mappy Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Lol i was just about to post that. I was in the jackpot in 2002, i think i got almost 10" from that storm. Then we root for a 12/5/02 redux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I was in SBY and even I got snow that day silly, yoda. Failed, my memory did. Disturbing, this was But thanks guys. Looks very nice. Good analog then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Lol i was just about to post that. I was in the jackpot in 2002, i think i got almost 10" from that storm. Very cold storm too. Just about the perfect SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Then we root for a 12/5/02 redux! Very cold storm too. Just about the perfect SECS. It was a great storm, if we could get anything close to that it would be an amazing start to the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It was a great storm, if we could get anything close to that it would be an amazing start to the winter. Let's just pray that if we do get something it's not the beginning of the end like Dec. 5th 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 December 5th, 2002 Snow-05Dec02.png That was my first snow day of my then, young teaching career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Let's just pray that if we do get something it's not the beginning of the end like Dec. 5th 2007. If we could get that type of storm, plus 5 or 6 nickel and dime storms i would be happy with this winter. Oh and i would not mind one legit ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 I've been keeping an eye on the ensemble teleconnection indicies. Some promising trends the last 2 days. The potential AO spike is now getting tempered, every day has more ens members showing a -nao and now a +pna has some agreement. There is still a lot of spread and uncertainty but if the latest trends keeps happening we might be in for a classic type of period in the east. One we haven't seen in December for a good bit. Sure is nice going into Dec with real optimism and not weenie hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 hopefully we get some snow on the 5th then it torches so matt can verify in dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 hopefully we get some snow on the 5th then it torches so matt can verify in dec. A lot of folks went warm in Dec and now fights are breaking out in the main forum with the arctic hounds descending. We will likely have a warm spell in Dec but there is a fair chance that the - departures that could potentially build the first couple weeks may prove too much to overcome. Long ways to go but I think many of the same folks that went warm would say something different had the first forecast not been made. Not poking at matt in any way. There's been a lot of universal warm talk from a lot of folks. Now glimmers of hope are showing up with blocking. If we end up with a -ao on average for the month then more fights are going to break out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 A lot of folks went warm in Dec and now fights are breaking out in the main forum with the arctic hounds descending. We will likely have a warm spell in Dec but there is a fair chance that the - departures that could potentially build the first couple weeks may prove too much to overcome. Long ways to go but I think many of the same folks that went warm would say something different had the first forecast not been made. Not poking at matt in any way. There's been a lot of universal warm talk from a lot of folks. Now glimmers of hope are showing up with blocking. If we end up with a -ao on average for the month then more fights are going to break out. I think the winter still is likely to be warm if the AO is positive but the Pacific can make a huge difference. My interest is doing more than 2 week forecast has waned as too many people take stuff way too serious and some like to tear any forecasts down. PLus in terms of skill< I don't think I have any except for those years like 2009-2010 when multiple signal point one way. This year, even the AO signals have been mixed. Personally, I don't understand the forcing of the EPO to know exactly what drives it or how long it will stay negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 I think the winter still is likely to be warm if the AO is positive but the Pacific can make a huge difference. My interest is doing more than 2 week forecast has waned as too many people take stuff way too serious and some like to tear any forecasts down. PLus in terms of skill< I don't think I have any except for those years like 2009-2010 when multiple signal point one way. This year, even the AO signals have been mixed. Personally, I don't understand the forcing of the EPO to know exactly what drives it or how long it will stay negative. Seasonal forecasting is muddy. I've seen many folks be right for the wrong reasons but claim victory. I always think to myself if the most advanced computers and weather models lose skill at short range then consistently nailing a 3 month lead carries some pretty low odds. Certain ninos and ninas are much easier to set expectations though. This year has little precedence in that part of the equation. I never look past a month and even then. One, i don't have the knowledge to decipher the seemingly endless variables and two, I'm not motivated to gain the knowledge. I simply like looking for potential and when there appears to be none then I try to figure out what needs to change and look for early clues. Pretty simple approach. And it's fun. I totally agree on the AO. I've buried my head in those #'s plenty. What's been happening lately is literally stealing time imo. Unexpected results in an expected pattern. One encouraging sign is when the ao relaxes the coldest air in the NH is spinning around on our side of the globe. That's a new phenomenon compared to recent years. There's no reason to think it won't continue even if delivery isn't there. When delivery is there, cold shots can overperform even if they are transient. Zero complaints from me. I think the state of the AO is more of a harbinger in Dec than in Nov. If we end up with a near neutral AO for the month then all bets are off. I'm sure plenty of people will disagree with that statement but it's my humble opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Very cold storm too. Just about the perfect SECS. Indeed, precip type was never an issue and it was the first big snow since that awful 01-02 winter and since I really started following weather. The moment I looked out the window when I woke up very early that morning was surreal, and in the end we received 8", which was amazing for early December. Even better, we had single digit temps two nights later, the snow cover lasted for a while, and we got a nice zr storm the next week. I could tell we had a great winter coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 welp, there it is http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=300ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M and the surface is cold enough too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=300ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_300_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 welp, there it is http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=300ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M and the surface is cold enough too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=300ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_300_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I actually have moderately good feelings regarding snow and the time ahead. I'm not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 welp, there it is http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=300ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_300_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M and the surface is cold enough too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=300ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_300_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M It almost take an ideal track for us,,,..houston to nashville to hatteras...a little further south would be ideal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I actually have moderately good feelings regarding snow and the time ahead. I'm not sure why. I like the time period as well... it seems that things are falling into place on the weenie rang of the models. Plus Bob's discussions give me hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Plus Bob's discussions give me hope I'm very skilled at pointing out the good and completely omitting the bad. Interesting pac setup....Rex or T-Rex? I'm feeling really good about early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Start a thread. ok, now what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 ok, now what? Start quilting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I'm very skilled at pointing out the good and completely omitting the bad. Interesting pac setup....Rex or T-Rex? trex.JPG I'm feeling really good about early Dec. I can't tell...is that for December 5, Bob?Either way...nice setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I can't tell...is that for December 5, Bob? Either way...what a setup. Can you explain why it's a good setup? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Can you explain why it's a good setup? Thanks in advance. I should probably leave it to the folks who know better to explain it. To me, it looks like the low south of Alaska pumps up the ridge in the West, which helps usher in cold air, which is coming from a really cold source region. Plus, the flow is split (right?), which means that we can tap into more southern moisture. As good a look as we've seen in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I should probably leave it to the folks who know better to explain it. To me, it looks like the low south of Alaska pumps up the ridge in the West, which helps usher in cold air, which is coming from a really cold source region. Plus, the flow is split (right?), which means that we can tap into more southern moisture. As good a look as we've seen in some time. With the one little thorn that it's two weeks in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I should probably leave it to the folks who know better to explain it. To me, it looks like the low south of Alaska pumps up the ridge in the West, which helps usher in cold air, which is coming from a really cold source region. Plus, the flow is split (right?), which means that we can tap into more southern moisture. As good a look as we've seen in some time. Thanks! I think I can make out the split flow. Is it where the northern stream and southern stream get broken up by that vort (?) off the coast of CA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 With the one little thorn that it's two weeks in the future. Sure. But it's a pattern, rather than a specific event, so the confidence can be just a little higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Thanks! I think I can make out the split flow. Is it where the northern stream and southern stream get broken up by that vort (?) off the coast of CA?From what I know, I think that's right. And look at how that big ridge reaches way up into the higher latitudes - that's pretty impressive. If we can get the Atlantic to cooperate a bit, then we have a real shot at something in this period.I'm open to be corrected or expanded upon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Thanks! I think I can make out the split flow. Is it where the northern stream and southern stream get broken up by that vort (?) off the coast of CA? That panel I posted is just a snapshot in time so keep that in mind. If you run the full 500 vort loop it shows a much better picture of the evolution. We've been plagued with Pac zonal flow at times recently. Especially in Dec. When the isobars are all lined up and pretty into the west coast it floods the conus with pacific air. We do terrible at our latitude with that setup. Too warm. The 18z gfs is showing a major road block. Our source region is the arctic. And would imply an active northern stream to some extent. It's a bit extreme but definitely shows how the Pac can cooperate to deliver cold even when our classic blocking features aren't really there. Split flow and active southern stream are 2 different things. You need to have energy slipping underneath a pacific ridge. The panel I posted is not the best example but verbatim interpretation at long leads isn't the way to go anyway. The short version is just hoping a Pac zonal roadblock happens and then letting the details shake out at medium to short leads. If the 18z gfs verified in some fashion or another then we won't be bored. We'll at least be cold enough for snow. That's more than half the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Sure. But it's a pattern, rather than a specific event, so the confidence can be just a little higher. Just a little. We see these "modeled" patterns flip and flop at those ranges often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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