Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 This never had a chance of being more than a cold rain for the coast. Not sure where you're going with that. It's still OTS this run anyway. This is a snow potential for the NW crew. The the NW crew of an ocean liner in the North Atlantic. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 00z GEFS ensemble mean is way west of the op and has a sub 1000mb low hugging the coast. 1"+ runs right along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 00z GEFS ensemble mean is way west of the op and has a sub 1000mb low hugging the coast. 1"+ runs right along I-95. Huge red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 00z GEFS ensemble mean is way west of the op and has a sub 1000mb low hugging the coast. 1"+ runs right along I-95. Huge red flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 0z Euro is more west . It shows a lot of rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 0z Euro has 1.5"+ qpf for I-95 east. Most of that is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Let's hope that this will be the game changer that will lead to more precip in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Link for the likely overdone 00z Euro snow map https://twitter.com/SNEWeather/status/403415330837389312/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Link for the likely overdone 00z Euro snow map https://twitter.com/SNEWeather/status/403415330837389312/photo/1 The one on weather underground shows something like that except move the snow line 50 miles NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The one on weather underground shows something like that except move the snow line 50 miles NW If you look at the zoomed in maps that I have, almost no precipitation is falling where it would be cold enough for snow. I suspect that if it comes down heavy enough, dynamic cooling will become a factor and we could snow with the surface in the mid 30's. The 00z Euro has a period of greater than 0.75" per hour water equivalent rates from KMMU south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Several of the 00z GEFS members had inland tracks with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Several of the 00z GEFS members had inland tracks with the low. I think at this point any precip is welcomed by many.... Snow is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I think at this point any precip is welcomed by many.... Snow is a bonus Yes I'm in that camp. We need to break the dry pattern and go from their. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Yes I'm in that camp. We need to break the dry pattern and go from their. I agree.. This may be one of those times where an inland runner is a positive. Anything but an OTS solution is a welcome sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I agree.. This may be one of those times where an inland runner is a positive. Anything but an OTS solution is a welcome sight Not time for the NAM yet but it ejects the cut off low out west further north than any other guidance. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I agree that I'd be happy with an inland runner because the dry conditions are starting to become very concerning. We are probably on the cusp of a lot more serious problems and every week of little rain causing increasingly lower stream flows, dry soils, and lessening reservoirs. A nice soaking rainstorm would be very helpful right about now and getting at least an inch to an inch an a half of rain is a good start. The 06z gfs backed off though and we're still dealing with a progressive pattern so I fear this storm will slip OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Thanks for your observations everyone. I don't know whether this is the best place to ask. Apologies if the question is lame. Amateurish of amateur here. But how the rain/snow line is determined? Or how do we know from the model maps that precipitation is rain or snow ? Is it based on the 0 line in the 500mb map? All I understood from these forum was that it is not a single factor which determines that. Water temperature in Atlantic, surface temp or even just being Oct or Nov has been some reasons I've seen. For example, in this model run for this storm ( http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013112018&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=177 ), how do I know that the 0.1in precipitation is going to be snow or rain over central NJ? Please delete/move it to a different if not appropriate here. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Thanks for your observations everyone. I don't know whether this is the best place to ask. Apologies if the question is lame. Amateurish of amateur here. But how the rain/snow line is determined? Or how do we know from the model maps that precipitation is rain or snow ? Is it based on the 0 line in the 500mb map? All I understood from these forum was that it is not a single factor which determines that. Water temperature in Atlantic, surface temp or even just being Oct or Nov has been some reasons I've seen. For example, in this model run for this storm ( http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013112018&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=177 ), how do I know that the 0.1in precipitation is going to be snow or rain over central NJ? Please delete/move it to a different if not appropriate here. Thanks. The best way to get an idea is by looking at the 850mb maps. In most cases that's a good start because it tells you what the temps are going to be in the mid-levels and if that's above freezing it's going to be hard to get frozen precip. So on the map you looked at, that blue line labeled 0c is the 850mb freezing line. You also have to take into account lower level temps as well. These lower level temps or 2m temps you may have to hunt for more with particular models. As you gain more knowledge you may start looking at the other levels as well. For example, the 2m temps and the 850mb temps might be below freezing but a warm punch occurs at the mid-levels, that could be a setup for sleet. If 2m temps are below freezing but 850mb temps are not, that could be an indicator of possible freezing rain. To put it all together, a lot of factors go into determining precipitation type and it's not as cut and dry as looking at 850mb freezing line on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z gfs going to be out to sea again this run. My money is on a miss and a cold turkey day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like a little more phasing going on with the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z gfs going to be out to sea again this run. My money is on a miss and a cold turkey day looks worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z gfs going to be out to sea again this run. My money is on a miss and a cold turkey day That's a bit pre-mature through hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Main difference I see so far is that the southern stream is weaker this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS wants no interaction between the vorts. The ensembles have been against this. Have to just keep playing the waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 That's a bit pre-mature through hour 144. No it really is not, it's going ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Like precip makes it up to about Philly hour 153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 GFS wants no interaction between the vorts. The ensembles have been against this. Have to just keep playing the waiting game. This run could have been much worse. We'll see what the ensembles show. The 00z GEFS mean was a coastal hugger with plenty of QPF well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 nothing's changed since yesterday. still looks like it's going to be a miss with an unfavorable pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's back to showing the double barreled lows. I still think that the models are having a very hard time resolving that initial burst of heavy convection down south. The GFS wants to form a low there in despite of the trough still being hung up over Alabama. We have to wait until both streams can be better sampled to know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Main difference I see so far is that the southern stream is weaker this run. The models are showing more energy and moisture in the southern stream with each shortwave than there's likely to be for the time-being and near-term future. Down the road, eventually, we will probably see closer to what the models are now showing but this will likely be an extremely gradual change. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.