Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Looks like a block forming on Day 10 EURO as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Wunderground snw maps show around 3"+ in DCA/BWI proper, with more N&W so they do confirm Earthsat fwiw Sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro ens still showing a warmer pattern for the entire conus d12-15. Might be some low level cold around but 850's are above freezing for the southern 2/3rds of the country. No torch or anything but nothing exciting. Looks like an east based -nao develops but with the -pna and low heights in the goa the effects won't be felt until the flow amplifies. Coldest temp anomalies in north america appear to be confined in the western half of canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Wunderground snw maps show around 3"+ in DCA/BWI proper, with more N&W so they do confirm Earthsat fwiw Where do I sign up for 3" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 CWG going with the "ground still warm" fallacy in their otherwise excellent discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro ens still showing a warmer pattern for the entire conus d12-15. Might be some low level cold around but 850's are above freezing for the southern 2/3rds of the country. No torch or anything but nothing exciting. Looks like an east based -nao develops but with the -pna and low heights in the goa the effects won't be felt until the flow amplifies. Coldest temp anomalies in north america appear to be confined in the western half of canada. they jump around every 12 hrs; I never feel safe when they're in our favor and never lose hope if they are against us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 CWG going with the "ground still warm" fallacy in their otherwise excellent discussion. never mind the -3 Novie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 CWG going with the "ground still warm" fallacy in their otherwise excellent discussion.It's not really a fallacy especially for freezing rain. One of those issues both sides are obstinate about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'd lock Wunderground NOW-- it's like 4-6 inches here. Think it's still overdone in my part of VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 they jump around every 12 hrs; I never feel safe when they're in our favor and never lose hope if they are against us They aren't jumping around right now though. At least 3 straight days of the same overall look. The main difference with the gfs is it looks more transient. The epo ridge migrates eastward during the period while the euro holds it firmly in a less favorable spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The euro ens mean has its low in the great lakes at 168 for those interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It's not really a fallacy especially for freezing rain. One of those issues both sides are obstinate about. It's not a fallacy for lighter snowfall rates either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It's not really a fallacy especially for freezing rain. One of those issues both sides are obstinate about. Yes it is, outside of freezing rain obviously. It's not absolute for snow either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It's not really a fallacy especially for freezing rain. One of those issues both sides are obstinate about. Yeah the ground can affect ZR...though the biggest impact of ZR is on the trees/railings/powerlines/etc. All of which are not affected by warm temps prior to the event. The roads can be spared though as a potential large impact problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The Euro has had issues with trying to scour out the CAD too quickly in the past. We all know how the cold air tends to stick around longer than modeled. I would assume the Euro is showing a nasty ice storm out this way. The GFS is a mostly snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah the ground can affect ZR...though the biggest impact of ZR is on the trees/railings/powerlines/etc. All of which are not affected by warm temps prior to the event. The roads can be spared though as a potential large impact problem. I'm talking as far as snowfall. Clearly ZR is gonna be affected because it's a precip that needs to uh..freeze on contact. A met here posted research about the whole "warm ground affecting accumulations" bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It's not a fallacy for lighter snowfall rates either. I'm not sure it needed a major highlight at this point but probably better to downplay as much as possible given the past few winters and the readership tending to think we overtalked most of the events given the paltry results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'm talking as far as snowfall. Clearly ZR is gonna be affected because it's a precip that needs to uh..freeze on contact. A met here posted research about the whole "warm ground affecting accumulations" bit. Yeah, but it still matters. Again.. people are too black and white on the issue depending on where they fall. It may not be the most important aspect of many storms but I've seen plenty of 32 degree temps with light snow that doesn't do much because the ground is still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Man my ideas of mostly cold are really panning out. After yet another brief mild up we get really cold in wake of departing Sunday storm. Will wait on the Sunday event until about Thursday to comment as by then the synoptics begin to take place versus the models "cover all bases" approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 18z GFS really holding that energy out west back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That first rainy system on Fri/Sat is really wet this run. 2" QPF maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Man my ideas of mostly cold are really panning out. After yet another brief mild up we get really cold in wake of departing Sunday storm. Will wait on the Sunday event until about Thursday to comment as by then the synoptics begin to take place versus the models "cover all bases" approach. looks like starting with today we will have 5 consecutive plus departure days which is something we haven't seen since mid October. I think after that is somewhat up in the air, but I wouldn't characterize this as a brief warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That first rainy system on Fri/Sat is really wet this run. 2" QPF maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That first rainy system on Fri/Sat is really wet this run. 2" QPF maybe? Have we had an event in winters past where we get 1 to 2 inches of rain, followed by 4" of snow 24 to 48 hrs later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 That first rainy system on Fri/Sat is really wet this run. 2" QPF maybe? Sure looks that way. Solid stripe of 2". Maybe ends as flurries too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 18Z a little faster with the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 18Z a little faster with the cold air. 1040mb high in classic position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 is that a 1048 HP at 141 Hrs? It's 1040 I think lol, line underneath screwed with my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 is that a 1048 HP at 141 Hrs? It's 1040 I think lol, line underneath screwed with my eyes. It varies in the upper 1030s to 1040 through 147 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It looks warmer and dryer so far to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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