Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 one of those drifting highs and toasty. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 lol...euro warms pretty quickly...next EURO looks more like a big icestorm to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 EURO looks more like a big icestorm to me yes..until it is 45 degrees shortly after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Does a wimpy 1016 low push the 1040 high off to the east right away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 On freebie EURO maps its hard to decipher, can't get surface readings for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 lol...euro warms pretty quickly...next +12 850 by 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It may be a blessing in disguise if this storm ends up being a strong cutter, You can see the EURO at Day 7 the pattern looks REALLY good to me. -AO forming and a nice shortwave in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Does a wimpy 1016 low push the 1040 high off to the east right away? This is the issue I have, in addition to the h5 set up not really fully supporting a low pushing that far n/w into the GL region. The high holds much stronger on the other modeling. This set up is not frequented by the models, so its anyones game at this point. Pretty good agreement on high placement so it should be there down the road, but I don't see this 1016mb low doing what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 On freebie EURO maps its hard to decipher, can't get surface readings for temps. yeah,,.we get warm quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro seems to cut down on the precip quite a bit for the event too. Not quite the major icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It may be a blessing in disguise if this storm ends up being a strong cutter, You can see the EURO at Day 7 the pattern looks REALLY good to me. -AO forming and a nice shortwave in the southwest. I remember you doing this for months last winter. Every lame storm was actually a good thing since it supposedly would lead to an awesome pattern "down the road." We are still waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It may be a blessing in disguise if this storm ends up being a strong cutter, You can see the EURO at Day 7 the pattern looks REALLY good to me. -AO forming and a nice shortwave in the southwest. What I really think might be showing up is what we sometimes see after a big cutter. The low is not that strong either way, but after cutters we get a quasi transient PNA ridge that brings in a temporary shot at a system, however in a faster flow that type of pattern is not the one you want. In this area, the best bet is to hope for this storm, and not another one down the road. The pattern will warm temporarily for mid month, at least in my opinion, which corresponds with what others are saying. I want to remind those that aren't the most educated in this that you shouldn't dismiss the solutions of the models because of what the Euro is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Its one EURO run still really far out, EURO tends to over due strength of lows coming out of the Southwest, we'll see what the ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I remember you doing this for months last winter. Every lame storm was actually a good thing since it supposedly would lead to an awesome pattern "down the road." We are still waiting. icez is an optimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I remember you doing this for months last winter. Every lame storm was actually a good thing since it supposedly would lead to an awesome pattern "down the road." We are still waiting. Haha, I'm a glass half full type of person, its hope that gets me through the winter to soothe my sickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Its one EURO run still really far out, EURO tends to over due strength of lows coming out of the Southwest, we'll see what the ensembles show. nobody is on the ledge...it is just good to see the range of possibilties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Speaking of the range of possibilities, here's the 12z GEFS plumes for BWI. 1 or 2 that are all snow, several all rain, most are a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Northeast resident here. I feel all your pain. I see a lot if us latching onto this really soon if it gets a little closer. I don't want a cutter. I think we are more in a rinse and repeat pattern if we get that cutter. Cutter goes through, we cool off, then another cutter rolls through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Northeast resident here. I feel all your pain. I see a lot if us latching onto this really soon if it gets a little closer. I don't want a cutter. I think we are more in a rinse and repeat pattern if we get that cutter. Cutter goes through, we cool off, then another cutter rolls through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Highzenberg's Uncertainty Principle: the less precisely the track of the next storm is known, the more precisely the storm after it can be forecast... Or something like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Highzenberg's Uncertainty Principle: the less precisely the track of the next storm is known, the more precisely the storm after it can be forecast... Or something like that... No no you have it wrong, in my messed up brain I create a win-win scenario. Win #1 we get a nice little ice/snow storm Dec 9 Win #2, low heads into the Lakes, is much stronger, helps create some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 LOL you guys are gonna laugh if I post the same snowfall accum map for what looked like an awful euro solution and here it is...Riddle me that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 LOL you guys are gonna laugh if I post the same snowfall accum map for what looked like an awful euro solution I saw it already. It actually looks about the same as 0z, but 90% of that is IP. There is no way with those 850s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 No no you have it wrong, in my messed up brain I create a win-win scenario. Win #1 we get a nice little ice/snow storm Dec 9 Win #2, low heads into the Lakes, is much stronger, helps create some blocking. Looks like another small mixing event at 204 on the Euro. Warms up quick though (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 nobody is on the ledge...it is just good to see the range of possibilties It is important to see the range of possibilities. All the models have a low going north of us. I think the farther north and strong it is, the more likely we see a euro solution in terms of QPF. A low more towards the GFS and GGEM track will be heavier but I don't see it being as wet as the GFS which too me looks wet. Heck the euro would be good for you dec call as we'd have a day or two with high mins to add to the torch coming up. If I had to guess, I'd lean towards a euro solution based on the position of the ridge in the west being so far offshore but for any CWG discussion, I probably won't yet jump onto any model forecast this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Looking at the Weatherbell maps, it appears IAD doesn't get above freezing at the surface until around 162hrs, after the majority of the precip has fallen, so that's a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Wow, didn't realize how cold the euro is d9-10. Lows in the low to mid teens through the cities and single digits further west and north. Hard to say if the wave after the mess has any merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 LOL you guys are gonna laugh if I post the same snowfall accum map for what looked like an awful euro solution and here it is...Riddle me that one euro7daysout.png Forgive my aged eyes. Are you saying NOVA is in the 4-8 inch range or less than an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The Euro may win this in the end (even though I can't see what it has spit out in great detail), but it has not been consistent with its solutions of what might occur. The GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Wunderground snw maps show around 3"+ in DCA/BWI proper, with more N&W so they do confirm Earthsat fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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