IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Updated day 2 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAVGEM looks like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It would be quite something if some of the area rivers flooded after such a prolonged dry period. Right now most of the rivers are forecasted to crest just below action stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 We're not going to have much flooding unless we get widespread 3-4"+ amounts. Maybe some local stream flooding during heavier bursts. Right now it seems the consensus is 2-3", which would put a nice dent in the drought. Southern stream systems are often packed with moisture, so some local spots could pick up quite a bit more. Winds would be a concern if this were to shift a bit further to the west of us as we'd get warm sectored rather significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 We're not going to have much flooding unless we get widespread 3-4"+ amounts. Maybe some local stream flooding during heavier bursts. Right now it seems the consensus is 2-3", which would put a nice dent in the drought. Southern stream systems are often packed with moisture, so some local spots could pick up quite a bit more. Winds would be a concern if this were to shift a bit further to the west of us as we'd get warm sectored rather significantly. WPC is favoring the higher totals. Interested to see what happens to the NAM at 18z coming up shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I love when we get a system inside of 84 hours. Very little waiting between model cycles. 15z SREF's are coming out as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 15z SREF's are 3"+ for everyone, including all of NJ, NYC and Long Island. Area gets absolutely smoked from 06z WED through 18z WED. 12z SREF's were mostly 2.5"+ Fully expect the 18z NAM to come in even juicer since the NAM and SREF's tend to be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 15z SREF's are 3"+ for everyone, including all of NJ, NYC and Long Island. Area gets absolutely smoked from 06z WED through 18z WED. 12z SREF's were mostly 2.5"+ Fully expect the 18z NAM to come in even juicer since the NAM and SREF's tend to be similar. I haven't had a chance to look at the models, but I'm assuming the precip in Northern NJ is going to be rain, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I haven't had a chance to look at the models, but I'm assuming the precip in Northern NJ is going to be rain, correct? Yes, the SREF's hint at some brief wintry to start and end but it's light in both accounts. Pretty cool to see days and days of model watching finally come to fruition. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 18z NAM is holding serve. When it's this locked in less than 48 hours out you can put a lot of weight into it. The area of heavy rain is enormous. At hour 42 0.75"+ rates run from Maine to Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 18z NAM is holding serve. When it's this locked in less than 48 hours out you can put a lot of weight into it. The area of heavy rain is enormous. At hour 42 0.75"+ rates run from Maine to Virginia. Agree for the most part, although I've seen the model chop total QPF with less than 24 hrs to go. Doesnt really mean much here-we get b/w 2-4 inches no matter what...finally a soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 18z NAM paints a large region wide zone of 3.00"+. Soundings will likely show spots exceeding 4" and 5" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is very juicy. Heaviest rain is right up I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 ... High wind watch in effect from late Tuesday night throughWednesday afternoon... The National Weather Service in New York has issued a high windwatch... which is in effect from late Tuesday night throughWednesday afternoon.* Locations... New York City... Long Island... New London andMiddlesex counties... and southern New Haven... southernFairfield... and southern Westchester counties.* Hazards... strong winds.* Winds... south 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph.* Timing... strongest winds will be late Tuesday night intoWednesday morning.* Impacts... potential for downed trees and tree limbs as well aspossible power outages.Precautionary/preparedness actions... A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardoushigh wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph... or gusts of58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latestforecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 16 out of the 21 SREF members are above the OKX guidance for HPN. Mean winds up being 3.30" Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 ... High wind watch in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon... The National Weather Service in New York has issued a high wind watch... which is in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. * Locations... New York City... Long Island... New London and Middlesex counties... and southern New Haven... southern Fairfield... and southern Westchester counties. * Hazards... strong winds. * Winds... south 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph. * Timing... strongest winds will be late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. * Impacts... potential for downed trees and tree limbs as well as possible power outages. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph... or gusts of 58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. If those > 3" amounts are realized, the ground could be quite saturated and that might increase down tree potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Wind threat isn't being discussed enough here. 18z NAM shows for 60mph+ wind gusts: 18z NAM has 60kts winds below any inversion Wed morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Wind threat isn't being discussed enough here. 18z NAM shows for 60mph+ wind gusts: 18z NAM has 60kts winds below any inversion Wed morning: Sustained 30+mph winds from KMMU East. Tropical Storm force for Central NJ and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Wind threat isn't being discussed enough here. 18z NAM shows for 60mph+ wind gusts: 18z NAM has 60kts winds below any inversion Wed morning: That swath of 70mph+ wind gusts south of LI intrigues me. Wonder if there will be enough potential to mix down those winds especially since lapse rates aren't that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 WWA advisory hoisted for the Poconos. Latest from Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 For rain lovers like me, the 18z 4K NAM simulated radar is pants tent quality. It's going to start off looking rather broken up and people are going to start calling bust and by late Tuesday night it's going to be lit up like a Christmas tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I think a dry slot will cut down on big rain totals in our area. I'm thinking 1 inch amounts around the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I think a dry slot will cut down on big rain totals in our area. I'm thinking 1 inch amounts around the metro area. Not even the GFS has that little, what are you basing this on? Even the typically conservative Upton has more than double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Not even the GFS has that little, what are you basing this on? Even the typically conservative Upton has more than double that. Both the gfs and nam have a dry slot moving in around hr 51, yes we will get rain i just don't feel the metro area will get more then 1+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Also gonna be fun watching the temp fluctuations over the next few days, from 20 this morning to 60 for a while on wed., back down to 30's by la te wed ,and only in the 30's for thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 We'll definitely get more than an inch unless the low shifts further west where we could see a prolonged dry slot. It could get pretty wild though because you have strong winds, heavy rain, and crazy temperature changes all under a 24 hr time span. The low gets fairly potent on the Nam as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Sometimes dry slots are under-done on models so it is something to watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Both the gfs and nam have a dry slot moving in around hr 51, yes we will get rain i just don't feel the metro area will get more then 1+. Well by hour 51 on the 18z NAM we're all dry slotted because by then most of the rain is either off the New England coast or up into northern New England. The steady rains move out hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 there will be a main line of heavy rain wed afternoon with showery precip to the east of it. however, it's still going to push through the entire area and i don't see it moving too far west of us anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.