Huffwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'm 100% invested. This is the most important storm of the year for me. Did I hear a jingling of bells or the Tracker bus keys?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Did I hear a jingling of bells or the Tracker bus keys?? Keys are in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 With the dreaded se ridge and nasty se winds we could be in for our first thunderice event. I'm skerrd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Looks like the dreaded southeast ridge is rearing it's ugly head again on this one. Not only that, but the ocean temps are close to 50 degrees and the antecedent high pressure is not in a favorable place. Instead of solid northeast winds, it's a nasty southeast wind. Don't see much to hope for with this so called "storm" later in the week. Do you ever post anything good? I guess we should just give up then... Ellinwood Jr has spoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ice usually doesn't work around here so it is really hard to forecast it. I think it is easier to forecast snow, actually. This storm will likely be wet snow, sleet, or mostly rain, IMO. Little or no ZR anywhere near the cities. Won't stop the panics, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ice usually doesn't work around here so it is really hard to forecast it. I think it is easier to forecast snow, actually. This storm will likely be wet snow, sleet, or mostly rain, IMO. Little or no ZR anywhere near the cities. Won't stop the panics, though. I could see a driveway or a tree branch getting dme ice but you're right it just seems like ever since that mixing bowl nightmare the forecast of ice far out paces the reality of ice. I'm all in for sleet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Keys are in hand. That bus is in such bad shape it will take you longer than 7 days to get it working. I hope you have a back up plan or we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That bus is in such bad shape it will take you longer than 7 days to get it working. I hope you have a back up plan or we are screwed. forget it....reverse doesn't work either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ice is rarely a big deal. If the event is zr from onset with temps in the low to mid 20's then I'll be concerned. Snow to zr only makes things.pretty and never causes issues on the roads. I suppose in a perfect sn to zr setup it could take a limb down on a powerline but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GFS EDIT for content - nice run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The 0z GFS looks epic at least at the beginning of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That H in the Central Plains is really exerting its influence at 150 and oh my... that looks like all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That H in the Central Plains is really exerting its influence at 150 and oh my... that looks like all snow at 150hrs, perfect High Pressure ridge over AK that's a good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Hard to believe the 588DM is over Miami with that surface setup. 00z GFS has some CAD, but we loose it and probably change to drizzle after about 12 hrs. Probably because mid and upper winds shift to west instead of south and south is actually better for keeping the CAD locked in. West will just push it out to sea and replace it with downsloped already warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That damn primary low over PA floods everyone with warm air, text-book thread the needle event on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That damn primary low over PA floods everyone with warm air, text-book thread the needle event on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Hard to believe the 588DM is over Miami with that surface setup. 00z GFS has some CAD, but we loose it and probably change to drizzle after about 12 hrs. Probably because mid and upper winds shift to west instead of south and south is actually better for keeping the CAD locked in. West will just push it out to sea and replace it with downsloped already warm air. That damn primary low over PA floods everyone with warm air, text-book thread the needle event on the GFS. it is changing over...I don't think anyone things we are getting an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Hard to believe the 588DM is over Miami with that surface setup. 00z GFS has some CAD, but we loose it and probably change to drizzle after about 12 hrs. Probably because mid and upper winds shift to west instead of south and south is actually better for keeping the CAD locked in. West will just push it out to sea and replace it with downsloped already warm air. Not sure what run you are viewing but that is not what the 00Z GFS projects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 it is changing over...I don't think anyone things we are getting an all snow event By that time most of the moisture is switched off though... I mean yeah, we could see some drizzle, but most precip looks frozen to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 My situation is even more hopeless than environs further west. I guess one should not expect an all-snow event and many feel comfortable with calling December snow a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 it is changing over...I don't think anyone things we are getting an all snow event A lot of folks forgot how to read models over the summer or never learned in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 My situation is even more hopeless than environs further west. I guess one should not expect an all-snow event and many feel comfortable with calling December snow a bonus. Go to the New Jersey thread, wherever that is these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 By that time most of the moisture is switched off though... I mean yeah, we could see some drizzle, but most precip looks frozen to me as wes mentioned, I think we have to worry about an inversion layer.....but this run is colder and wetter than the last one...it is indisputably better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 There are some odd posts tonight. We don't lose 850's until basically drizzle-mist. It's a solid hit. Surface is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Still in the upper 20s NW of I95 at 177 hrs according to instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 as wes mentioned, I think we have to worry about an inversion layer.....but this run is colder and wetter than the last one...it is indisputably better Those are the mid levels correct?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 There is no pronounced surface low and a retreating high. Heights and temps won't crash. But that doesn't matter because plenty of precip overruns the cold dome before thermals go to sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 as wes mentioned, I think we have to worry about an inversion layer.....but this run is colder and wetter than the last one...it is indisputably better True and agree... I dont mind sleet, was just saying that its frozen precip for this run -- be it sleet, freezing rain, or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 There are some odd posts tonight. We don't lose 850's until basically drizzle-mist. It's a solid hit. Surface is money. I can't figure some people out here sometimes. Anyway, this run is about the best thing we can hope for. It's plenty wet and cold enough for fun in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Those are the mid levels correct?. 800mb-700mb..I'll look at soundings...maybe I am being too dour and we can get 90% snow....I am just assuming we will mix here in the city...when I say changeover it could mean sleet or zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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