usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 so much for clown maps..looks like weatherbell is as bad as the others IAD iadsounding.PNG I've thought the snow maps from Weatherbell had problems....those 800 to 700 temps don't inspire a lot of confidence concerning snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It is still over an inch QPF of snow/sleet yeah.. the 150 map is probably better overall tho misses some. still like a 3-6" event across the area plus crudverbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 This will be a more wet than white system...LOCK it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 This will be a more wet than white system...LOCK it in. Tell us more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 so much for clown maps..looks like weatherbell is as bad as the others IAD iadsounding.PNG odd how those temps in the mid levels cool, then warm, then cool, and then finally warm for good reminds me of the Superbowl 2000 storm imby when I went from sleet to snow depending on the rates, with a mix in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 First look we've seen with a very wet solution. Lotsa flags there. If the euro comes in wetter then some confidence can start to build. imo- the gfs went a little nuts here. I wish it was Saturday already... Def agree... first time we have seen QPF this high as you said and that raises a big red flag. I would like to see the ensembles also support the GFS as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 yeah.. the 150 map is probably better overall tho misses some. still like a 3-6" event across the area plus crudverbatim. Dan S. is not too impressed by the snow potential and thinks the GFS snow and ice is overdone. Still the threat looks high enough to do a post on. I've never seen a storm with this type pattern produce over 5 inches of snow at DC and even then only maybe once or twice. Usually its a quick couple of inches and then sleet ice and rain. For our Winchester guys, it could be a different story. Gosh I'm babbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 wooooo snowmaps gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_57.png Good ahead and use this as the basis for your WaPo update. This is the map i have...those algorithms must miss a warm layer in the mid-levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 so much for clown maps..looks like weatherbell is as bad as the others IAD iadsounding.PNG Not that parsing 1-2C differences is worthwhile at 150hrs, but that's odd that the warm layer pokes its nose up at 800 and 750mb at the 4th time step, then cools down below freezing at the 5th time step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Dan S. is not too impressed by the snow potential and thinks the GFS snow and ice is overdone. Still the threat looks high enough to do a post on. I've never seen a storm with this type pattern produce over 5 inches of snow at DC and even then only maybe once or twice. Usually its a quick couple of inches and then sleet ice and rain. For our Winchester guys, it could be a different story. Gosh I'm babbling. I'm not too impressed either but might as well go with the flow for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 This is the map i have...those algorithms must miss a warm layer in the mid-levels gfs7daysout.png meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 This is the map i have...those algorithms must miss a warm layer in the mid-levels gfs7daysout.png Your map was put out by Ellinwood's company no wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 This is the map i have...those algorithms must miss a warm layer in the mid-levels gfs7daysout.png your map makes no sense either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Dan S. is not too impressed by the snow potential and thinks the GFS snow and ice is overdone. Still the threat looks high enough to do a post on. I've never seen a storm with this type pattern produce over 5 inches of snow at DC and even then only maybe once or twice. Usually its a quick couple of inches and then sleet ice and rain. For our Winchester guys, it could be a different story. Gosh I'm babbling. i think that is what we are all expecting if it happens at all..for many of us that is a success...I know others want all snow events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Your map was put out by Ellinwood's company no wonder. No matter where it comes from. it is most likely a more accurate map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 No matter where it comes from. it is most likely a more accurate map it's definitely screwy.. there should be some snow into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 it's definitely screwy.. there should be some snow into VA No there shouldn't. It's a 40N map. Southern states don't get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 your map makes no sense either How so? it may miss some snow at onset I suppose and It doesn't capture sleet/ice which is absolutely going on at the onset and more so west of DC, but verbatim I dont think that is much snow south of mason/dixon even at onset.. thicknesses are 546-552 in VA as the precip onsets, for what that is worth.. Well no sense in debating over a 7 day gfs run anyway. I think we all agree that an icy mess or quick mix to rain outcome is most favored given the long wave pattern. Folks just west of DC would have a greater chance to get a lot of frozen, even a better chance than I would up here in coastal CT in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 it's definitely screwy.. there should be some snow into VA Does the moisture even get that far North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Does the moisture even get that far North? https://www.google.com/search?q=weather+models&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 https://www.google.com/search?q=weather+models&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari Good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Good one http://instantrimshot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GGEM joins the juicy crew. Pretty similar to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 How so? it may miss some snow at onset I suppose and It doesn't capture sleet/ice which is absolutely going on at the onset and more so west of DC, but verbatim I dont think that is much snow south of mason/dixon even at onset.. thicknesses are 546-552 in VA as the precip onsets, for what that is worth.. Well no sense in debating over a 7 day gfs run anyway. I think we all agree that an icy mess or quick mix to rain outcome is most favored given the long wave pattern. Folks just west of DC would have a greater chance to get a lot of frozen, even a better chance than I would up here in coastal CT in my opinion. at the very least far western burbs would get pummeled according to the model...It is a poor map and of little use..we know our backyard pretty well and the map is absolutely unsupported by soundings... EDIT - maybe your map is mostly right...I'd imagine a temp close to 0 between 700 and 850 with heavy precip would be snow, but maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Just checked soundings for jyo...gfs is 90%+ sleet for here...concrete jungle on the horizon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 i think that is what we are all expecting if it happens at all..for many of us that is a success...I know others want all snow events... I'm one who doesn't want an all snow event. I want ice on the trees and snow. Would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'm one who doesn't want an all snow event. I want ice on the trees and snow. Would be awesome! You might be alone with that one buddy. Well, there's professional forecaster Arlwx...she doesn't want all snow either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Just checked soundings for jyo...gfs is 90%+ sleet for here...concrete jungle on the horizon yeah..I just looked at JYO and OKV...some snow and lots of sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Well, best thing to take away at 150 hours is that there is a good slug of precip and it appears to be cold enough for frozen precip of some sort for a while. We all know the drill in models trying to forecast CAD and also sometimes seeing more or less warming than actually occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Just checked soundings for jyo...gfs is 90%+ sleet for here...concrete jungle on the horizon yeah, sounding for westminster would be about the same... 850 is a torch by hr 162 tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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