in behind the southern system is once again stronger. The orientation of the maps makes it likely this run is again warmer and drives the low right into MI. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Maybe and hopefully I'll be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Even though CAD looks decent through 132, the high is drifting east quickly so I'd expect a 12z redux or even warmer. Also looks a decent bit drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 here's the bad news: 0z models are a disaster Good news: We're in the middle of the first quarter and down by 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 here's the bad news: 0z models are a disaster Good news: We're in the middle of the first quarter and down by 14. Please tell me you did not stay up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 here's the bad news: 0z models are a disaster Good news: We're in the middle of the first quarter and down by 14. True, the Broncos were in a similar mishap, and came back to win. Problem is our team is the Jaguars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Please tell me you did not stay up for the Euro. Dude, no. If it's more than 3 days out for any storm and I'm up at this hour, it's because I can't sleep. I have insomnia like a mofo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Dude, no. If it's more than 3 days out for any storm and I'm up at this hour, it's because I can't sleep. I have insomnia like a mofo. Ok good i thought maybe you lost your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 True, the Broncos were in a similar mishap, and came back to win. Problem is our team is the Jaguars. Let's hope we are Cecil Shorts and the Euro/GFS is Joe Haden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Let's hope we are Cecil Shorts and the Euro/GFS is Joe Haden.Cecil complains about not enough targets. We get plenty but drop all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 0Z Euro snow is horrid btw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Looks like the 6z GFS has trended colder at the surface than the last 2 runs or so. 850's are still fairly toasty. Could be a quick hour or two or snow until hours of IP or ZR for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 A lot will depend on how far south the arctic front gets and allows colder air to filter in. Seems that the SE ridge is flexing its muscles on the GFs the last couple runs where the euro has colder temps around a bit more for a better shot at a mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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