Brandonjva Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Canadian predicts nao to move extremely pos: http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/407020172096991232/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Canadian predicts nao to move extremely pos: http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/407020172096991232/photo/1 That would kinda suck, but then we have had a -NAO that doesnt perform at all (see last winter). When cold is on our side of the globe and we have a decent west based -NAO, its just so much easier to get snow chances in the MA. Especially if our friend the 50/50 vortex shows up. The cold stays locked in, and if the PNA cooperates, trough position/orientation is usually ideal. The reality is we may not see that this winter, but at least this pattern has been able to deliver cold thus far. There is at least some potential, and we didnt have much of that last year. FWIW, GFS and GEFS forecasts imply neutral to perhaps slightly negative NAO week 2 of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looks like one helluva ICE storm on the 12z GFS Day 7-8...850 temps soar, but HP keeps the low levels frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looks like one helluva ICE storm on the 12z GFS Day 7-8...850 temps soar, but HP keeps the low levels frigid. Its an interesting forecast, the ridge in off the west coast is far enough west that there is room for even more troffing in the west than the GFS indicates at around 144 to 156 hours. There are some 06Z GEFS members that have that idea. Both the GFS and last nights euro have a monster shortwave diving southward across canada. How that monster interacts with the shortwave energy coming out of the southwest will determine whether we have a really flat wave like the GFS, a low towards the Great Lakes like last night's euro or something in between like the euro ens mean. My gut feeling is the in between idea has more traction which would offer a possible snow or ice to rain solution for dc and possible snow to ice solution for points west but right now it's still too early to get into specifics as the operational euro could be right though even it has us in some winter weather prior to the low going towards the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looks like one helluva ICE storm on the 12z GFS Day 7-8...850 temps soar, but HP keeps the low levels frigid. OH NOES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Late sun through Mon is about a good an overunning setup you can ask for all things considered. The 9th remains a solid window of op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 GFS starting to show wedge/CAD at 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 OH NOES! We can have an ice storm now that I don't have to drive around in it and my power lines are buried. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Late sun through Mon is about a good an overunning setup you can ask for all things considered. The 9th remains a solid window of op. Agreed and you can see the GFS started to show what the Euro showed last night..CAD sig. Let's hope it sticks around the closer in we get to this. But I'm on board. WD index is high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looks like one helluva ICE storm on the 12z GFS Day 7-8...850 temps soar, but HP keeps the low levels frigid. What maps are you looking at? Day 7 850's are plenty cold and only approach 0 by day 8 only to fall rapidly after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Agreed and you can see the GFS started to show what the Euro showed last night..CAD sig. Let's hope it sticks around the closer in we get to this. But I'm on board. WD index is high. Op run at 8 days disclaimer of course but you can't ask for a better surface hp placement and boundary alignment. Now the euro and gfs both show a decent chance with different solutions. So if you take the blend you get 1/1=1 decent chance at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 What maps are you looking at? Day 7 850's are plenty cold and only approach 0 by day 8 only to fall rapidly after that. I should of said Day 7-9...because disturbances keep getting kicked around the trough. 192-204 hours is warm at 850 but still cold at surface with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Can't help it, getting tingly feeling over this one. Just hope the euro doesn't assassinate it in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Agreed and you can see the GFS started to show what the Euro showed last night..CAD sig. Let's hope it sticks around the closer in we get to this. But I'm on board. WD index is high. Seems pretty much in line with what the gfs has been showing for a while. Looks very much in line with what it showed at 0z. I like how it's been abundant in its ensembles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 GFS is exciting as wintry precip chances abound p.s. at the end of the run it looks like we warm but then a fresh load of arctic delight is coming down from western Canada for hopefully a repeat performance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 One thing for sure, both the gfs and euro are beating a gulf moisture feed drum like we haven't seen in basically forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 There looks to be another overrunning chance earlier than that -- Days 5 to 6 -- but that is rain. I assume that is what lays down the boundaries for our later chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Some front running snow before disaster. 10 day euro looks good with big s/w in south That's pretty much going to be any storm in this timeframe....Have you not been following along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Seems pretty much in line with what the gfs has been showing for a while. Looks very much in line with what it showed at 0z. I like how it's been abundant in its ensembles too. Sort of. It didn't quite have the classic looking damning sig on those past runs, although it was def cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 There looks to be another overrunning chance earlier than that -- Days 5 to 6 -- but that is rain. I assume that is what lays down the boundaries for our later chances? yep....in the old days , it was common to have the first bout of precip come through as rain with the trailing slp that dragged the boundary to our south with our wintry chances increasing with round 2, or 3 if there was one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 That's pretty much going to be any storm in this timeframe....Have you not been following along Take a look at the polar 500 panels at the end of the run. Your block is showing up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Take a look at the polar 500 panels at the end of the run. Your block is showing up..... Is that a splitting of the PV I also see at the end of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Is that a splitting of the PV I also see at the end of the run? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_polar_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=polar¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Is that a splitting of the PV I also see at the end of the run? Not sure. I don't know the classic evolution of that pattern. My guess is the gfs is doing the showing signs thing and in reality if a block happens it will be delayed. If stable ridging does poke into gl with stable ridging poleward in ak then it could lock in cold on our side and buckle the flow. Total wag speculation but if anything like that we're to happen then the last week or so of the month could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I think it's gonna take one hell of a fetch to get any moisture into the arctic air for much snow or ice, so I'm expecting more of a virgageddon type event to play out. Maybe some freezing drizzle, etc. But there is always a fine line when timing the precipitation with an arctic frontal passage. As Wes pointed out these are the types of setups that typically trend colder and drier as we get closer to verification time, and I'm leaning that direction. I believe this will be more of a dry than wet event for the immediate metro area. Points south may see a solid snow/ice storm. Virgageddon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I think it's gonna take one hell of a fetch to get any moisture into the arctic air for much snow or ice, so I'm expecting more of a virgageddon type event to play out. Maybe some freezing drizzle, etc. But there is always a fine line when timing the precipitation with an arctic frontal passage. As Wes pointed out these are the types of setups that typically trend colder and drier as we get closer to verification time, and I'm leaning that direction. I believe this will be more of a dry than wet event for the immediate metro area. Points south may see a solid snow/ice storm. Virgageddon! Your first and last sentence are completely at odds with each other. Might want to rethink the whole argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I think it's gonna take one hell of a fetch to get any moisture into the arctic air for much snow or ice, so I'm expecting more of a virgageddon type event to play out. Maybe some freezing drizzle, etc. But there is always a fine line when timing the precipitation with an arctic frontal passage. As Wes pointed out these are the types of setups that typically trend colder and drier as we get closer to verification time, and I'm leaning that direction. I believe this will be more of a dry than wet event for the immediate metro area. Points south may see a solid snow/ice storm. Virgageddon! My comment was only if the wave was weak with the vort to our north. With a strong vort, that's not always true but then the wave might go north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I think it's gonna take one hell of a fetch to get any moisture into the arctic air for much snow or ice, so I'm expecting more of a virgageddon type event to play out. Maybe some freezing drizzle, etc. But there is always a fine line when timing the precipitation with an arctic frontal passage. As Wes pointed out these are the types of setups that typically trend colder and drier as we get closer to verification time, and I'm leaning that direction. I believe this will be more of a dry than wet event for the immediate metro area. Points south may see a solid snow/ice storm. Virgageddon! Not sure how you can be expecting a virga fest on a potential event that is 8 days out. So many details yet to be resolved and there are a variety of outcomes possible. I will say that a freezing drizzle event its probably the least likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 My comment was only if the wave was weak with the vort to our north. With a strong vort, that's not always true but then the wave might go north of us. Which is why typically we are cold and dry (weak vort slides south of the deep cold air) or warm and wet, the strong vort moves the arctic boundary north of us. I'm leaning toward cold and dry at the surface with plenty of virga on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Not sure how you can be expecting a virga fest on a potential event that is 8 days out. So many details yet to be resolved and there are a variety of outcomes possible. I will say that a freezing drizzle event its probably the least likely. I agree, at this time range it's hard to be definitive about anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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