stormtracker Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I hate the SE Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 What isn't messed up is the potential that exists. Still very much alive. Am I missing something? The overrunning time frame panels aren't even out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 not bad...gets us decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Yeah, Overrunning potential is still there. Looks even better than 18z. Not sure where all the negative talk was about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 not bad...gets us decent I like this one. Could thread the needle and get a 1 to 2 incher. Its 180 hours out, but it's all we got at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Yeah, Overrunning potential is still there. Looks even better than 18z. Not sure where all the negative talk was about. hits us pretty good...the low pressure to our NW is kind of troublesome, but here we have a nice HP to our north...probably mixy for us for a time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 hits us pretty good...the low pressure to our NW is kind of troublesome, but here we have a nice HP to our north...probably mixy for us for a time... December snow/mix is bonus. I'll take mixy at this point. What would a storm/event be around here if not for some fly in the ointment along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Big time weenie storm at 324/336. At least we got some chances coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 December snow/mix is bonus. I'll take mixy at this point. What would a storm/event be around here if not for some fly in the ointment along the way. 324 hours this is actually a pattern we haven't seen in a couple years...somewhat of a split flow and somewhat of a 50-50 with lots of cold air and a southern stream....so waves keep riding along the same boundary....I mean if we are going to get snow with a +NAO, this is a good way to do it....a nice change at least from the 0.04" QPF pac men from the west and the 992mb lows into Chicago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 ill take this run of the gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Big time weenie storm at 324/336. At least we got some chances coming up. this is not the same old pattern...these events can be moisture laden.....As I mentioned yesterday or the day before....this is a good sleety mess set up....I know DT was honking ice storm at some point..not sure about that, but my guess is the column with any of these events for DC proper is going to have issues..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 this is not the same old pattern...these events can be moisture laden.....As I mentioned yesterday or the day before....this is a good sleety mess set up....I know DT was honking ice storm at some point..not sure about that, but my guess is the column with any of these events for DC proper is going to have issues..... Anything besides rain is good with me. I got to see some insane freezing rain with the past event coming home today. Rode over Mt. Pleasant in out toward Johnstown and my god. There was still like .75- 1" of ice on the trees. That's some thick stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 ill take this run of the gfs lol nice moisture feed...I don't care what happens...any run without a 0.07" QPF event from the west demolished by the mountains is a good one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 it is a nonstop moisture belt from our southwest for like 10 straight days...we have to get something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 we get almost 5" of QPF this run...Chicago get 0.1".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 we get almost 5" of QPF this run...Chicago get 0.1".... I've been watching the cfs2 for the past few months and they have consistently had December wet for us. If we don't score in this window we are doomed for rest of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 it is a nonstop moisture belt from our southwest for like 10 straight days...we have to get something.... Yea, this look has been off an on. Vorts and storms intensifying near the gulf. It is something we haven't seen for a while. The caveat as you already mentioned is the lack of a -nao. East based hints late in the run but lr has been flipped more times than pancakes at the ihop. Definitely favorable surface hp's verbatim. Each wave (if they even happen) will have it's own personality. Devils in the details and the details are foggy at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Tonight's GGEM has same idea, but its a day earlier than the GFS and its rain. As Bob and Matt have said, much to be worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 One thing I take a little comfort in is the difference between the euro and gfs in this specific case. The euro has proven over the years to have a bias towards digging and hanging troughs and energy in the west in the lr. It's not dumb to think the gfs has more of the right idea overall. But even if you go in between the 2 we are on the losing side. As mentioned the lp near the lakes is troublesome for obvious reasons. But surface reflections like that this far out have little accuracy. The 5h energy is still zipping along for the most part with the northern stream. How the timing actually happens cannot be really nailed down for days to come. I'm personally not concerned with anything embedded in the ns attm. It could suck and it could be fine. I just want to shovel my driveway and walk one time before the 3 year anniversary this January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 I hate the SE Ridge. In this specific case the damn ridge is actually a net positive. Flatter flow without it and everything slides out beneath us. Rooting for a se ridge goes against my dna. I'm conflicted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Anything besides rain is good with me. I got to see some insane freezing rain with the past event coming home today. Rode over Mt. Pleasant in out toward Johnstown and my god. There was still like .75- 1" of ice on the trees. That's some thick stuff. Yep, that's a nice little ice storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Euro op is on board for snow. Way different than 12z. Uncertainty prevails. Very cold d10 after quick warm up. First half of Dec has all options on the table. Fun start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Some front running snow before disaster. 10 day euro looks good with big s/w in south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I've been watching the cfs2 for the past few months years and they have consistently had December wet for us. If we don't score in this window we are doomed for rest of month fixed p.s. 6z gfs not as tasty but still has the same basic ideas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Next friday doesn't look as warm on recent model runs...end of 6z gfs run is gruesome but as others have said...colder seems to win out. How long will that luck hold out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 fixed p.s. 6z gfs not as tasty but still has the same basic ideas The cfs2 reference always makes me chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Next friday doesn't look as warm on recent model runs...end of 6z gfs run is gruesome but as others have said...colder seems to win out. How long will that luck hold out? How long can the WPO/EPO continue to save us? Sooner or later going to need some cooperation from the PNA, NAO, and AO. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 How long can the WPO/EPO continue to save us? Sooner or later going to need some cooperation from the PNA, NAO, and AO. ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png even if we lose the -EPO, though that chart says otherwise, who's to say we can't get cold by some other mechanism (e.g. -AO, -NAO or +PNA)? neither the science/scientists are good enough to predict the lr with certainty, generally or specifics and even if the general conditions can be reasonably predicted, that's not not say we can't still sneak a wintry event out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 even if we lose the -EPO, though that chart says otherwise, who's to say we can't get cold by some other mechanism (e.g. -AO, -NAO or +PNA)? neither the science/scientists are good enough to predict the lr with certainty, generally or specifics and even if the general conditions can be reasonably predicted, that's not not say we can't still sneak a wintry event out of it That data is a few days old, but it underscores what we all know about how we have managed to get the cold thus far. Problem is, with the AO/NAO remaining positive, the issue is timing a storm while we have the cold. Its more difficult, not impossible. We do have something on the horizon that looks interesting, models have been consistent with the overall idea. Specifics to be determined, but certainly something more trackable than we have seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Our window looks to be on or around the 9th. The euro esnembles after the 9th have another wave going to our north, not as strong as the operational euro but it would probably warm us enough for rain or a mix to rain. I'm with tracker, I don't like a southeast ridge. strong systems usually go to our north and weak systems can miss us just to the south. You can get snow but I seem to remember events that look sort of snowy drying up as they get into the shorter range. Still, there is cold and should be moisture nearby so it would be foolish to dismiss the snow possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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