December and a Hint of January Pattern Discussion

[snow.]

euro is a nice thump...but quicker changeover...still probably 3-4" snow....

[Heisy]

The 00z EURO 240 hours looks like it would repeat it as well. 

[mitchnick]

euro is a nice thump...but quicker changeover...still probably 3-4" snow....

Wunderground maps have 4-6" with more to the SW in the mts

[WinterWxLuvr]

I predict at least 30 posts today telling us that it 1) won't snow 2) might snow a little but rapidly changes to rain 3) snows a little here but don't enjoy it because it gives more snow to somebody north of us 4) snows 4" covers that with a thick layer of ice but we still shouldn't enjoy it and should sit here waiting on the perfect storm.

[arlwx]

^Guys,

 

^{Just wait until February.}

 

^{I would be surprised if DCA got anything significant from this event (other than routine ice patches on the roads).}

 

^{For DCA, it typically is cold or wet but not both during winter (except during February).}

 

^{2009-2010?  Maybe a rerun when your neighbor's grandkids are shoveling snow.}

[aldie 22]

I predict at least 30 posts today telling us that it 1) won't snow 2) might snow a little but rapidly changes to rain 3) snows a little here but don't enjoy it because it gives more snow to somebody north of us 4) snows 4" covers that with a thick layer of ice but we still shouldn't enjoy it and should sit here waiting on the perfect storm.

The ones I'm waiting for are when there is a run or two...and there will be...that show mostly rain and even though we are 5-6 days out that will be the final solution or dagger...but the ones showing frozen are always wrong...happens every threat

[needbiggerboat]

I predict at least 30 posts today telling us that it 1) won't snow 2) might snow a little but rapidly changes to rain 3) snows a little here but don't enjoy it because it gives more snow to somebody north of us 4) snows 4" covers that with a thick layer of ice but we still shouldn't enjoy it and should sit here waiting on the perfect storm.

Looks like you have your first, in between this and leesburg's post.

The primary issue is that this is all computer simulation at this point. Can you post the latest 7 or 8 day 500 mb verifications for the gfs and euro?

[WxUSAF]

6z GFS doesn't look quite as fun as 0z.  Precip comes in 2 waves, first is snow (2-4"?) and then the 2nd wave looks like cold rain as temps warm up into the mid 30s on Monday.  OH Valley low is stronger on this run, which erodes the CAD more efficiently.  I still think we'd all take this with no qualms.  

[stormtracker]

^Guys,

^{Just wait until February.}

^{I would be surprised if DCA got anything significant from this event (other than routine ice patches on the roads).}

^{For DCA, it typically is cold or wet but not both during winter (except during February).}

^{2009-2010? Maybe a rerun when your neighbor's grandkids are shoveling snow.}

Winterwxlvr, here's the first!

[mappy]

6z GFS doesn't look quite as fun as 0z.  Precip comes in 2 waves, first is snow (2-4"?) and then the 2nd wave looks like cold rain as temps warm up into the mid 30s on Monday.  OH Valley low is stronger on this run, which erodes the CAD more efficiently.  I still think we'd all take this with no qualms.  

 

oh goodie, snow with rain to wash it all away

[WinterWxLuvr]

Looks like you have your first, in between this and leesburg's post.

The primary issue is that this is all computer simulation at this point. Can you post the latest 7 or 8 day 500 mb verifications for the gfs and euro?

I wouldn't even know where to find that stuff.  You, I, and most everyone else here realizes that a 6 day forecast can go a lot of different ways in the end.  I just don't see why some feel the need to post the way they do.  You're right, it didn't take long to get my first one.  I'm sure the number will rise exponentially as we approach the middle of the week.

[clueless]

Let''s book the ice storm. We are due.

[aldie 22]

I wouldn't even know where to find that stuff.  You, I, and most everyone else here realizes that a 6 day forecast can go a lot of different ways in the end.  I just don't see why some feel the need to post the way they do.  You're right, it didn't take long to get my first one.  I'm sure the number will rise exponentially as we approach the middle of the week.

For our area it is wise to be skeptical but this far out it seems odd to think any one solution is more correct than another. I said yesterday that if this thing happens as modeled it would be a big win for the models....the changes that have happened overnight show that the final solution has in no way shown itself...good bad or otherwise

[H2O]

6z GFS doesn't look quite as fun as 0z.  Precip comes in 2 waves, first is snow (2-4"?) and then the 2nd wave looks like cold rain as temps warm up into the mid 30s on Monday.  OH Valley low is stronger on this run, which erodes the CAD more efficiently.  I still think we'd all take this with no qualms.  

 

Just one of many solutions to be seen every 6 hours

[WxUSAF]

Just one of many solutions to be seen every 6 hours

Pretty much.  Comforting at least that (so far) every run gives us a respectable amount of frozen precip to start at least (I probably just jinxed 12z).  

[snowdude]

DT was mentioning snow to ice even along the lower maryland eastern shore and I'm not sure what he's seeing. I'm new to living here in Salisbury and I know it can snow and ice but this storm looks like mainly rain here? Or am I missing something? It's easier to see the CAD for DC and all but we are much closer to the ocean here and honestly I'm not sure 100% sure of the CAD impacts here in Salisbury.

[usedtobe]

Pretty much.  Comforting at least that (so far) every run gives us a respectable amount of frozen precip to start at least (I probably just jinxed 12z).  

As long as they keep the big high in place as the storm comes in,  I think some frozen precip is a good bet and the models have been pretty consistent doing that.  At 174 hrs when the euro has the 850 temps above freezing it still keeps the surface temps below freezing.  If the distinct coastal trough develops as the euro has been forecasting, the surface temps I think would be slow to warm across the area.  I expect to be writing an article on the threat tomorrow. 

[North Balti Zen]

As long as they keep the big high in place as the storm comes in,  I think some frozen precip is a good bet and the models have been pretty consistent doing that.  At 174 hrs when the euro has the 850 temps above freezing it still keeps the surface temps below freezing.  If the distinct coastal trough develops as the euro has been forecasting, the surface temps I think would be slow to warm across the area.  I expect to be writing an article on the threat tomorrow. 

hmmm, but arlwx already canceled this one. Who to believe, who to believe...

[H2O]

As long as they keep the big high in place as the storm comes in,  I think some frozen precip is a good bet and the models have been pretty consistent doing that.  At 174 hrs when the euro has the 850 temps above freezing it still keeps the surface temps below freezing.  If the distinct coastal trough develops as the euro has been forecasting, the surface temps I think would be slow to warm across the area.  I expect to be writing an article on the threat tomorrow. 

 

Good stuff, Wes.  Hopefully it will become more clear soon and your article will basically write itself.

[usedtobe]

Good stuff, Wes.  Hopefully it will become more clear soon and your article will basically write itself.

I hope things become clearer and that the high still is there tomorrow.    If so, the article will be fairly easy to write.

[Eskimo Joe]

Only 27 runs to go before onset of the potential event...

27 runs until 35 and rain?

[DCAlexandria]

Would the distinct low not make temps start crashing back down at some point?

[yoda]

27 runs until 35 and rain?

26 runs till you post something useful?

I mean even Wes agrees for potential for frozen and why not you once again?  You need to work on your trolling

[usedtobe]

Would the distinct low not make temps start crashing back down at some point?

The little spot low off the carolinas would not.  All it does is help lock in the damming.  the lowest pressure going to the lakes means that at some level we'll warm providing that solution is correct which seems like a pretty reasonable idea giving the pattern. 

[usedtobe]

DT was mentioning snow to ice even along the lower maryland eastern shore and I'm not sure what he's seeing. I'm new to living here in Salisbury and I know it can snow and ice but this storm looks like mainly rain here? Or am I missing something? It's easier to see the CAD for DC and all but we are much closer to the ocean here and honestly I'm not sure 100% sure of the CAD impacts here in Salisbury.

 

I would think you could start as a brief period of snow but any easterly component would bring in ocean air to cause you to turn over to rain pretty quickly though I have to admit I haven't looked at soundings and am just basing my thoughts on the overall pattern.  DT has probably looked closer at it than I have. 

[stormtracker]

27 runs until 35 and rain?

Tired

[aldie 22]

Tired

Tantrum? Poor attempt at humor? Trying to be disruptive? All three? Trying too hard

[HM]

Hard to go against the regulars here and obviously their expectations are the correct way to go. I'll echo the concerns about warming above 850mb. We'll need good mid level frontogen to keep things cool over the area. As we get closer, models will hone-in on that and begin focusing QPF on these areas.

[stormtracker]

Tantrum? Poor attempt at humor? Trying to be disruptive? All three? Trying too hard

I don't know, but my trigger finger is gettin' itchy.  

[mitchnick]

I don't know, but my trigger finger is gettin' itchy.  

that's not the same finger you use for your nose is it?