Santa Claus Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This forecast is still a complete mess but if there's one thing to be counted on, it's the NAM overdoing precip. Yeesh. 1 to 2 inches across the board would be great, though. Even if localized amounts of 5 inches show up, I don't know how bad the flooding would really be given the dry conditions and the likely moderate rain rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 This forecast is still a complete mess but if there's one thing to be counted on, it's the NAM overdoing precip. Yeesh. 1 to 2 inches across the board would be great, though. Even if localized amounts of 5 inches show up, I don't know how bad the flooding would really be given the dry conditions and the likely moderate rain rates. We actually have fairly decent model consensus more than 48 hours out. Sometimes at this point the gfs is still out to sea while the euro has a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We actually have fairly decent model consensus more than 48 hours out. Sometimes at this point the gfs is still out to sea while the euro has a blizzard I guess that's true, maybe I am expecting too much from the models. I try to listen to the forecasters more, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The wind details and warmth will be determined by how fast the southern stream ejects and the trough goes negative tilt. The strongest winds would occur with the southern stream coming out a little faster leading to more deepening down by the Gulf Coast and a more consolidated area of low pressure. The main difference between the models now are more strung out vs stronger surface low development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Way overdone, probably 1.5 to 2" with slightly higher local amounts. and possibly alot less - with the track of the storm it is a possibility that there will be training of the heavy rain and there could be a wide range of precip amounts across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 and possibly alot less - with the track of the storm it is a possibility that there will be training of the heavy rain and there could be a wide range of precip amounts across the area Does this mean that some parts of NJ may get no rain at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I think this will turn into an event where we could see mixed precipitation starting and hanging on for even half of the event, even for PHL and NYC, with half a foot of snow just inland. The models are gradually trending away from a bullish 3"-6" of rain and more toward an inch or two....but I feel like we'll get mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Speaking of hype, don't fall for the busiest travel day of the year because that's not true. The busiest travel day of the year typically falls on a weekend during the summer. Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Here's one that I quickly found but there's more out there if you look. http://traveltips.usatoday.com/top-10-worst-travel-days-106014.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 18z NAM floods NYC metro. Wasn't earlier this year when NAM showed 50+ inches of snow for Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 18z NAM floods NYC metro. Wasn't earlier this year when NAM showed 50+ inches of snow for Boston? It had the right idea; albeit slightly displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Here's one that I quickly found but there's more out there if you look. http://traveltips.usatoday.com/top-10-worst-travel-days-106014.html Good info.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We need a row boat if the nam verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 18z NAM floods NYC metro. Wasn't earlier this year when NAM showed 50+ inches of snow for Boston? lol thats every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I have a chance to be at 1,600 feet in elevation in Liberty NY from tomorrow night through next Sunday as opposed to Long Island's western Nassau county in Lynbrook. Wish it was frozen here in Nassau/NYC but it won't be. Anybody remember Thanksgiving day 1989 and the 6 inch plus surprise we had in NYC. LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I have a chance to be at 1,600 feet in elevation in Liberty NY from tomorrow night through next Sunday as opposed to Long Island's western Nassau county in Lynbrook. Wish it was frozen here in Nassau/NYC but it won't be. Anybody remember Thanksgiving day 1989 and the 6 inch plus surprise we had in NYC. LI? Yes but it wasn't a surprise. The forecast was for 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Yes but it wasn't a surprise. The forecast was for 3-6". It was well predicted a couple of days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Upton Excerpts: AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGIONMON NIGHT AND A CUTOFF LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAMTRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE TWO WILL MERGE INTO ADEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW TRACKING UPTHE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST. THE PAST 3 RUNS OF THEGFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH A SOLN CLOSER TO THECOAST...LIKE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING FOR THELAST FEW DAYS. IT DOES REMAIN THE EASTERNMOST SOLN OF ALL OF THEGUIDANCE...WHICH HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER W OVER THE LAST 24HOURS. THIS TREND WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THEAREA...WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE AS THE STORM LIFTSOUT. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY COLDER AIR WORKS IN AND IFTHERE IS STILL PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATINGA SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLN. THE NAM HAS UPWARDS OF 5-7 INCHES ACROSSWESTERN ZONES...BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. SEE HYDRO SECTION FORMORE INFORMATION ON AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS.IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...WHICH COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY ATTIMES...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL. INDICATIONS OF A 60-70 KT LLJEXIST...ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS ARE INVERTED AND WOULD KEEP MUCH OFTHIS ALOFT. BEHIND THE STORM...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BELIKELY WED NIGHT INTO THU...BUT APPEAR TO BE SUB-ADVSY AT THIS TIME. .HYDROLOGY...A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA TUE AFTN THROUGH WED EVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4INCHES OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN. DUE TO THE PROLONGED PERIOD OFDRY WEATHER/SOIL CONDITIONS...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOTEXPECTED UNLESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLYFORECAST. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISLIKELY...ESPECIALLY WHERE LEAVES ARE CLOGGING STORM DRAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I have a chance to be at 1,600 feet in elevation in Liberty NY from tomorrow night through next Sunday as opposed to Long Island's western Nassau county in Lynbrook. Wish it was frozen here in Nassau/NYC but it won't be. Anybody remember Thanksgiving day 1989 and the 6 inch plus surprise we had in NYC. LI? Yes , I do but as I recall it was the last and biggest snowfall for that winter season, we had a frigid December and January but every storm went south of us or ots. P.s. Let us know how the weather does up there I spend my summers for the last 30 years in the mountains , near loch sheldrake at 1,530 ft or so I gotta go up once in the wintertime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Are the dramatics really necessary? Everyone knows the Nam QPF is always overdone. Upton mentioned it, so what drama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Guys can we keep the banter out of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The key now if this 2nd low really is going to happen is to get the first storm as deep as we can possibly get it to try and turn the upper trough more negative which hence would allow more cold air to spill in from west and get the next storm to have a shot at giving us snow...its gonna take alot but its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The key now if this 2nd low really is going to happen is to get the first storm as deep as we can possibly get it to try and turn the upper trough more negative which hence would allow more cold air to spill in from west and get the next storm to have a shot at giving us snow...its gonna take alot but its possible. Yea im looking at the same possibility, also if the second low was a few hours slower and slightly more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Upton mentioned needing boats? Just a reaction to an unusual computer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 00z NAM would have us start with a little wintry precip Tuesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 First low tracks over Philly, second low tracks just west of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 call it the thanksgiving week storm system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 call it the thanksgiving week storm system call it the turkey storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Gfs has 2" of rain and temps in the 60s Wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 00z 4km NAM looks like it would easily produce 6" of rain for the area. 21z SREF still prints out about 3" of much needed rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.