Guest Imperator Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Regardless, its a badly needed soaking rainstorm. The media and some people here will hype this simple because its the busiest travel day of the year. If it wasn't it would just be another rainy day. 99% of the population don't really care if its a phased storm, amped storm or how many MB the low is. Bottom line for most its a soaking rainy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Are there any trends to watch with that second area of low pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Regardless, its a badly needed soaking rainstorm. The media and some people here will hype this simple because its the busiest travel day of the year. If it wasn't it would just be another rainy day.this, it might cause street flooding too. Leafs clogging storm drains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z NAM is 5"+ of rain from I-95 West GOM open for business. I wonder if it will keep showing those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I haven't looked at the GGEM or the Euro from last night but 3" plus is certainly possible just west of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Way overdone, probably 1.5 to 2" with slightly higher local amounts. I think there could be some hefty rain amounts, maybe over 3" in places. The rain looks like it will train over the same areas for a long time, and the storm is coming straight out from the Gulf. It's going to have a lot of juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 it's not a nor'easter as modeled by the euro since we don't get NE winds. the evolution of this storm changed a lot Yeah, we get strong SE winds on east of the low track though. There is also still coastal flood threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I think there could be some hefty rain amounts, maybe over 3" in places. The rain looks like it will train over the same areas for a long time, and the storm is coming straight out from the Gulf. It's going to have a lot of juice. But it's moving at a good clip, so amounts should be far from excessive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 But it's moving at a good clip, so amounts should be far from excessive.If it was one wrapped up low I would agree. This is more like a fire hose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Yeah, we get strong SE winds on east of the low track though. There is also still coastal flood threat. Any minor coastal flood "threat" with this will be mitigated by a very low high tide cycle and winds which will veer southeast to south to northwest on Wednesday which don't look "strong". We are in between the new and full moon and Wednesday happens to be the lowest high tides of the cycle. Check your Tides. People have Also lowered the bar on their definition of what "strong" winds are. Take today for example. Yes we have a blustery day but i world hardly call it strong even the gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Any minor surge with this will be mitigated by a very low high tide cycle. We are in between the new and full moon and Wednesday happens to be the lowest high tides of the cycle. Check your Tides. People have Also lowered the bar on their definition of what "strong" winds are. Take today for example. Yes we have a blustery day but i world hardly call it strong even the gusts. I don't think they will be major flooding. But the shoreline is still vulnerable to any minor surge. To me there is strong winds (40mph+) and damaging winds (60mph+). If the Euro and NAM is correct with 925mb jet 70-80kts. Winds to could gust to 60mph on Wednesday, near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I don't think they will be major flooding. But the shoreline is still vulnerable to any minor surge. To me there is strong winds (40mph+) and damaging winds (60mph+). If the Euro and NAM is correct with 925mb jet 70-80kts. Winds to could gust to 60mph on Wednesday, near the coast. The 0z ECMWF 10 meter wind gusts on Accuweather Pro have parts of the Jersey coast into LI with 55 kt.+ wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The 12z GGEM has two sub 1000mb lows and tracks them both right over NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The 12z GGEM has two sub 1000mb lows and tracks them both right over NJ. 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Latest from the press. Looks like far NW should be prepared for snow! http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/11/deadly_storm_headed_to_soak_nj_before_thanksgiving.html#incart_river Nasty winter storm will likely Hammer N.J. before Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The 0z ECMWF 10 meter wind gusts on Accuweather Pro have parts of the Jersey coast into LI with 55 kt.+ wind gusts. I've been told those wind maps are just as valuable as the weenie snow maps. I'll leave it to a pro to decide what's what. It's beyond my interest or comprehension to read the proper soundings if the actual possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The GGEM is advertising a front end ice event for the NW parts of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I've been told those wind maps are just as valuable as the weenie snow maps. I'll leave it to a pro to decide what's what. It's beyond my interest or comprehension to read the proper soundings if the actual possibilities. I'm relating what it shows, so people can take it FWIW. I'm not sure how accurate those maps are myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'm relating what it shows, so people can take it FWIW. I'm not sure how accurate those maps are myself. I know. I'm just relaying that they are utter crap. I got rid of accuwx pro because a number if their text products don't work half the time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Strong winds are definitely a possibility if this tracks just to our west. You'll get screaming south easterly winds with temps in the 60s. There's still some time to narrow the track down and figure out the whole double low structure as well as strength of winds and rainfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Any chance this ends as snow for coastal areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Any chance this ends as snow for coastal area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Any chance this ends as snow for coastal area A slight chance. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We always end patterns in a big way instead of steady and gradual, so I guess it shouldn't be a surprise if we get 3"+ and strong gusty winds with temps into the 60s. Euro should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The 12z euro is a little more strung out than the 0z run with the southern stream hanging back slightly more. Probably need a few more runs to work out the specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I don't think they will be major flooding. But the shoreline is still vulnerable to any minor surge. To me there is strong winds (40mph+) and damaging winds (60mph+). If the Euro and NAM is correct with 925mb jet 70-80kts. Winds to could gust to 60mph on Wednesday, near the coast. Yeah, and now that it seems like trends are favoring us getting into the warm sector, those winds may be able to mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Anyone think this may trend so far west that the NYC metro stays largely dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The media and some people here will hype this simple because its the busiest travel day of the year. Speaking of hype, don't fall for the busiest travel day of the year because that's not true. The busiest travel day of the year typically falls on a weekend during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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