Guest Pamela Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 You must take climatology into consideration. It snows more than 4 inches in November only once every 25 years, on average from Connecticut to Philadelphia to DC. Well, not really Connecticut...most of Litchfield County averages 3 to 8 inches of snow for the month of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 17 of the 51 Euro 12z ensemble members have more than 1.5 inches of precip with this storm and many of those are over 2 inches. As far as snow goes, at Caldwell it has 4 members that produce around a foot, and 13 that produce at least 2 inches (including the previous 4). It has only 5 members that don't show any accumulation. The mean is over 2 inches of snow at Caldwell. The ensemble members definitely make it look like an all or nothing deal. Either this phases and we get a lot of precip, or it doesn't and we don't get much. There was not much in between on the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 7 out 11 18z GFS ensemble members are more further west/amped than op run. Although, they are also warmer: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 A quick look, it appears that about half of those are major snowstorms to the west of the city. 7 out 11 18z GFS ensemble members are more further west/amped than op run. Although, they are also warmer: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 17 of the 51 Euro 12z ensemble members have more than 1.5 inches of precip with this storm and many of those are over 2 inches. As far as snow goes, at Caldwell it has 4 members that produce around a foot, and 13 that produce at least 2 inches (including the previous 4). It has only 5 members that don't show any accumulation. The mean is over 2 inches of snow at Caldwell. The ensemble members definitely make it look like an all or nothing deal. Either this phases and we get a lot of precip, or it doesn't and we don't get much. There was not much in between on the individual members.Yesterday about 35 of those members had big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 True, however the hits that it had yesterday were no where near as big. Not even close to as many big hits as it has today. This appears to be all or nothing. Yesterday about 35 of those members had big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 True, however the hits that it had yesterday were no where near as big. Not even close to as many big hits as it has today. This appears to be all or nothing.What did the control run have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 What did the control run have?BM storm , cold rain , which makes sense in mid November on an East wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Local media is going big again with the N'Easter N.J. forecasters watching for potential pre-Thanksgiving nor'easterhttp://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2013/11/nj_forecasters_watching_for_po.html#incart_river_default Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 BM storm , cold rain , which makes sense in mid November on an East wind it would IF it was mid November - next week is late November and it is too far out to determine track and wind direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 it would IF it was mid November - next week is late November and it is too far out to determine track and wind direction East wind in Dec and you don`t snow on the coast with a pos NAO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 it would IF it was mid November - next week is late November and it is too far out to determine track and wind direction The question was what did the control run show . East wind , if its right or wrong the answer was to what the model showed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 500mb setup reminds me of 3/1/09, that storm phased, but the setup seems similar to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Next week threat is still alive and well. In fact you can't ask for too much more for a 7 day lead time. This doesn't look like March 1993 but the ingredients are there for some kind of coastal and the airmass could be cold enough for snow, even to the coast... which is a bonus for this time of year. Southern stream lows (esp cutoffs) usually force moisture further NW than progged. But the northern stream doesn't look like it wants to play nice. Lots of s/w's in the n stream flow and the longwave pattern isn't completely favorable. Definitely wave interference potential. The usual thread the needle stuff applies with both OTS and track to Buffalo still options. But NE coast snowstorms are always thread the needle, so this goes without saying. Early season, esp for low elevations, I always pull for a cold solution and then hope for a potent midlevel low. I'd rather dabble with an OTS solution and try to pull it NW at the last minute. Hopefully this doesn't fall apart quickly so we have a few days of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 East wind in Dec and you don`t snow on the coast with a pos NAO . true - but what makes you think the NAO will be positive ? The outlook here shows a dip into negative territory is possible http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 500mb setup reminds me of 3/1/09, that storm phased, but the setup seems similar to me. and here is a review of 3/1/09 http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2009/02-Mar-09.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 true - but what makes you think the NAO will be positive ? The outlook here shows a dip into negative territory is possible http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif The GFS looks like it does head towards Neut next week , but not sure if that's enough . I was just answering what the Control run showed . I don't look out past 5 days because I think the models are having trouble with the speed of both streams . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 true - but what makes you think the NAO will be positive ? The outlook here shows a dip into negative territory is possible http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Negative isn't always good for us. We need it west based over Greenland or Baffin Bay, not over Iceland. We need a setup that buckles and slows down the northern stream over Canada and the North Atlantic. Essentially, the main feature of a +NAO or non-beneficial -NAO is the fast, zonal jet over the North Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Northern stream is slower and weaker 00z GFS. Should be good. The heavy precip is centered closer to the main low center down in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Oh boy, the northern stream is basically non existent this run. The southern stream wave is super amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like one consolidated low this run, or at least close to that. Not sure if it's going to be good enough to bring the goods but the trough has two contours closed off at 500mb hour 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like one consolidated low this run, or at least close to that. Not sure if it's going to be good enough to bring the goods but the trough has two contours closed off at 500mb hour 162. But still a rainstorm for New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I thought the 00z GFS was a big step in the right direction with less influence from the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Northern stream keeps getting more and more progressive with each run. Allows no interaction with southern vort to bring up the coast. Hopefully things change but it fits the pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 true - but what makes you think the NAO will be positive ? The outlook here shows a dip into negative territory is possible http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Its possible to get some help there. Today the NAO was negative (barely at 0.10) first time negative since Nov 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 This never had a chance of being more than a cold rain for the coast. Not sure where you're going with that. It's still OTS this run anyway. This is a snow potential for the NW crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 At this point we're better off to have the northern stream wave get out of the way and hope that whatever comes in behind it helps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 There is so much time for things to change. Another run and another solution. Need to wait till Sunday night or Monday to start getting some sort of solution that seems correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 At this juncture, a good rain storm would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Perhaps if the southern stream slowed down then it could phase with the next northern stream vortex coming east. Timing is so critical but the threat shouldn't be discounted at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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