Hailstorm Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Gfs has 2" of rain and temps in the 60s Wednesday morning I wonder if Wednesday's warm temperatures alone can jeopardize our chances of getting a negative departure for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The key now if this 2nd low really is going to happen is to get the first storm as deep as we can possibly get it to try and turn the upper trough more negative which hence would allow more cold air to spill in from west and get the next storm to have a shot at giving us snow...its gonna take alot but its possible. GFS is close with snow for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 00z 4km NAM looks like it would easily produce 6" of rain for the area. 21z SREF still prints out about 3" of much needed rain KHPN_2013112421_tqpf.png Haha, I believe it showed over 40" snow for NYC the night before the Feb blizzard last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS is close with snow for the coast How does the post-Thanksgiving pattern look? Any semblance of blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS is close with snow for the coast Most of us would be very pleased if the rainstorm turned into a snowstorm bust. Probability very low though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 How does the post-Thanksgiving pattern look? Any semblance of blocking?AO looks to go positive after T day but then my dip into neutral negative afterwords. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I wonder if Wednesday's warm temperatures alone can jeopardize our chances of getting a negative departure for November. No. We'll be around -2 for the month after Tuesday. Even a +10 on Wednesday wont do too much damage. Plus we finish the month with 3 more well below normal days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 No way I'm getting into Newark on Wednesday evening on time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 No. We'll be around -2 for the month after Tuesday. Even a +10 on Wednesday wont do too much damage. Plus we finish the month with 3 more well below normal days. Exactly and I have my reservations about us seeing 60 on Wednesday with all the clouds and rain ongoing. You would need a good three day stretch of 60s or lows in the 50s to erase the negatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 KNYC GFS MOS has surface temperatures going from 40 degrees Fahrenheit at 00Z Wednesday to 52 degrees Fahrenheit at 12Z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Quick update on where we stand. 06z RGEM is super amped. Tons and tons of rain incoming at hour 48. 00z GGEM, one wrapped up low, as a result we get less rain. 00z ECMWF, again one wrapped up low, less rain 06z GFS, second low gets kicked OTS 06z NAM, two lows, boat loads of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 One low seems to make the most sense, I'll go with the Euro on this one. Probably a 1-2" storm as of now, which will help hold off an expanding drought. A 2"+ soaker could really put a significant dent in it but the storm moves through quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 One low seems to make the most sense, I'll go with the Euro on this one. Probably a 1-2" storm as of now, which will help hold off an expanding drought. A 2"+ soaker could really put a significant dent in it but the storm moves through quickly. The 00z ECMWF was 2.5"+ from I-287 North and West and 3"+ for the lower Hudson valley portion of our sub-forum while the 1-2" amounts are mainly from Bergen County south and east just to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 09z SREF mean is 2.5"+ for almost everyone. Only exception is 3.0"+ from eastern Weschester County up into CT and most of Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 09z SREF mean is 2.5"+ for almost everyone. Only exception is 3.0"+ from eastern Weschester County up into CT and most of Mass. I'm still taking the under for 2.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Doubt the 2 low theory. Anyone got the 12z NAM #'s yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 That ridge axis on the NAM is in a prime spot for amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Doubt the 2 low theory. Anyone got the 12z NAM #'s yet? The 12z NAM looks to be coming in even juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 00z 4km NAM looks like it would easily produce 6" of rain for the area. 21z SREF still prints out about 3" of much needed rain KHPN_2013112421_tqpf.png Nobody needs that much rain, whether it be 3 or 6"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 12z NAM still has the second low. Sub 992mb over NC at hour 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Hour 54 very heavy rain over us for the past 12 hours or so. Second low coming up the coast. Sub 988 over NJ. This would probably cause some flooding issues, especially since parts of the area already have frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Despite varying amounts it looks like the models have formed a consensus on the axis of the heaviest rain which looks to run on a line from DC up to Philly and then through NJ and into Western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Hour 54 very heavy rain over us for the past 12 hours or so. Second low coming up the coast. Sub 988 over NJ. This would probably cause some flooding issues, especially since parts of the area already have frozen ground. Well the NAM doesnt appear to be chopping totals like it often does on the eve of events... I'm starting to buy the higher amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Rain begins at hour 36 on the 12z NAM and is wrapping up at hour 60, although still some wrap around moisture coming down. Albany west is getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Well the NAM doesnt appear to be chopping totals like it often does on the eve of events... I'm starting to buy the higher amounts If you don't look at it's QPF totals and just look at the intensity of the precip that is being depicted to fall, it's pretty intense for an extended period of time. The rain axis and intensity remind me of what we saw with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 3-3.5" NYC west, less east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Weenie snow maps paint a few inches for the spine of the Apps northward into western NY. JP zone is from Albany north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 3-3.5" NYC west, less east The cutoff for excessive rain looks like the city. Northern and Central NJ are hit the hardest in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looking at the 4k NAM high res radar, NYC and western Long Island get dry slotted hour 51 thanks to the low passing right over that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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