Thanksgiving Week Nor'easter Discussion

[Weathergun]

12z Euro has about 2.0-3.0" total qpf for tri-state area.

[IsentropicLift]

QPF map shows 2"+ for all of northern and central NJ with 2.5"+ from the city east.

[MJO812]

The Euro matches up pretty similiar to the GEFS.

[SnoSki14]

It's all rain but this is a good sign. I'll take 2" of rain, though again the timing stinks. However keep in mind the Euro got schooled by the gfs in the past and we're still quite a ways out of the Euro's deadly range.

[supermeh]

Euro and the GFS seem to be playing into their respective biases. Right now an average of the two extreme solutions should be used.

[IsentropicLift]

Incorrect 850's don't crash till after hr 150 and surface is still in PA at hr 156.

The 850 clears NW areas at 150 and by 156 it's over eastern LI. I never said anything about the surface, however by 156 it's clearing KMMU.

 

[IsentropicLift]

Euro and the GFS seem to be playing into their respective biases. Right now an average of the two extreme solutions should be used.

The Euro matches up well with most of the ensemble guidance. As soon as it phased the two streams I knew it was going to come up the coast.

[MJO812]

Euro snowmap has a couple of inches just to the northwest of the city.

[Allsnow]

 

The 850 clears NW areas at 150 and by 156 it's over eastern LI. I never said anything about the surface, however by 156 it's clearing KMMU.

 

 

 

 

That .10 had fallen by hr 156 and after that we don't get much, Their is not decent backend snow on those maps. Also don't post paid maps

[IsentropicLift]

We still have such a long way to go. The only thing really preventing us from having a MECS with the Euro solution is the lack of a high to the north supplying cold air.

[IsentropicLift]

That .10 had fallen by hr 156 and after that we don't get much, Their is not decent backend snow on those maps. Also don't post paid maps

Snow maps show several inches of back end snow on the NW side of the city.

[jm1220]

The Euro matches up well with most of the ensemble guidance. As soon as it phased the two streams I knew it was going to come up the coast.

I can't see the new Euro run coming out but there is likely interaction between the streams, but not a full phase. If there was a real phase, the storm would blow up much quicker and more cold air would be available on the west side for snow. Looking at the GFS and Canadian, the southern stream vort gets out ahead of the northern stream, which does not dive down to catch it. There is enough of a ridge east of the southern stream that the storm rides up the coast, but it overall looks strung out and there is no precip in the cold air. A phased storm wouldn't look that way.

[supermeh]

Snow maps show several inches of back end snow on the NW side of the city.

That snow falls on the front end. We get no back end snow

[Allsnow]

Snow maps show several inches of back end snow on the NW side of the city.

 

Those are incorrect and not true. Temps do not support that

[Weathergun]

The 12z UKMET has some phasing and strung out 992mb low hugging the coast. Not much different from the 12z Euro solution:

 

[jm1220]

Those are incorrect and not true. Temps do not support that

I make it a point never to look at the weenie snow maps which are often grossly wrong. Only check soundings when determining precip type.

[SnoSki14]

It's not a clean phase though, which is why we aren't seeing more cold air with this system. Perhaps we'll see more aggressive phasing where we could wrap some more cold air into it, though we still don't have full agreement with the models on this. 

 

I hope this system happens because it would mark a huge change from the dry weather pattern we've been experiencing and it would be a good omen for the upcoming winter.

[jm1220]

It's not a clean phase though, which is why we aren't seeing more cold air with this system. Perhaps we'll see more aggressive phasing where we could wrap some more cold air into it, though we still don't have full agreement with the models on this. 

 

I hope this system happens because it would mark a huge change from the dry weather pattern we've been experiencing and it would be a good omen for the upcoming winter.

I just saw the charts for the Euro run at 12z, and the phase doesn't take place until the storm is gone, into Canada. You can see at that point that the low wraps up into a comma shape and there's a significant CCB precip band. For us, we get a strung out low and rain because the streams are still separate at that point. Maybe there's a chance a phase can happen sooner, but there's no mechanism to make the northern stream dive in (a block). Therefore, the low for us is southern stream based and rides up the coast because of the ridge east of it.

[WeatherFox]

Well said. I agree.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

It's not a clean phase though, which is why we aren't seeing more cold air with this system. Perhaps we'll see more aggressive phasing where we could wrap some more cold air into it, though we still don't have full agreement with the models on this.

I hope this system happens because it would mark a huge change from the dry weather pattern we've been experiencing and it would be a good omen for the upcoming winter.

If anything, this has to be the game changer. Last time we have seen high amounts of precip like this was back in June and it happened after a dry spell.

[Brian5671]

Those are incorrect and not true. Temps do not support that

and when do we ever get backend snow on a good day?  I'll take never for $500 Alex

[IsentropicLift]

It's not a clean phase though, which is why we aren't seeing more cold air with this system. Perhaps we'll see more aggressive phasing where we could wrap some more cold air into it, though we still don't have full agreement with the models on this. 

 

I hope this system happens because it would mark a huge change from the dry weather pattern we've been experiencing and it would be a good omen for the upcoming winter.

Yes, after looking closer, the phase never really occurs until the low is passed us. I like the trends today and lets hope for a quicker cleaner phase as we get closer. This is still a day 5-6 threat.

[Allsnow]

Yes, after looking closer, the phase never really occurs until the low is passed us. I like the trends today and lets hope for a quicker cleaner phase as we get closer. This is still a day 5-6 threat.

I thought you said you knew it was coming up the coast when you viewed the phase?

[Dsnowx53]

I can't see the new Euro run coming out but there is likely interaction between the streams, but not a full phase. If there was a real phase, the storm would blow up much quicker and more cold air would be available on the west side for snow. Looking at the GFS and Canadian, the southern stream vort gets out ahead of the northern stream, which does not dive down to catch it. There is enough of a ridge east of the southern stream that the storm rides up the coast, but it overall looks strung out and there is no precip in the cold air. A phased storm wouldn't look that way.

 

 

Right, there is not enough blocking for a full phase...plus that ridge out west even flattens a bit. A full phase would've actually drawn the cold air into the system; instead some energy gets drawn into the system allowing it to pump up heights and turn northward, but the cold air remains well to the west. It's a partial phase. 

[Weathergun]

We are seeing a partial phase on the Euro and Ukmet. Not a full phase. A faster phase with no blocking, will likely result in inland track, anyway.

[IsentropicLift]

I thought you said you knew it was coming up the coast when you viewed the phase?

You could see the phasing start at hour 144. It's not clean though and not completed.

[jm1220]

Yes, after looking closer, the phase never really occurs until the low is passed us. I like the trends today and lets hope for a quicker cleaner phase as we get closer. This is still a day 5-6 threat.

Hopefully this can be a drought-denter with some good rains if the ridge is strong enough to force a close to the coast track, but I see little hope for much snow anywhere unless the northern stream can come in quicker and phase sooner. A strung out low and strung out precip won't be fun for pretty much anybody. And as many have mentioned, there's no mechanism to force a quicker phase since we still have a very progressive pattern and +NAO. Notice behind the system the quick cold shot but then 1-2 days later there's already a big ridge about to build in, while the NAO is uncooperative as ever. A pattern like this won't yield us any kind of big winter storm unless we luck out extremely well.

[IsentropicLift]

The GGEM ensemble mean looks like the 12z GEFS mean.

[forkyfork]

a lot of the modeled precip is from a system that develops in the moisture feed ahead of the southern short wave, not from the coastal low.

[Weathergun]

12z Euro ensemble mean, leaving more -NAO ridge behind in the Davis Strait through 108hrs.