NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 at the very least far western burbs would get pummeled according to the model...It is a poor map and of little use..we know our backyard pretty well and the map is absolutely unsupported by soundings... Just peaked at soundings due west of DC on twisterdata and I agree with you there, map is not an accurate depiction of that model... southwest VA the warm layer comes in quick though And I would never site a GFS run/weenie snow map and imply that you guys don't know your own back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Just peaked at soundings due west of DC on twisterdata and I agree with you there, map is not an accurate depiction of that model... southwest VA the warm layer comes in quick though And I would never site a GFS run/weenie snow map and imply that you guys don't know your own back yard. yes..I edited my post..what do you think about the warm nose being like +0.3-ish...Is that a snow sounding if precip is heavy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Assuming this threat does not trend north over the next few days, this would easily be ice storm warning criteria across 75% of VA. For us in the western and SW areas against the mountains, it's very hard to trust the GFS soundings verbatim since the resolution is poor enough that elevation change is not well accounted for (blending). I would be willing to bet the CAD strength in these areas won't be fully worked out until the high resolution models start kicking in 84 hours out (the Euro is best for now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 yes..I edited my post..what do you think about the warm nose being like +0.3-ish...Is that a snow sounding if precip is heavy? If the forecast were perfect it probably would be a snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 If the forecast were perfect it probably would be a snow sounding. you going to wait for euro and euro ens before starting your article? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 UKIE has great position of the 1037 H... in extreme S Quebec at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 One has to wonder if this will be the year of the ice storm. As we get later in the season if these types of setups keep showing up, someone is going to get an ugly ice storm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 soundings for gfs at BWI are all snow thru 147 hrs, then they jump at 150 hrs and show sleet, but drop back down at 153 hrs to all snow (similar to IAD) rates must be the cause because thru 153 hrs, .75" has fallen by 156 hrs, it's >32 thru 800mb that's a great hit of snow and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 One has to wonder if this will be the year of the ice storm. As we get later in the season if these types of setups keep showing up, someone is going to get an ugly ice storm or two.You could probably wonder a lot of things at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 One has to wonder if this will be the year of the ice storm. As we get later in the season if these types of setups keep showing up, someone is going to get an ugly ice storm or two. ... How apt, just in time for the 20th anniversary of the Ice Winter of '93-'94.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 yes..I edited my post..what do you think about the warm nose being like +0.3-ish...Is that a snow sounding if precip is heavy? I'd say yes with heavy precip. Like most here, I'd be completely satisfied with a front end snow out of this even if it changes to rain..would at least kick off the season nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 you going to wait for euro and euro ens before starting your article? Depends on when Jason want it.....I'd like to at least see the euro but when forecasting that far in advance, it probably doesn't matter that much as it will still be impossible to talk about specifics (ie. how much snow we might get). I'll just be alerting people of a potential threat and possibly offering scenarios though the models have really converged towards a weak low going to the lakes or OH valley region and a big high being in place to provide damming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 You could probably wonder a lot of things at this point. lol good point. Weather is a difficult beast to tackle. That's what makes it so great. Even with all our weather knowledge and equipment, there are still so many unknowns and that is what makes it awesome and frustrating at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Depends on when Jason want it.....I'd like to at least see the euro but when forecasting that far in advance, it probably doesn't matter that much as it will still be impossible to talk about specifics (ie. how much snow we might get). I'll just be alerting people of a potential threat and possibly offering scenarios though the models have really converged towards a weak low going to the lakes or OH valley region and a big high being in place to provide damming. I can't find an analog for this storm..all the ones that came to mind had a ridge out west...that doesn't inspire much confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I can't find an analog for this storm..all the ones that came to mind had a ridge out west...that doesn't inspire much confidence I don't think there is a good analog......there certainly wasn't on the original D+11 supersen. I thought of looking at the D+8 superens mean to see if any of its 10 analogs had a decent snow but right now am too lazy to look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I don't think there is a good analog......there certainly wasn't on the original D+11 supersen. I thought of looking at the D+8 superens mean to see if any of its 10 analogs had a decent snow but right now am too lazy to look it up. Well, I can't look up the analogs for what they entailed, but here's the D+8 superens mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I don't think there is a good analog......there certainly wasn't on the original D+11 supersen. I thought of looking at the D+8 superens mean to see if any of its 10 analogs had a decent snow but right now am too lazy to look it up. I found one that isn't perfect but the best I could find...12/23/98...do you remember this storm?..around 1" for us..more in the burbs... then changed to sleet and freezing rain and was a pretty bad ice storm...setup was kind of similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Well, I can't look up the analogs for what they entailed, but here's the D+8 superens mean: I found one that isn't perfect but the best I could find...12/23/98...do you remember this storm?..around 1" for us..more in the burbs... then changed to sleet and freezing rain and was a pretty bad ice storm...setup was kind of similar ah..it is on your map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Canadian looks delicious: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 ah..it is on your map I'll have to look it up. I don't remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Thats some pretty cold air showing up at 120 in the Plains on the 12z EURO -- -30 850s in MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 If you've got +0.3 showing up on your soundings now, it's most likely sleet. It would need some serious adiabatic cooling to be all snow. At the very least, it's snow pellets and wet snow < 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 euro has a 1040mb high in perfect position...this will be fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 ah..it is on your map Matt, I looked it up. At 500h they match up Ok but at the surface they are pretty different. No big surface high in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 euro has a 1040mb high in perfect position...this will be fun to track I see 1042mb at 144 in S Quebec But its been a LONG time since we have seen one of those there in the right place at the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro is warm too..looks like the old 1, maybe 2 hours of low ratio snow followed by sleet and ice...this could be a warning criteria event for the usual locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Matt, I looked it up. At 500h they match up Ok but at the surface they are pretty different. No big surface high in 2008. It was 1998..I think that is what you meant...The high had moved off to the east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 850s down this way will only support about 0.1-0.2" prior to change over to ice down this way at 150 on the Euro. You guys look better up in DC. Edit: No it's too warm. Looks like a serious ice storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 lol...euro warms pretty quickly...next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The reason the Euro is the way it is, a la warm at 850 is the low it has in E IL at 156, which causing the h85 line to surge N/NW. Surface CAD looks impressive with that textbook ice producing high in S QB. However, hr 162 scours out that as well. I have to favor the GFS/GGEM thus far simply based on synoptic evolution and the realization that with a 1042 high in S Canada we aren't going to have a low surging warmth northward as it heads into W Michigan. Long ways to go, but the Euro's warm up is questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.