yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ice ice baby this run it would appear west of I-95... 850 line cross DC at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Surface is above freezing by 21z for 95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 This is going to torch really soon like the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Man my ideas of mostly cold are really panning out. After yet another brief mild up we get really cold in wake of departing Sunday storm. Will wait on the Sunday event until about Thursday to comment as by then the synoptics begin to take place versus the models "cover all bases" approach. Not for nothing dude, but the next 5 days including today are above normal in DC, including what is close to a +15 anomaly on Thursday. I wouldn't call that necessarily brief. It will get cold by this weekend sure, but the extreme cold anomalies will remain northwest of DC and the pattern relaxes in the 11-15 day...If anything DC is close to normal or slightly below over the next 15 days when you sum everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 unfortunate run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 We need the shortwave that this low is associated with to be weaker when it comes out of the west, compare the GFS/EURO to the GGEM (snowiest solution) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 unfortunate run It's a beast of a hp but it slides just enough east at a critical time. Only 20 some runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 unfortunate run But based on the pattern pretty much expected. Unfortunately, I think the 18Z GFS and 12 Euro make the most sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Pretty incredible similarities between the 18Z GFS and Euro for 150 hours out. Both are a concern for the Shenendoah Valley for ice. Has the CMC ever scored a coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 But based on the pattern pretty much expected. Unfortunately, I think the 18Z GFS and 12 Euro make the most sense. I agree, if we had blocking I'd question it, while the High is strong, there is nothing to hold it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 But based on the pattern pretty much expected. Unfortunately, I think the 18Z GFS and 12 Euro make the most sense. yeah..which is fine..we'll see some frozen, at least in the western burbs, and maybe the CAD will hold in longer than progged..still such a long way away, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I agree, if we had blocking I'd question it, while the High is strong, there is nothing to hold it there. that GL vort just tightens up like a spinning top and curls to its left, right towards the Lakes the last one did it too; can't fight the default setting on these systems: 7 days out, mainly snow, 6 days out mainly mix, 5 days or less....we can all probably guess based on the last system where this one is headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 unfortunate run We just can't have a SE flow into a developing low in the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I agree, if we had blocking I'd question it, while the High is strong, there is nothing to hold it there. GFS last night was showing a pretty robust 50-50...that has pretty much completely disappeared..add in the stronger GL low and hence the solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 yeah..which is fine..we'll see some frozen, at least in the western burbs, and maybe the CAD will hold in longer than progged..still such a long way away, It is a long way off but the stupid analogs probably were telling us something. Out towards winchester they still should have a nice period of freezing rain I'd think. My house looks like mostly rain. Going to the lakes probably will lead to still another 1 or 2 days of warmer than normal temps with the mins being warmer relative to normal than the maxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 We have the big Alaskan ridge, so energy keeps being driven into the PAC NW, that would be okay to a degree if we had some blocking, but we don't, so the heights keep rising on the East Coast. It seems like it will be this way until we get a pattern change; warm, cold front, warm, cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Day 10 on the GFS is a repeat, but there is a sign of some blocking, so if anything there could be a glimmer of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GFS last night was showing a pretty robust 50-50...that has pretty much completely disappeared..add in the stronger GL low and hence the solution This is probably part of the problem too Last night at 165 hours 18z at 147 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It is a long way off but the stupid analogs probably were telling us something. Out towards winchester they still should have a nice period of freezing rain I'd think. My house looks like mostly rain. Going to the lakes probably will lead to still another 1 or 2 days of warmer than normal temps with the mins being warmer relative to normal than the maxes. If the warmer rainier solution comes to fruition, I don't think we'll be too disappointed...better now than 6 hours before onset.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Day 10 on the GFS is a repeat, but there is a sign of some blocking, so if anything there could be a glimmer of hope.When there's no hope at d10+ it's time for a new hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Seems to me, at a quick glance, the difference lies in central Canada. That bowling ball sitting there on this run wasn't there on the 0z run. Looks like it causes the trof to be sharper and hence this whole thing jumping north as quickly as it does. I don't know if that analysis is correct, nor do I know how accurately something like that would be modeled this far in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 This is probably part of the problem too Last night at 165 hours 0zgfs.PNG 18z at 147 hours 18zgfs.PNG That makes sense too. Nothing sitting north of us to keep it from screaming up west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It is a long way off but the stupid analogs probably were telling us something. Out towards winchester they still should have a nice period of freezing rain I'd think. My house looks like mostly rain. Going to the lakes probably will lead to still another 1 or 2 days of warmer than normal temps with the mins being warmer relative to normal than the maxes. Probably only one day with the mins being above normal possibly giving us a day near normal or slightly above. I hadn't looked at the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 If the warmer rainier solution comes to fruition, I don't think we'll be too disappointed...better now than 6 hours before onset.... If it holds and I think it more likely than not, it will make tomorrows article kind of boring except for the Winchester crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 If the warmer rainier solution comes to fruition, I don't think we'll be too disappointed...better now than 6 hours before onset.... Good catch on the last night vs tonight. We all knew it would be messy but it looked better on the front end stuff yesterday. We still have a beast of a hp in a great spot but the latest trends are less favorable for letting it slide so easily. And the more pronounced gl low just adds to the problems. But it is what it is and we'll probably be teased again with better runs. There are reasonable shifts that can go in our favor. Time to look for those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I suspect by the time this things is actually on our doorstep, the entire east coast up to NNE will be flooded with warm air again so be it; it's early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The synoptic setup is very similar to the Euro but the result is quite different on the 18z GFS. The Euro has my area below freezing for about 90% of the QPF, while the GFS looks to about 40%. At this point, I think the Euro has been more steady on the lingering CAD, while the GFS has eroded it over the past 3 runs. I'm sure DT will put something out body slamming the GFS after the 0z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Having the 588DM over Orlando and the 582 over Wilmington was never a good sign for us getting much snow. Some of the highest heights in the northern Hemisphere are between Florida and Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Having the 588DM over Orlando and the 582 over Wilmington was never a good sign for us getting much snow. Some of the highest heights in the northern Hemisphere are between Florida and Bermuda. Modeled heights. On another note, my prediction of 30 earlier today appears to have been way too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Oh well maybe next time. At least Randy will be able to make it to work on Sunday with little fanfare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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