jm1220 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looking at the 4k NAM high res radar, NYC and western Long Island get dry slotted hour 51 thanks to the low passing right over that area. It would just be lolworthy for the areas that need rain the most get the least once again. The models look like they're favoring just northwest of I-95 for the most rain now, so it wouldn't be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Heaviest rainfall looks to be early morning hours on the 27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It would just be lolworthy for the areas that need rain the most get the least once again. The models look like they're favoring just northwest of I-95 for the most rain now, so it wouldn't be a surprise. Even at that, eastern areas still net 1-2 inches of rain. Anyone got the NAM QPF total map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Even at that, eastern areas still net 1-2 inches of rain. Anyone got the NAM QPF total map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Wow-5 inches for North NJ and NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Any chance of a dry slot for NYC metro? Usually this type of track will do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 WPC going with slight chance of excessive rainfall now. Goes to show you that as dry as it's been, this could still bring flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Any chance of a dry slot for NYC metro? Usually this type of track will do that The city and western Long Island did get into somewhat of a dry slot on the 12z NAM but it was short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 3-5 inches of rain in a fairly short time will do that even in bone dry conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 sou'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z NAM totals from the Bufkit soundings. KMMU 4.08" KLGA 3.77" KHPN 4.22" KJFK 4.31" KSWF 3.51" (includes 0.2" of snow) KISP 5.11" Sorry but that's all the sites in this area I have available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z GFS still not ready to fully latch on although the look at 500mb is very comparable to that of the 12z NAM. Still 1.5"+ areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Id be inclinded to lean on the wetter solution if for nothing else other than past history dry patterns ending with a very wet storm. Overall though looks like the wettest system since Sep or perhaps June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z GFS still not ready to fully latch on although the look at 500mb is very comparable to that of the 12z NAM. Still 1.5"+ areawide. It still has the disjointed low solution. It will probably adjust back to the other solutions with a more powerful central low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It still has the disjointed low solution. It will probably adjust back to the other solutions with a more powerful central low. The NAM still has the two lows. The main difference being that both lows affect the area on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Very interesting to watch the surface low take shape in the Gulf. Couple of rigs are reporting some pretty impressive winds. Actually looking forward to this wash-out. Reservoirs around here are looking pretty anemic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z GGEM is pedestrian for us as the low tracks so far west we're dry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z GFS bufkit has 0.12" of freezing rain at KSWF during onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean was 2-2.5"+ area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z UKMET totals. Tracks near Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z Euro would start with a brief period of frozen or freezing precip for the northern and western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Euro has one low, crushes the whole area hour 48. 1"+ rates covering all of NJ and large area of 0.75"+ surrounding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The 12z Euro is definitely more strung out with the low. Looks like a slightly less intense version of the 12z NAM FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z Euro is 2"+ for everyone. Fairly strong consensus now for 2-3"+ with locally higher amounts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z GGEM is pedestrian for us as the low tracks so far west we're dry slotted So does this mean NJ gets no precip at all in the entire storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So does this mean NJ gets no precip at all in the entire storm? No, but it's a lot drier than the model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So does this mean NJ gets no precip at all in the entire storm? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Fresh off the presses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 HPC looks like it is going with a widespread 3-4 inches of rain which could lead to flooding problems in the regions that receive it if it comes to pass as depicted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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