Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Pretty exciting times ahead I think. I agree completely with your last paragraph. Gefs looks pretty cold next week and tells weenies no worry about the -epo going poof. End of the run is relaxed but could care less about d16 right now. Let's track some digital snow first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Gefs looks pretty cold next week and tells weenies no worry about the -epo going poof. End of the run is relaxed but could care less about d16 right now. Let's track some digital snow first. my WAG is 12/1-12/7 - warm overall with a cooler start 12/8 - 12/15 - cold, but oscillating 12/16 - 12/25 - very warm, cooling right before Christmas 12/26 - 1/10 - cold and "snowy" 1/11 - 1/31 - warm winning over cold, not much snow after that who knows...not that I know before that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Matt, I hope you're right and your wag mimics my overall thoughts that I've had for months leading up. Couple weeks of good then bad then good. Simply a continuance of what we've seen since late last winter. I personally like it and hope that's exactly how it shakes out. Enough with the story of 2 winters. I will want to puke if we have to chase the "flip" for a month or more this winter. So far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Matt, I hope you're right and your wag mimics my overall thoughts that I've had for months leading up. Couple weeks of good then bad then good. Simply a continuance of what we've seen since late last winter. I personally like it and hope that's exactly how it shakes out. Enough with the story of 2 winters. I will want to puke if we have to chase the "flip" for a month or more this winter. So far so good. Nothing worse than the flip. Which gets delayed and delayed. I think maybe we get a block right around Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I note that the 12Z euro at 240 has a low in the lakes. Funny thing about that after DTs comments on my facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Matt, you would think we get a block at some point right? Elusive so far but Nov blocks aren't really important. We'll prob have some ideas if/when the ao declines from its second spike. I imagine if a favorable block happens it will take some time to materialize rather than magically appear. Wes, DT (if he hasn't already) will say the euro ens totally disagree with the op so throw it out and his ideas are still firmly in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Matt, you would think we get a block at some point right? Elusive so far but Nov blocks aren't really important. We'll prob have some ideas if/when the ao declines from its second spike. I imagine if a favorable block happens it will take some time to materialize rather than magically appear. Wes, DT (if he hasn't already) will say the euro ens totally disagree with the op so throw it out and his ideas are still firmly in place. What's bad is it's a shifting argument. For that reason, I may just pull the plug on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Matt, you would think we get a block at some point right? Elusive so far but Nov blocks aren't really important. We'll prob have some ideas if/when the ao declines from its second spike. I imagine if a favorable block happens it will take some time to materialize rather than magically appear. Wes, DT (if he hasn't already) will say the euro ens totally disagree with the op so throw it out and his ideas are still firmly in place. We probably will get a decent period or two with a block but you have to wonder with all the cold available if it just doesn't overwhelm the pattern. We may go into the bone dry freezer and watch the clipper parade pass by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Matt, you would think we get a block at some point right? Elusive so far but Nov blocks aren't really important. We'll prob have some ideas if/when the ao declines from its second spike. I imagine if a favorable block happens it will take some time to materialize rather than magically appear. Wes, DT (if he hasn't already) will say the euro ens totally disagree with the op so throw it out and his ideas are still firmly in place. Hopefully the 12 Euro will be wrong with its handling of the Pacific and the next trough digging into the west. It certainly could be overamplified a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Hopefully the 12 Euro will be wrong with its handling of the Pacific and the next trough digging into the west. It certainly could be overamplified a bit. Watching that model, it seems to do that at the end of every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 We probably will get a decent period or two with a block but you have to wonder with all the cold available if it just doesn't overwhelm the pattern. We may go into the bone dry freezer and watch the clipper parade pass by. Given the promise of the southern stream being active this month, I would prefer blocking in some fashion. There is definitely signs of storms originating or vorts intensifying near the gulf. A block would keep them from running west of us. It's never easy right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Don S just reversed his call for Dec and now has gone mild.in the east. The shift in the data was too convincing to ignore. I suspect that the turn in what I was looking at is more than variability where I could simply leave the forecast as is. Moreover, the EPO is not forecastable beyond two weeks or so (at least I've found no literature to argue otherwise). Nevertheless, the EPO- regime would be pushing up against historical benchmarks by mid-December, so some relaxation if not a turn to positive for at least a time seems more likely than not. The overall idea of a milder winter remains unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 No reason to expect the pattern which emerged 3 weeks ago to change. In fact, one week ago the 7 day for today was highs in the low 50's. This recent shot ws actually more than 3-5 days but in general the cold wins out, the warmth underperforms, we continue 3-5+ cold, 1-2 mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Don, your posts are excellent and part of my daily read. It's hard not to agree. This year is fun. Warmer usually means hopeless torch in these parts. But variability this year leaves windows open. With that being said, the blind weenie side of me hopes you bust . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 No reason to expect the pattern which emerged 3 weeks ago to change. In fact, one week ago the 7 day for today was highs in the low 50's. This recent shot ws actually more than 3-5 days but in general the cold wins out, the warmth underperforms, we continue 3-5+ cold, 1-2 mild.I don't know if that's true. The models were pretty cold for Thanksgiving and surrounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Given the promise of the southern stream being active this month, I would prefer blocking in some fashion. There is definitely signs of storms originating or vorts intensifying near the gulf. A block would keep them from running west of us. It's never easy right? Never easy is a mild way to put it, but if we can get some decent blocking by late Dec. into early Jan. I think your idea of an active southern stream might work out. If any blocking is delayed until mid Jan. then I think cold/dry would dominate but that's just a guess. Our region usually does best with -nao in February in terms of cold and stormy combined. I hope we can some blocking in late Dec. and early Jan. because then we may be able to time another period of blocking in early Feb. which would be ideal. If our first period of blocking is delayed until mid Jan. then the next period may come too late for us if it comes at all. March snow events have not been working out too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 No reason to expect the pattern which emerged 3 weeks ago to change. In fact, one week ago the 7 day for today was highs in the low 50's. This recent shot ws actually more than 3-5 days but in general the cold wins out, the warmth underperforms, we continue 3-5+ cold, 1-2 mild. I understand your thinking but there actually is reason to believe the pattern can change. Most here are all in agreement that we have been cold because of the -epo. The fact that we have been relying on this one factor gives us nothing to fall back on . As Don Sutherland has showed us if the -epo continues through mid month it will be approaching unprecedented territory. History tells us the probability of this reversing is pretty significant so we need the other indicies to change in our favor to keep us cold. Records are always broken so who knows, maybe the -epo defies the odds and stays the way it has been beyond mid month and runs right up to the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Looks pretty certain that the first 8-10 days of December are going to be average to above average for temps. Beyond that, around Dec 10-15, is the period where whats left of the arctic dump in the west oozes eastward, while some moisture gets involved from the southern stream. Hard to say how it will evolve, but some well timed blocking, even if transient, would help. Seems possible looking at the GFS ensm... there is some variability but looks like it could dip negative at least briefly. At some point the AO and NAO need to flip, as the -EPO will eventually relax and not save us, and then we wont even get our cold and dry periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Watching that model, it seems to do that at the end of every run. As long as the mean trough stays west that's not surprising. That was why in yesterday's discussion I was hesitant to say how cold or long the cold spell after this week would last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Don, your posts are excellent and part of my daily read. It's hard not to agree. This year is fun. Warmer usually means hopeless torch in these parts. But variability this year leaves windows open. With that being said, the blind weenie side of me hopes you bust . I hope I bust, as well. I much prefer snow and cold to any other alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 latest MOS has DCA averaging +4 for the 1st week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 No reason to expect the pattern which emerged 3 weeks ago to change. In fact, one week ago the 7 day for today was highs in the low 50's. This recent shot ws actually more than 3-5 days but in general the cold wins out, the warmth underperforms, we continue 3-5+ cold, 1-2 mild. This upcoming week could break the recent trend...nothing set in stone of course, but decent chance mid week to end of weekend give or take a day is our longest + departure stretch in over a month and cold shot after that doesn't look like it has as much staying power as the recent one...I still think there is a short window of time after the next cold shot to get a wintry event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 latest MOS has DCA averaging +4 for the 1st week...I'm on the snow. train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 DT's overrunning potential is on the 18z GFS, right around 180 hours and beyond truncation, go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 DT's overrunning potential is on the 18z GFS, right around 180 hours and beyond truncation, go figure. It has been showing up on all the models for a couple days now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 It has been showing up on all the models for a couple days now... It has disappeared and came back in various forms for quite some time on the models, usually suppressed or rainy. Too far out to get excited about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 It has been showing up on all the models for a couple days now... Sure has, and it's all over the ensembles. Next weekend looks to at least draw interest if the GFS members are taken as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Sure has, and it's all over the ensembles. Next weekend looks to at least draw interest if the GFS members are taken as is. I think the best news is the ensembles including the Euro don't like the op Euro 240 hr low in the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Ofc, tonights overrunning potential gets messed up by a low in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Ofc, tonights overrunning potential gets messed up by a low in Canada What isn't messed up is the potential that exists. Still very much alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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