December and a Hint of January Pattern Discussion

[snow.]

I like the Dec 10-14 period. No way to know the specifics but it seems apparent per the GFS and Euro Ensembles that there is going to be a lot of arctic air close by as well as a pretty strong SE ridge. In between there is going to be quite a gradient in temps with some southern energy streaming eastward. Easy to be pessimistic looking at the PNA and NAO outlooks not being favorable, but that changes every few model cycles so who knows. I like the fact that the cold has managed to "win out" overall lately, despite the +AO and NAO. The -WPO and EPO have helped, but of course the timing is not there as the cold periods are transient, its difficult to get a storm with a favorable track, and the cold air mass tends to get stale and exit with no blocking. I just like the overall general look, and at least the chance of something different- arctic air oozing east with some overrunning, which MAY result in some ice or snow for the MA. At least its something to watch.

 

 

It's definitely the best setup for a chance at something we've seen so far but that isn't saying much because its the first chance and a long ways off.

I could be wrong in saying this so correct me bit I think we are better off with a more wrapped up cutter next weekend than a wave or waves riding the gradient. We need a push of cold and may not get it without some more oomph. An arctic boundary and arctic front are 2 different scenarios.

The gfs low res in the lr is muddy. Imo I think we would be much better off with a more wrapped up cutter pushing the front through and then a relaxation with another wave on the tail. If we're fringed with the real cold after next weekend then we would probably get a messy event. We need an airmass tougher to push out of the way than the gfs is showing.

Should be a fun week watching the progression get resolved. It's not really a good setup. Wes drilled it down nicely in his article. But the possibility to score something is there. Lets get some good luck in here for goodness sakes. It's been a multi year stretch of back luck being the only luck.

 

 

IDK Bob. We haven't had much luck with strong pushes of arctic air. We usually end up with partly cloudy. I'm ok with a messy OV low that gets us good on the front end with a strong push of cold behind it or with an arctic boundary setting up just south of us with some over running. Seems like those waves on the tail of an arctic front just slide past us, teasing us, or they blow up completely like the last one and flood us with warmth (although later in winter that one is probably a different story).

I think you guys are right, though. Chances seem to be coming.

 

all good thoughts

 

This is guesswork, but I think we do not want a strong cutter and a subsequent big arctic push....I think what happens then is we get one of those 1016 lows scooting off the NC coast....We want  something to slide along the gradient and hope we have enough HP to our north/west..we are better with some 1028/1032/1036 mb high to our northwest....bleed some cold air down, and have some 1012mb low take a good track from the TN valley...we actually benefit from not having a block there so suppression isn't as much an issue...a setup like that could actually be pretty moisture laden...not the usual 0.06" QPF pac man coming from the west....the big problem is the 850mb 0 line could be over Jebman's house lol....probably a big fricking mess of storm in terms of precp tyoe....but fun if we can get the real deal airmass at the surface.....

[CAPE]

all good thoughts

 

This is guesswork, but I think we do not want a strong cutter and a subsequent big arctic push....I think what happens then is we get one of those 1016 lows scooting off the NC coast....We want  something to slide along the gradient and hope we have enough HP to our north/west..we are better with some 1028/1032/1036 mb high to our northwest....bleed some cold air down, and have some 1012mb low take a good track from the TN valley...we actually benefit from not having a block there so suppression isn't as much an issue...a setup like that could actually be pretty moisture laden...not the usual 0.06" QPF pac man coming from the west....the big problem is the 850mb 0 line could be over Jebman's house lol....probably a big fricking mess of storm in terms of precp tyoe....but fun if we can get the real deal airmass at the surface.....

I agree. I've seen enough cutters/inland runners and we know how that plays out...we get the cold and wind but the following wave, should there be one, is progressive/develops too far offshore. The idea the models have been advertising for the upcoming period is far from perfect, but its at least DIFFERENT. Depending how far the modified arctic air mass penetrates, the range of possibilities is a shallow cold air layer with ice to rain, or if we get a bit of luck the SE ridge weakens/ moves further east and the deeper cold pushes further south and the MD VA area gets on the northern periphery of the moisture with maybe a light to moderate snow event. Based on the latest guidance we get mild thereafter, as the pattern goes more zonal mid month.

[mitchnick]

although it's too early to say any particular "pattern" has been established this cold season, I think we've had good luck with getting cold to us so far thanks to the -EPO

I know there are signs the ridge in AK gets lost in or around 2 weeks from now, it hangs around long enough

that said, I think we either torch with the boundary staying way too far north or we have a moderate, albeit, messy event

my bias is, of course, for the later, but this year we've shown we can get cold, and colder relative to normal than NE, and I believe that's always a good sign wrt temps cooperating

[snow.]

although it's too early to say any particular "pattern" has been established this cold season, I think we've had good luck with getting cold to us so far thanks to the -EPO

I know there are signs the ridge in AK gets lost in or around 2 weeks from now, it hangs around long enough

that said, I think we either torch with the boundary staying way too far north or we have a moderate, albeit, messy event

my bias is, of course, for the later, but this year we've shown we can get cold, and colder relative to normal than NE, and I believe that's always a good sign wrt temps cooperating

 

we all know this...we are a very knowledgable forum, but our average dec snow over the last 20 years is 2.3"....1.5" if you take out 2009....median is 0.8"....and I assume these herculean totals are weighted toward the 2nd half of the month.......so what does that leave as our norm for 12/1-15...maybe 1" tops...It is good we are all being reasonable....I have somewhat high hopes we won't become despondent and suicidal this winter....well, medium hopes...

[usedtobe]

we all know this...we are a very knowledgable forum, but our average dec snow over the last 20 years is 2.3"....1.5" if you take out 2009....median is 0.8"....and I assume these herculean totals are weighted toward the 2nd half of the month.......so what does that leave as our norm for 12/1-15...maybe 1" tops...It is good we are all being reasonable....I have somewhat high hopes we won't become despondent and suicidal this winter....well, medium hopes...

 

We do have pretty knowledgeable group.  With a positive AO and rPNA I'm sure it's even worse for the 1st 15 days of the month.  WIthout a neg ao or PNA ,  this is about as good a pattern as you can get for cold. 

[mitchnick]

we all know this...we are a very knowledgable forum, but our average dec snow over the last 20 years is 2.3"....1.5" if you take out 2009....median is 0.8"....and I assume these herculean totals are weighted toward the 2nd half of the month.......so what does that leave as our norm for 12/1-15...maybe 1" tops...It is good we are all being reasonable....I have somewhat high hopes we won't become despondent and suicidal this winter....well, medium hopes...

borrowing from a related topic, if this winter doesn't meet my standards, I'll just have to lower them like I usually do 

I've almost become comfortable with feeling sorry for us!

[WinterWxLuvr]

I don't feel discouraged at all by any two week forecasts of warmth. In reading some of the posts throughout the forum it would seem that so far what we've seen is a bit perplexing to those who dabble in the long range. We also have about 6 months of modeled warmth failing to live up to its billing.

If I could be granted one wish, it would be for wet. We get that and sooner or later we will get the temps. Nothing is worse than sitting here with cold like we did late Jan and a good deal of Feb with zip in the precip. That's why I'd like to see a stalled boundary near us. I'd think you'd have precip threats rolling through frequently. Could be wrong I suppose.

I'd prefer two inches of snow that actually falls occasionally over the big storm to track that actually delivers once every 7 or 8 years.

[87storms]

I don't feel discouraged at all by any two week forecasts of warmth. In reading some of the posts throughout the forum it would seem that so far what we've seen is a bit perplexing to those who dabble in the long range. We also have about 6 months of modeled warmth failing to live up to its billing.

If I could be granted one wish, it would be for wet. We get that and sooner or later we will get the temps. Nothing is worse than sitting here with cold like we did late Jan and a good deal of Feb with zip in the precip. That's why I'd like to see a stalled boundary near us. I'd think you'd have precip threats rolling through frequently. Could be wrong I suppose.

I'd prefer two inches of snow that actually falls occasionally over the big storm to track that actually delivers once every 7 or 8 years.

 

it's nice to have a pattern of cold develop heading into winter, but if it's going to be warm let it be in december when we average about 2" of snow.  jan/feb are our months.

[Ji]

If we don't score in this dec 10-15 period...we will be snowless in dec

[mitchnick]

If we don't score in this dec 10-15 period...we will be snowless in dec

[usedtobe]

I don't feel discouraged at all by any two week forecasts of warmth. In reading some of the posts throughout the forum it would seem that so far what we've seen is a bit perplexing to those who dabble in the long range. We also have about 6 months of modeled warmth failing to live up to its billing.

If I could be granted one wish, it would be for wet. We get that and sooner or later we will get the temps. Nothing is worse than sitting here with cold like we did late Jan and a good deal of Feb with zip in the precip. That's why I'd like to see a stalled boundary near us. I'd think you'd have precip threats rolling through frequently. Could be wrong I suppose.

I'd prefer two inches of snow that actually falls occasionally over the big storm to track that actually delivers once every 7 or 8 years.

My article certainly didn't call for two weeks of warmth.  I called for average temps with the month starting cold,  being warm for a couple of days and then having the cold front come through.    I think for you,  around the 10th doesn't look bad.  for Matt and I it's probably a harder row to hoe but the euro operational would offer some chances at seeing winter weather on the front end. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

My article certainly didn't call for two weeks of warmth. I called for average temps with the month starting cold, being warm for a couple of days and then having the cold front come through. I think for you, around the 10th doesn't look bad. for Matt and I it's probably a harder row to hoe but the euro operational would offer some chances at seeing winter weather on the front end.

Oh no Wes, I wasn't referring to your article. I meant all the model and teleconnection talk I'd seen over the forum. You never write in absolutes.

It seems this year roles are reversed. The cold delivers and the warmth comes up short. It will be hard to do as poorly as last December although the last week was good out here last year.

[usedtobe]

Oh no Wes, I wasn't referring to your article. I meant all the model and teleconnection talk I'd seen over the forum. You never write in absolutes.

It seems this year roles are reversed. The cold delivers and the warmth comes up short. It will be hard to do as poorly as last December although the last week was good out here last year.

This pattern is a lot more complicated than last year. As long as the -epo stays we probably have cold and warm periods interspersed.  if we lose the negative EPO it could get ugly if the AO continues its positive path.  I dont

 think there is any good way to predict the EPO (at least I can't).  I do worry about high amplitude ridges.  It a closed high were to develop with a low under it,  usually the ridge then ends up retrograding. 

[Bob Chill]

This pattern is a lot more complicated than last year. As long as the -epo stays we probably have cold and warm periods interspersed. if we lose the negative EPO it could get ugly if the AO continues its positive path. I dont

think there is any good way to predict the EPO (at least I can't). I do worry about high amplitude ridges. It a closed high were to develop with a low under it, usually the ridge then ends up retrograding.

Euro ens gefs point towards relaxation with the -epo within 2 weeks. Euro definitely worse than the gefs but both have similar ideas overall.

Don S just reversed his call for Dec and now has gone mild.in the east.

As you said, it's complicated. It's been very muddy lately past d7. A relaxation makes logical sense. A flip to an extended period of +epo/+ao is definitely possible but I'll definitely chuckle if the relaxation is transient and we are back in the freezer before the 20th or so. We'll see if it's a temporary thing.

Lotsa tune changing through the forums last couple weeks. I have a hunch that will continue this month. This year has proven very tough at long leads but that was expected in many ways.

Let's root for a -epo reload on the ens over the next week and change the tune again..

[PhineasC]

Don't ever recall seeing so much flip-flopping from guys like Don S. In Wes I trust.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The EPO outlook that I saw this morning had it continuing, if not falling, in negative territory.

[mattie g]

I think the best bet for the masses is to assume no one can make a definitive, confident call in the long range right now. It's a lot of guesswork that often changes every few days as the extended-range modeling comes out. At some point, someone will be right, but that's bound to happen with all these different forecasts that are so susceptible to be changed.

This isn't to knock those that make attempts at longer-range forecasting. It's just my take - that, to me, things are so volatile that no one can make a truly reliable forecast, and that there's no reason to get worked up about these calls one way or the other.

[usedtobe]

Euro ens gefs point towards relaxation with the -epo within 2 weeks. Euro definitely worse than the gefs but both have similar ideas overall.

Don S just reversed his call for Dec and now has gone mild.in the east.

As you said, it's complicated. It's been very muddy lately past d7. A relaxation makes logical sense. A flip to an extended period of +epo/+ao is definitely possible but I'll definitely chuckle if the relaxation is transient and we are back in the freezer before the 20th or so. We'll see if it's a temporary thing.

Lotsa tune changing through the forums last couple weeks. I have a hunch that will continue this month. This year has proven very tough at long leads but that was expected in many ways.

Let's root for a -epo reload on the ens over the next week and change the tune again..

Like you I'm rooting for the -epo and am not sure whether the positive EPO change will occur or not and if it occurs how long it might last.  DT is still locked into the -epo dominating the AO idea.  I think it helps but am not sure the Nov results would be the same as the wavelengths change going forward.  I think Don showed analogs with a neg EPO and pos AO elsewhere and came up with us being a little above normal on one of the other forums (I think NE).   I still kind of like what I wrote yesterday though I could see the Winchester contingent doing better with the pattern than us. 

[Bob Chill]

Like you I'm rooting for the -epo and am not sure whether the positive EPO change will occur or not and if it occurs how long it might last. DT is still locked into the -epo dominating the AO idea. I think it helps but am not sure the Nov results would be the same as the wavelengths change going forward. I think Don showed analogs with a neg EPO and pos AO elsewhere and came up with us being a little above normal on one of the other forums (I think NE). I still kind of like what I wrote yesterday though I could see the Winchester contingent doing better with the pattern than us.

I took a second look at the last night's euro ens. One thing I picked up on is that late in the run there is some ridging pushing into northern greenland that appears to keep the pv from retreating much so that is an ok sign in some ways. If the ak ridge retrogrades it's possible to get some help from the nao region. Definitely not a classic -nao look but it's worth noting. I'm sure there is plenty of spread with the members and it's way too far out to worry much about.

As we move through time the placement of the pv and whether any help shows up in GL to help keep it near hudson would be a net + if the ak ridge retrogrades.

The euro and gfs both want to snow on us in d8-10. Euro verbatim is all snow with temps AOB freezing. But boundaries like this cannot be resolved until much closer. The smart play is to just not worry about anything past the possible overrunning setup. Lets get some measurable snow in here for once. At least it's logically possible and not weenie wishcasting.

[Ian]

Is Dec really going to start cold? GFS mex appears to be above normal for the week.

[Amped]

Is Dec really going to start cold? GFS mex appears to be above normal for the week.

Agreed, pretty warm next week. Any cold air will be after the 7th.

[swva]

Last several runs of the GFS wants to bring in the cold earlier.  No doubt temps will be normal to above normal late in the week but Starting Dec. 7 or 8 things look to get interesting with several snow/ice chances.  12z looks good for our chances to me.  I can live with this pattern.  Beats cold and dry and at least gives us something to track.

[Ian]

Agreed, pretty warm next week. Any cold air will be after the 7th.

We might be basically normal as soon as tomorrow -- tho it prob finishes slightly below. The rest of the week thru Fri or maybe Sat looks above.  Perhaps +2 or so by the end of the week?

[snow.]

We might be basically normal as soon as tomorrow -- tho it prob finishes slightly below. The rest of the week thru Fri or maybe Sat looks above.  Perhaps +2 or so by the end of the week?

 

Friday/Sat could torch....

[Ian]

Friday/Sat could torch....

yeah +2 could be too low. i just kinda made that up.

 

the tue-wedish timeframe could go colder i suppose.

[Ian]

-50 in WY/MT. a bit cool.

 

[usedtobe]

Is Dec really going to start cold? GFS mex appears to be above normal for the week.

That's what the original analogs were suggesting but they had the warm from around the 4-9 timeframe and it looks like the timing of that stint will be earlier.   I note the GFS keeps tracking lows to our west through the entire run despite bringing highs down...the old roller coaster. 

[HighStakes]

Euro ens gefs point towards relaxation with the -epo within 2 weeks. Euro definitely worse than the gefs but both have similar ideas overall.

Don S just reversed his call for Dec and now has gone mild.in the east.

As you said, it's complicated. It's been very muddy lately past d7. A relaxation makes logical sense. A flip to an extended period of +epo/+ao is definitely possible but I'll definitely chuckle if the relaxation is transient and we are back in the freezer before the 20th or so. We'll see if it's a temporary thing.

Lotsa tune changing through the forums last couple weeks. I have a hunch that will continue this month. This year has proven very tough at long leads but that was expected in many ways.

Let's root for a -epo reload on the ens over the next week and change the tune again..

A flip to an extended period of +epo/+ao is what I fear the most. If this locks in after mid December I think we are in big trouble. Then the good pattern change is always at day 10+ and never seems to get here. First we say it looks like the first week in January, then it becomes week 2. Next thing you know the change gets here but it isn't until the third week of Jan. and then it is short lived and under performs and then reverses back for another 3 weeks of misery. Maybe this is a bleak outlook but it is one we have come to know all to well.

[Bob Chill]

A flip to an extended period of +epo/+ao is what I fear the most. If this locks in after mid December I think we are in big trouble. Then the good pattern change is always at day 10+ and never seems to get here. First we say it looks like the first week in January, then it becomes week 2. Next thing you know the change gets here but it isn't until the third week of Jan. and then it is short lived and under performs and then reverses back for another 3 weeks of misery. Maybe this is a bleak outlook but it is one we have come to know all to well.

Yea, not much we can do except wait and see. We could easily enter a period of no ao and no epo too. A continuance of variable weather with other factors controlling the flow. I personally have no idea where we go other than battling a less than favorable storm track but that is fine. It is what it is.

Cold air appears to remain in Canada for the foreseeable future. That is a net positive. For all we know we could end up with a period of a favorable +pna and some form of -nao this month. If the epo relaxes then height patterns in the Pac could push ridging into the west.

I would think that an outright flip of the epo and continued +ao is more of a worst case scenario vs an expected pattern change at this point.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yea, not much we can do except wait and see. We could easily enter a period of no ao and no epo too. A continuance of variable weather with other factors controlling the flow. I personally have no idea where we go other than battling a less than favorable storm track but that is fine. It is what it is.

Cold air appears to remain in Canada for the foreseeable future. That is a net positive. For all we know we could end up with a period of a favorable +pna and some form of -nao this month. If the epo relaxes then height patterns in the Pac could push ridging into the west.

I would think that an outright flip of the epo and continued +ao is more of a worst case scenario vs an expected pattern change at this point.

Pretty exciting times ahead I think. I agree completely with your last paragraph.