Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 When was the last time we had such a good potential over running event?I'm thinking 2003 or 2004 but I could definitely be wrong.At this range? Last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 At this range? Last winter. Seriously, what are your thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 At this range? Last winter. Very funny. Now I am depressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Seriously, what are your thoughts on this? We won't know until it's in nam range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Seriously, what are your thoughts on this? I'm not too invested yet. Let's see how it looks in 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 We won't know until it's in nam range.These days we don't even know in RAP range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 We won't know until it's in nam range. Probably RGEM range. Yoda already getting warmed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 These days we don't even know in RAP range. We would probably still blow it using ncar reanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Probably RGEM range. Yoda already getting warmed up. That's Mitchnick's duty. I handle the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Prolonged ice is one of those things that is really hard to get an area wide event in this area. It's always a changeover or screwzone of rain. Right now I'm leaning towards all rain with outside chance of ice on the Sunday push with HP to the N-NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That's Mitchnick's duty. I handle the GGEM somebody call me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That's Mitchnick's duty. I handle the GGEM Sorry Yoda. Had my Canadians mixed up. I do worry though. Mitch could get a RGEM forecast mixed up with the CFSv2 and we get an 850 and precip prog for the 4th of July instead of Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 personally, I'm just happy to see a boundary layer below freezing on the models it's been nearly impossible to get to freezing, let alone below it, for the past 3 winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Prolonged ice is one of those things that is really hard to get an area wide event in this area. It's always a changeover or screwzone of rain. Right now I'm leaning towards all rain with outside chance of ice on the Sunday push with HP to the N-NE. Maybe i have been drinking to much after the Ravens win this weekend, but are you saying this will be all rain and no frozen?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Sorry Yoda. Had my Canadians mixed up. I do worry though. Mitch could get a RGEM forecast mixed up with the CFSv2 and we get an 850 and precip prog for the 4th of July instead of Sunday. thanks, you just mentioned RGEM and CFS2 in the same sentence....now I got a mess to clean up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Maybe i have been drinking to much after the Ravens win this weekend, but are you saying this will be all rain and no frozen?. like you, I don't think he's saying anything really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Maybe i have been drinking to much after the Ravens win this weekend, but are you saying this will be all rain and no frozen?. Ice is hard. (no pun intended). I won't take the hammer and nail out of the toolbox till at least Thursday, but in rain vs. other p-types, rain is always the better bet. A lesson everyone here has learned multiple times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ice is hard. (no pun intended). I won't take the hammer and nail out of the toolbox till at least Thursday, but in rain vs. other p-types, rain is always the better bet. A lesson everyone here has learned multiple times.It never stops the OMGice talk tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 For fun the JMA @ 144 looks like its headed towards a pretty sweet EURO-like solution. The shortwave in the Southwest is potent Ji would be proud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 For fun the JMA @ 144 looks like its headed towards a pretty sweet EURO-like solution. The shortwave in the Southwest is potent Ji would be proud boom.gif And the JMA and the Korean are JB's new go to models so we look all set for a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Ice is hard. (no pun intended). I won't take the hammer and nail out of the toolbox till at least Thursday, but in rain vs. other p-types, rain is always the better bet. A lesson everyone here has learned multiple times. I know ice storms are tough here, but i will bet with you right now that we will have at least some frozen and it will not be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Prolonged ice is one of those things that is really hard to get an area wide event in this area. It's always a changeover or screwzone of rain. Right now I'm leaning towards all rain with outside chance of ice on the Sunday push with HP to the N-NE. "this area" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Maybe I have been drinking to much after the Ravens win this weekend.... ... I will bet with you right now that we will have at least some frozen and it will not be all rain.Be careful with your drunken promises... Though, your right in it likely won't be all liquid for everyone, as I've said before, the Sunday wave is the best shot for frozen but too early to nail down details. "this area" Oh ok... got me there. Though, I'll take my KU deform bands over being in a CADitch any year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I know ice storms are tough here, but i will bet with you right now that we will have at least some frozen and it will not be all rain. It is way too far out for much confidence, but I would lean toward some frozen as well..at least for some of the CWA......I doubt we see an all rain event....of course i think the chances of an all snow event are pretty low too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 So far out...if this event happens seems like a nice win for the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It is way too far out for much confidence, but I would lean toward some frozen as well..at least for some of the CWA......I doubt we see an all rain event....of course i think the chances of an all snow event are pretty low too... I sound like a broken record, but let's get an "event" first, then we can hope for frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 So far out...if this event happens seems like a nice win for the models Yes it would be. Seems like it's been on the gfs forever in some form or fashion even if it is now a bit earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Looks like the dreaded southeast ridge is rearing it's ugly head again on this one. Not only that, but the ocean temps are close to 50 degrees and the antecedent high pressure is not in a favorable place. Instead of solid northeast winds, it's a nasty southeast wind. Don't see much to hope for with this so called "storm" later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'm not too invested yet. Let's see how it looks in 24-48 hours. I'm 100% invested. This is the most important storm of the year for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I know ice storms are tough here, but i will bet with you right now that we will have at least some frozen and it will not be all rain. A true ice storm is hard to get along and east of 95. I mean, it's hyped a lot and regardless of what anybody says, I was genuinely spooked by it when I owned a house in HGR (above line powerlines and lots of trees) and my job involved me going to different sites around the region daily. But now, I'm all for it. I hope we get an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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