StatenWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Gfs is caving this time around Just a question where do you get your models from I need a good site (paid or unpaid). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Just a question where do you get your models from I need a good site (paid or unpaid). Ewall and weather bell, which is 20 per month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 On the 0z GFS just rolling out, at day 4-4.5, heights are a little higher up and down the east coast and a little lower over the Dakotas. The most significant change from previous runs in the height field appears to be the location of and magnitude of vorticity in association with the s/w north on Montana. The cutoff in the SW is not significantly changed. But over all the s/w spacing and orientation of the height field along the polar front appears slightly more favorable for phasing. Still unclear how this will play out later in the run. And with multiple s/ws in the fast northern flow, there will be changes every run. We just don't want to see it trend worse and worse with each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Gfs is caving this time around Tracking closer to the coast instead of out to sea. RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The wavelength of the western ridge appears shorter this run. That looks like it will really help with the overall orientation of the longwave trof. It might allow the cutoff to slide to the upstream side of the northern stream trof. And that is critical for wave interaction and the ultimate track and intensity of surface features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The northern stream will bring cold air nearby that could potentially be tapped. But the waves how to be well timed. I think a closer track could help with a well phased system and strong SLP center. Tracking closer to the coast instead of out to sea. RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Big improvements at h5 this run. Haven't even looked at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Warm at hour 120. It should cool in the subsequent panels. Esp just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 H3 looks potentially exciting. Best GFS run in a while I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Huge hit. Know it just from h5. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png Those 2 Strong HPs are the culprit for the Coastal Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Temps at the coast look borderline. As is typically the case in these scenarios. But I think snow gets to the coast everywhere at some point in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 H3 looks potentially exciting. Best GFS run in a while I think. I agree for a coastal storm, nor'easter but not a snowstorm IMO (at this time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Damn those are some beautiful frames. If this were January, this would be a nice MECS. Seems to be quite a bit of moisture for a uniquely southern stream system, but I guess it's all from the Gulf. If this were to phase with the northern stream, this would be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Those 2 Strong HPs are the culprit for the Coastal Snow. The way these maps are taken literally, there really is not much coastal snow, but plenty of rain. There is NO coastal snow on the front end, and perhaps some coastal mixing or flurries on the back end. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Temps at the coast look borderline. As is typically the case in these scenarios. But I think snow gets to the coast everywhere at some point in that scenario. Maybe for a brief period at the end in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Ok / deep breath a step in right direction to be sure & I know seeing that blue on that map gets anderenaline going & people will start tossing around words like dynamic cooling & a potential partial phase factoring in. But 1.) it IS the GFS 2.) It is THE GFS 3.) 6 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Damn those are some beautiful frames. If this were January, this would be a nice MECS. Seems to be quite a bit of moisture for a uniquely southern stream system, but I guess it's all from the Gulf. If this were to phase with the northern stream, this would be a monster. Partly true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Ok / deep breath a step in right direction to be sure & I know seeing that blue on that map gets anderenaline going & people will start tossing around words like dynamic cooling & a potential partial phase factoring in. But 1.) it IS the GFS 2.) It is THE GFS 3.) 6 days away Thanks for the reminder and good points. We are weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I agree for a coastal storm, nor'easter but not a snowstorm IMO (at this time). Wise to be cautious I think. And it's early in the season. But it's not like there is no cold air in the vicinity. And the way this is going... with a strong, slow cutoff, and a fast polar jet... I could see this thing really winding up off NC but being shunted southeast and pulling the polar boundary with it. I think we want a stronger system... just not an early phase. I wouldn't expect a snowstorm. But there is clearly a threat, esp NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Damn those are some beautiful frames. If this were January, this would be a nice MECS. Seems to be quite a bit of moisture for a uniquely southern stream system, but I guess it's all from the Gulf. If this were to phase with the northern stream, this would be a monster. I'm not so sure this is a snow event even in January, the problem in this setup on the 00Z GFS is timing, the high is too late coming in with the cold air and the lack of a -NAO, if thats in place you probably slow the evolution of the system enough to get the cold air in place in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 There you go, now we're talking. This would be a nice snowstorm for interior sections of SNE, Eastern PA, and NW NJ. I would say if it were to phase a bit faster then it might end up colder and stronger but the antecedent air mass is very marginal and you would risk having it wrap up too much so it becomes an inland runner (no snow for anyone). It's eventually able to pull in some cold air as it deepens more rapidly but not enough for NYC, Boston, and the coast obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Partly true! Which part(s) were false? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Partly true! It may or may not be important that the GFS has jumped back in the direction of today's 12Z Euro. Why? If the Euro takes it out to sea tonight, the probability of this storm coming together and moving up the coast will not really have increased. For those of you wishing for a soaking rain, the Euro is extremely important overnight tonight. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I'm not so sure this is a snow event even in January, the problem in this setup on the 00Z GFS is timing, the high is too late coming in with the cold air and the lack of a -NAO, if thats in place you probably slow the evolution of the system enough to get the cold air in place in time. Ok fair. I was assuming that in January, we'd have enough of an antecedent cold air mass to eek snow out of this one, despite the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png Damn... Thats a thing of beauty right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 It may or may not be important that the GFS has jumped back in the direction of today's 12Z Euro. Why? If the Euro takes it out to sea tonight, the probability of this storm coming together and moving up the coast will not really have increased. For those of you wishing for a soaking rain, the Euro is extremely important overnight tonight. WX/PT I would gladly take the soaking rain, so I'm hoping the Euro stays the course. Though it would be pleasant to see some back end snow flurries/showers even if it's brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Trouble is, the big changes at the surface this run seem to largely stem from a change in the shortwaves in the northern stream... one s/w in particular that was much more potent and tracked further SW. These little ripples in the flow are notoriously difficult to resolve, and we will probably continue to see large run to run changes for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Thanks for the reminder and good points. We are weenies! You * me * hundreds of others on here . But this forum adds a great deal to my knowledge base , particularly from the Pro brethern & thats why its the best around IMO.But I wont get my hopes up with this one as the situation is a 3& 17 at the 28 yard line with 1:17 left. Yes there is a chance but its likely under 10-15% . Lets just the pattern in motion & all will fall into place in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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