Thanksgiving Week Nor'easter Discussion

[Allsnow]

gfs is further west and has one low…heavy rain along the coast

[WE GOT HIM]

gfs is further west and has one low…heavy rain along the coast

It still has the second low down south but much weaker, looks to be falling in line

[Allsnow]

1.50+ of rain for the area on the gfs

[SnoSki14]

The gfs still has that weird double low solution, which I assume it'll continue to correct. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

It still has the second low down south but much weaker, looks to be falling in line

I think we are developing a better model consensus. The GFS is not quite there yet but it jumped toward something much closer to the wetter ECMWF and GGEM solutions taking the low through the benchmark which I doubt will happen. Unless the ECMWF and GGEM jump to out to sea solutions, I think we are looking at a very wet Tuesday night & Wednesday morning followed by windy cold and blustery weather for Wednesday night and Thanksgiving!

WX/PT

[rgwp96]

1.50+ of rain for the area on the gfs

hr 84 would be all snow for kfwn(sussex) but of course thats the gfs

[Weathergun]

0z UKMET at 72hr is looking like big inland runner. 999mb low over near Atlanta, GA. Phasing faster:

 

[atownwxwatcher]

Seems to me GFS is too far east 

 

 

GGEM also showing a well inland runner!

[rcad1]

How does the wind look with this storm???

[jm1220]

Seems to me GFS is too far east 

 

GZ_D5_PN_078_0000.gif

 

GGEM also showing a well inland runner!

Shocker.

[Snowlover11]

How does the wind look with this storm???

......would you quit asking. You and nyc ask the same thing every time. Pay attention its been talked about.

[WE GOT HIM]

Euro is an inland runner too...if this verifies this might be the storm that sets up the blocking for December.

[MJO812]

Euro has a lot of rain for the area with a lot of snow for western NY.

[Weathergun]

The 0z Euro also has much of the area in the 60s on Wednesday.

[SnoSki14]

The 0z Euro also has much of the area in the 60s on Wednesday.

 

60s to 20s perhaps then?

[Absolute Humidity]

FWIW Both AO and NAO were slightly negative today: AO -0.12, -NAO 0.15 and PNA was +0.20.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The 0z Euro also has much of the area in the 60s on Wednesday.

On initial look we see many maps in the 120-380 hour range that look promising for snow. At least they are promising for precipitation as our pattern gradually changes. But the problem for snow is that there is too much ridging in the western Atlantic and as the shortwaves move across the deep south  heights rise dramatically out ahead of them as the Atlantic ridge flexes its muscle. This, for the time being, looks as though it's going to try to force each storm system n-ward on the coast or inland bringing predominantly or all rain. That's what is happening this week, and the same kind of thing now shows up on the Euro at 240 hours. Well, at least it's 240 hours, and it can change. We need some high lattitude blocking up north to help change this.

WX/PT

[WE GOT HIM]

On initial look we see many maps in the 120-380 hour range that look promising for snow. At least they are promising for precipitation as our pattern gradually changes. But the problem for snow is that there is too much ridging in the western Atlantic and as the shortwaves move across the deep south heights rise dramatically out ahead of them as the Atlantic ridge flexes its muscle. This, for the time being, looks as though it's going to try to force each storm system n-ward on the coast or inland bringing predominantly or all rain. That's what is happening this week, and the same kind of thing now shows up on the Euro at 240 hours. Well, at least it's 240 hours, and it can change. We need some high lattitude blocking up north to help change this.

WX/PT

Good point WX....but at least we have storms, last winter we hardly even had anything to talk about till Feb.

[Weathergun]

On initial look we see many maps in the 120-380 hour range that look promising for snow. At least they are promising for precipitation as our pattern gradually changes. But the problem for snow is that there is too much ridging in the western Atlantic and as the shortwaves move across the deep south  heights rise dramatically out ahead of them as the Atlantic ridge flexes its muscle. This, for the time being, looks as though it's going to try to force each storm system n-ward on the coast or inland bringing predominantly or all rain. That's what is happening this week, and the same kind of thing now shows up on the Euro at 240 hours. Well, at least it's 240 hours, and it can change. We need some high lattitude blocking up north to help change this.

WX/PT

 

I agree. We finally have a more active southern branch, to help pump up the heights over the Southeast and West Atlantic, to force a more westerly track. But no good high-latitude block and 50/50 low to sustain confluence over the region. The GFS is also has a bias for breaking down the Southeast or West Atlantic ridge to quickly. That's why I don't give the GFS much credit, over the other models that show a more westerly track.

[David-LI]

The NAM shows a LOT of moisture. Overdone again??

[Guest Imperator]

Would this even qualify as a "nor'easter" anymore? Its just a soaking rainstorm....

[mob1]

Would this even qualify as a "nor'easter" anymore? Its just a soaking rainstorm....

That term has nothing to do with snow.

[IsentropicLift]

Would this even qualify as a "nor'easter" anymore? Its just a soaking rainstorm....

where does it say that nor'easters have to produce snow?

[KEITH L.I]

12z GFS caves to the Euro on east coast storms..how shocking

[forkyfork]

it's not a nor'easter as modeled by the euro since we don't get NE winds. the evolution of this storm changed a lot

[Guest Imperator]

That term has nothing to do with snow.

 

Since I have YanksWeenie on ignore Ill respond to you. I was referring to the literal term of a nor'easter, which means its a NE Wind driven storm, I don't see any northeast winds with this storm. As DT, has said, just because its a coastal (or near coastal) low, doesn't mean its a nor'easter, regardless of what type of precip falls. Anyone who uses the term nor'easter on a non-nor'easter is merely hyping. 

[bluewave]

12z GFS caves to the Euro on east coast storms..how shocking

 

Hopefully, the coming upgrades after the computing power increase will make it competitive in the future.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-us-weather-prediction-computer-gap.html

[mob1]

it's not a nor'easter as modeled by the euro since we don't get NE winds. the evolution of this storm changed a lot

Some use the term Southeaster if the low passes west of us, although I have no idea if everyone on the east coast must see NE winds for it to be called a nor'easter (what if it cuts through cape cod?)

[IsentropicLift]

12z NAM is 5"+ of rain from I-95 West

[SnoSki14]

12z NAM is 5"+ of rain from I-95 West

Way overdone, probably 1.5 to 2" with slightly higher local amounts.