snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 True, but looks like anything before 153 is snow... 153 is borderline snow/sleet I think super wet is not necessarily good for us....but yeah...would be a big event and a mess, especially for western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 True, but looks like anything before 153 is snow... 153 is borderline snow/sleet and 159 would be rain.... but its like drizzle/light rain EDIT: Even 156 is pushing rain in city proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yes for the city changes quicker. NW burbs locked into cold through 156. Heavy front end thump for the cities. Sure you guys won't mind that. I'm curious to see soundings above 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It is ridiculously wet...but changes over sooner... I'll let you guys see the panels 1st instead of doing more play by play.. I'm not sure that's good but I'd worry about freezing rain even in the city after the changeover given where that high was located. We'll have to warm from the east at the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 QPF is astronomical...1.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Nasty ice for ROA-LYH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'm curious to see soundings above 850mb DCA supports snow till 152... then goes to sleet/frz rain... then rain by 156/157 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Pretty nice spot for a 1035-40hp. Front end thump is still on the table. I'm not worried about specific details irt changeover/sleet/rain etc. Another run and we're still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'll say it now.. but I likely will have to say it in the future. DON'T focus on the 850 temps, look to 750-800mb temps to find that warm layer. If you can find maps of 700-850mb thickness, generally below 154dm is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'm not sure that's good but I'd worry about freezing rain even in the city after the changeover given where that high was located. We'll have to warm from the east at the low levels. It is a big snowstorm for Skyline Drive,.,..might have to take a drive out there if it holds as we get closer in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'll say it now.. but I likely will have to say it in the future. DON'T focus on the 850 temps, look to 750-800mb temps to find that warm layer. If you can find maps of 700-850mb thickness, generally below 154dm is all snow. Very true, and thats why I like the soundings as the GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'll say it now.. but I likely will have to say it in the future. DON'T focus on the 850 temps, look to 750-800mb temps to find that warm layer. If you can find maps of 700-850mb thickness, generally below 154dm is all snow. everyone has been hammering that point home... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It is a big snowstorm for Skyline Drive,.,..might have to take a drive out there if it holds as we get closer in Was just about to say, we may need to road trip. QPF looks overdone. Worrying a bit about the quicker warmer creep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The 24 hr snowfall accum map from Raleigh is kind of ridiculous (at hr 156) Have to think the QPF is overdone on this run as others have said in here, will have to see what the ensembles do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The 24 hr snowfall accum map from Raleigh is kind of ridiculous (at hr 156) Have to think the QPF is overdone on this run as others have said in here, will have to see what the ensembles do Oh post it! You know you want too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Was just about to say, we may need to road trip. QPF looks overdone. Worrying a bit about the quicker warmer creep. I think aloft that probably a pretty good bet, at the surface maybe not though the water temps on the bay and ocean are still pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Oh post it! You know you want too! I don't think I am allowed to cause its part of a pay thing now. But its basically 6-8" of snow in DCA and nearing 15" as you head out to MRB/Winchester area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I don't think I am allowed to cause its part of a pay thing now. But its basically 6-8" of snow in DCA and nearing 15" as you head out to MRB/Winchester area. wooooo snowmaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think aloft that probably a pretty good bet, at the surface maybe not though the water temps on the bay and ocean are still pretty warm. Good ahead and use this as the basis for your WaPo update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Oh clown maps have I missed you and your hopeful colors... but deep down I know that at least half of you is ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 wooooo snowmaps gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_57.png I would give Randy's left acorn for that snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 wooooo snowmaps gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_57.png Matt's hurtin' on that map. We'll enjoy our extra snow. Matt, road trip to my house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 so much for clown maps..looks like weatherbell is as bad as the others IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Just pulled up the GFS p-type here at work via the AccuWx model service. It's a ice storm in the heaviest snowfall areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 so much for clown maps..looks like weatherbell is as bad as the others IAD iadsounding.PNG i think they are all the same other than resolution. but they will continue to suck overall at least in changeover type snows. which is pretty much everything here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 good post....We are probably screwed for a while if/when the EPO relaxes....a lot of cold air locked up in Canada and the west, and a sharp gradient pattern from N to S...probably a good SWFE pattern...I'm still very very cautiously optimistic about a cold/snowy regime from just after Christmas through about 1/10 I wonder about the timing of that though coming much closer to your end date if we are to believe the tropical forcing state is being realized properly by the models now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 i think they are all the same other than resolution. but they will continue to suck overall at least in changeover type snows. which is pretty much everything here... It is still over an inch QPF of snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I haven't looked at the new runs for next Sun-Mon, but yesterday while at work I saw the broad, strong, deep SW flow aloft that as you all noted would no doubt lead to an elevated warm layer. It's definitely got that mix to freezing rain look, considering the strength of the low level high and CAD wedge, something we haven't seen in a long time, but certainly would make since given (1) the availability of arctic air to our north which continues to be re-enforced, and (2) the lack of blocking over the northern Atlantic which would allow for a more confluent, frontogenetic look at mid levels and thus deeper cold (sub 0C) air. As Wes and others have noted, model soundings are the way to go when attempting to diagnose where exactly that elevated warm layer will be. However, this far out, I like to look at critical 850-700 mb thicknesses, since I can view it over an area rather than at a point (as with a sounding). For the most part any 850-700 mb thicknesses below 1540m is good enough for snow, i.e. approximate to the layer average temperature below 0C. 850-700 mb thicknesses bove 1550 m would favor rain or freezing rain depending on the surface temp. In between 1540 and 1550 m is where it gets messy, though typically in such events with mid level SW flow aloft extending well to our north (i.e. no confluence or frontogenesis over the northeast), we don't stay there very long. We may start out at snow/sleet, but then switch to fzra or rain at some point -- because we just don't have the frontogenesis above 850mb to our north to keep that layer cold. Either way, I'd be excited just to have an event. An event that looks like this one used to happen with more regularity in the '80s and '90s around here...just not lately. Again, it has everything to do with the fact that, for a change, we actually have bona-fide arctic air to work with not too far north of us. it sure would be nice if NCEP maps had a 1540 thickness line on their maps instead of lines at 1520 and 1560; you can't tell where the 1540 thickness line is with that spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I wonder about the timing of that though coming much closer to your end date if we are to believe the tropical forcing state is being realized properly by the models now? I like the 1/5-1/10 period the most of that window, so makes sense..it is all mostly guesswork for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 It is still over an inch QPF of snow/sleet First look we've seen with a very wet solution. Lotsa flags there. If the euro comes in wetter then some confidence can start to build. imo- the gfs went a little nuts here. I wish it was Saturday already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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