Quakertown needs snow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 from twit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Oh nice, I can't believe it's going to rain finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Oh nice, I can't believe it's going to rain finally. In weather forecasting nothing is guaranteed. Rainstorms can be busted just like snowstorms but we feel worse for the snowstorm misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Pretty good agreement between the ensemble mean and the OP on a juicy system. This would be the first one inch or greater event at NYC since 9-22 if it verified. I wonder what the longest streak between once inch events at NYC is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Pretty good agreement between the ensemble mean and the OP on a juicy system. This would be the first one inch or greater event at NYC since 9-22 if it verified. I wonder what the longest streak between once inch events at NYC is? MSLP_North32America_144.gif Somewhat of a consensus now, thank god. Hopefully the GFS caves soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 U. S. Weather Bureau, AKA - NWS - added the "snow" word into their afternoon forecast package. Whoo hoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Somewhat of a consensus now, thank god. Hopefully the GFS caves soon. It would be nice if we could get that east based block near Europe to build a little more west and force a quicker phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Upton: MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKOF LOW PRESSURE FORMING TO OUR SOUTH AND POSSIBLY COMING CLOSEENOUGH TO US TO BRING SOME PRECIP OUR WAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY ASDURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. FORECASTTELECONNECTION PARAMETERS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A MORE PROGRESSIVESTORM SYSTEM WITH A LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THE 12ZECMWF...WHICH MANAGES TO PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMENERGIES...DOES SO A LITTLE LATE IN THE GAME FOR A FAIRLY LONGLASTING HIGH QPF EVENT THAT IT DEPICTS OVER HERE. WITH THISSAID...IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN VS THEGFS. CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT IT AT THIS TIME. PREFERENCE IS GOSOMEWHERE ALONG THE LINES OF A WPC/12Z GFS MEAN BLEND REGARDING THETRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM. THIS WOULD MEAN LOW CHANCES OF MIXEDPRECIP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ANDWEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE SIMPLE THIS FAR OUT...SO GENERALLYA MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT FAVORING RAIN FOR THECITY AND COASTAL SECTIONS...AND MORE OF A MIX WELL INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS keeps getting worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z gfs way out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z gfs way out to sea Worst run yet...lol. Huge differences from most of the other models and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Worst run yet...lol. Huge differences from most of the other models and its ensembles. It's probably the GFS bias of knocking down the ridge ahead of the low too soon and letting the low escape east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Worst run yet...lol. Huge differences from most of the other models and its ensembles. Past history shows we should give the European model more credence The Euro is opposite of the GFS which yields rain for New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 (GFS + Euro)/2 = FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 (GFS + Euro)/2 = FTW! Happy Thanksgiving to all. The forecast is still six (6) days out and subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 (GFS + Euro)/2 = FTW! Haha Man if we could have the low go right I'm the middle of the euro and gfs, that wild potentially make a lot of people happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The GFS ensembles look more like the Euro with more ridging to the east and closer in tracks. A couple of earlier phasers with more blocking than Euro thrown in for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Working on a write up now. For my post, does anyone have hours 120-144 of the GGEM? Want to cover my bases. Additionally, what is the UKMET saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor'easterblizzard Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com/2013/11/possible-storm-next-week-explaining.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Working on a write up now. For my post, does anyone have hours 120-144 of the GGEM? Want to cover my bases. Additionally, what is the UKMET saying? that's a good writeup. Nice layout of the possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com/2013/11/possible-storm-next-week-explaining.html I don't think there is a chance anymore of a major snowstorm along 1 -95 - as mentioned in your article most Mets are discounting that chance BUT there is still the possibility of either it starting as snow OR ending as snow or both .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Better view of 12z UKMET slp : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I don't think there is a chance anymore of a major snowstorm along 1 -95 - as mentioned in your article most Mets are discounting that chance BUT there is still the possibility of either it starting as snow OR ending as snow or both .... Agree, climo is against it as is the lack of blocking, but nothing will be ruled out until tomorrow or Sat after the 12z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 if it's like Thanksgiving 1971 north of the city will get clobbered...the city warmed up enough for no snow at all...A similar storm came in February that year and was snow to rain ending as snow...At this point in time it's wait and see...It doesn't matter how cold it gets before the storm if the storm track is to close to the coast or to the west at worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Agree, climo is against it as is the lack of blocking, but nothing will be ruled out until tomorrow or Sat after the 12z runs... Fwiw euro ens had 20 of 50 members showing 2 inches or more (of snow) for Hartford area according to met/mod "Ct rain" some w considerably more. Not sure what was shown further SW toward nw nyc burbs but still could be interesting. Thread the needle on the phase, and pray for a slower southern stream in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I would not rule out what the gfs is showing. The gfs has schooled the euro earlier this season, remember the coastal weeks back. Euro showed a huge hit and the gfs was a miss and the gfs ended up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 I would not rule out what the gfs is showing. The gfs has schooled the euro earlier this season, remember the coastal weeks back. Euro showed a huge hit and the gfs was a miss and the gfs ended up being right. Wasn't the gefs with the gfs then though? Edit: Also the Euro had no support form its ensemble members then too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Wasn't the gefs with the gfs then though? Edit: Also the Euro had no support form its ensemble members then too. How many operational Euro runs have showed the scenario it now shows, a track right on or just west of the coastline? Answer-ONE. I would want to see at least three consecutive runs of consistency in the current track on the operational Euro. If the Euro continues jumping back and forth, or trending back OTS, I would tend to disregard the current operational run or the current ensembles. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Shot of our southern player over California Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Gfs is caving this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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