December and a Hint of January Pattern Discussion

[Heisy]

Surface is still cold, this will be an annoying storm to forecast because it will all be about timing...Looks like a legit threat though for sure. 

[usedtobe]

which is why, even though some scoff at me, I like to look at the 1000-500 thickness when soundings unavailable

if it is at or below 5400, you (OK, not "you", but the average snow weenie!) can be pretty confident it's snow

I must have looked at the control ens instead of the ens mean, the latter does not really support the euro but does have lower pressure over the lakes than over Maine. 

[Amped]

 

 

H2 jet streak looks similar to the ice storms mentioned in KU.

[Heisy]

Doesn't look good though. Troff is less strung out and further west. Should there be an actual decent shortwave with this we will change to rain. It may show a nice thump first.

 

The trough was way out west on the EURO as well. This is an overrunning storm, all the frozen precip will be from the overrunning moisture, not the immediate LP. 

[usedtobe]

The GFS sure has trended towards the Euro though the high is not as strong nor is the low as far north but it certainly has shifted towards that solution.  Still would give us winter weather before a changeover.

[WinterWxLuvr]

We quickly go above 0c at 850. Cad still locked in judging buy the surface high.

Somewhere in the vicinity of a half inch of precip falls before they do. Then we never do go above freezing at the surface.

As modeled by the current GFS this would be a great winter event. I'd be thrilled to have it just as modeled.

[Bob Chill]

You won't hear me complain if the main feature is the strength and placement of the hp is the only thing to worry about. The event has never been clean so all snow was never really an option. How much wintry goodness we get before the switch is almost always a very short lead issue. Yay us! And I'm hugging the euro. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

You won't hear me complain if the main feature is the strength and placement of the hp is the only thing to worry about. The event has never been clean so all snow was never really an option. How much wintry goodness we get before the switch is almost always a very short lead issue. Yay us! And I'm hugging the euro.

And don't forget the very real truth that cad ends up colder than modeled many times.

[Bob Chill]

And don't forget the very real truth that cad ends up colder than modeled many times.

 

GFS high res temp maps show me at 27 and you at 24 at onset. You're 27 and I'm 31 @ hr 186. Pretty fun to think about. 

[Heisy]

I guess verbatim the GFS is a pretty major ice event? 

[Bob Chill]

I guess verbatim the GFS is a pretty major ice event? 

 

I suppose to usual suspects to the NW. We don't do ice well near the cities. 2" of snow with a 1/4" crust would be pretty awesome though. 

[Bob Chill]

GFS says keep your seatbelt fastened for another possible event on the 12-13th. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS high res temp maps show me at 27 and you at 24 at onset. You're 27 and I'm 31 @ hr 186. Pretty fun to think about.

I'd love 3 inches of snow, 1/2 inch of sleet and 1/4 ice followed by the ice box. Had just about exactly that in Jan of 09. You could walk across the yard and not leave a footprint. All the houses at night looked like they were sitting in the middle of a lake.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I suppose to usual suspects to the NW. We don't do ice well near the cities. 2" of snow with a 1/4" crust would be pretty awesome though.

LOL, we must be on the same wavelength.

[aldie 22]

VDII on the way only it's December

[snow.]

I guess verbatim the GFS is a pretty major ice event? 

 

yeah...it is precipitating in the western burbs for almost 24 hours with temps in the upper 20s, and it is probably mostly of the steady light type with an impotent sun and on top of 1-2" of snow/sleet....it would be awesome....

[Amped]

On a side note GFS and EUro long range so an Subtropical jet trying to get going in the western Pacific. This was noted on DTs facebook.   Hopefully this will make it to the US later this winter.  It's not an El Nino year, so I don't have that much hope.   All we need is one juicy shortwave at the right time and we're above average for the winter.

 

[yoda]

yeah...it is precipitating in the western burbs for almost 24 hours with temps in the upper 20s, and it is probably mostly of the steady light type with an impotent sun and on top of 1-2" of snow/sleet....it would be awesome....

1-3/2-4 with ice on top is fine by me. Would be nice to see on the ground as well

[Huffwx]

yeah...it is precipitating in the western burbs for almost 24 hours with temps in the upper 20s, and it is probably mostly of the steady light type with an impotent sun and on top of 1-2" of snow/sleet....it would be awesome....

 

 

Pretty cold soundings down my way..under h85. Sleety

[HighStakes]

1-3/2-4 with ice on top is fine by me. Would be nice to see on the ground as well

I'll take it.That would bean ideal start to winter. If an exhausting week of tracking and model watching resulted in that scenario i would be satisfied.

[CAPE]

Probably not a good idea to look at specifics on any one model run this far out(other than for fun of course). The 12z and 0z GFS ensemble as well as the Euro ens have more value, to me, looking at an event 7-8 days out. Sure I look at the 0z and 12z op runs as well, but the "off" runs of the GFS... looking at a day 8 event? Eh, why bother. Besides, football is on

[WinterWxLuvr]

The ensembles look good. Some are faster, but overall really good, IMO

[Bob Chill]

This is the most important storm of our lives since Jan 2011.

I'm pretty stoked to see a solid cold hp in a good position on both the euro and gfs. It's definitely the feature to watch. These kinds of events aren't overly complicated. We're still a long ways off but I don't think it will be a now you see it now you don't on the models. Someone here or nearby has a good chance at a real winter event. Good times.

[Wonderdog]

When was the last time we had such a good potential over running event?I'm thinking 2003 or 2004 but I could definitely be wrong.

[eurojosh]

On a side note GFS and EUro long range so an Subtropical jet trying to get going in the western Pacific. This was noted on DTs facebook.   Hopefully this will make it to the US later this winter.  It's not an El Nino year, so I don't have that much hope.   All we need is one juicy shortwave at the right time and we're above average for the winter.

 

 

 

The thing about averages here - whether in terms of the season or individual months (there was a discussion yesterday about average snow in December) is that means don't really apply - it's feast or famine.  I'd be interested in seeing a dual-median type analysis - what's the median snowfall for December, for example, for historical months that have accumulated more than a trace?

[Amped]

The thing about averages here - whether in terms of the season or individual months (there was a discussion yesterday about average snow in December) is that means don't really apply - it's feast or famine.  I'd be interested in seeing a dual-median type analysis - what's the median snowfall for December, for example, for historical months that have accumulated more than a trace?

You mean nobody has really looked and established a correlation between The negative height anomalies in the subtropical  WPAC in early December and snowfall in the mid Atlantic?    Yeah I would agree.  However even in El Nino years the Southern Jet usually isn't cranking until January to February.   That's when I assume there would be some correlation with snow or at least above average precip in our area.

[eurojosh]

You mean nobody has really looked and established a correlation between The negative height anomalies in the subtropical  WPAC in early December and snowfall in the mid Atlantic?    Yeah I would agree.  However even in El Nino years the Southern Jet usually isn't cranking until January to February.   That's when I assume there would be some correlation with snow or at least above average precip in our area.

 

That's at least eight levels of thought deeper than I was going....  I was simply saying that means for snowfall amount aren't really useful in our region, because they are an average of decades of nothing with individual years of extreme weather.

[Bob Chill]

Amped, you got me thinking. We're in a multi year neutral and far removed from the last Nina. And 3.4 is warming (albeit very slowly) towards +. Some models continue through winter to as much as +.5. Not sure the actual # matters because Nino is off the table but the simple fact the region is warming could possibly assert "some" influence on the stj. There are few if any analogs with enso conditions we're experiencing over the last couple years.

[WinterWxLuvr]

That's at least eight levels of thought deeper than I was going.... I was simply saying that means for snowfall amount aren't really useful in our region, because they are an average of decades of nothing with individual years of extreme weather.

I agree. The median is usually a better indicator of what's really going on.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Amped, you got me thinking. We're in a multi year neutral and far removed from the last Nina. And 3.4 is warming (albeit very slowly) towards +. Some models continue through winter to as much as +.5. Not sure the actual # matters because Nino is off the table but the simple fact the region is warming could possibly assert "some" influence on the stj. There are few if any analogs with enso conditions we're experiencing over the last couple years.

I had the same hypothesis a while back. Matt is the only response I got. There aren't many examples of a warming enso during the winter months, especially after a long neg/neutral period.