IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 A few mets in the New England sub-forum are saying that the first low on the GFS is bogus and likely due to convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 At hour 168 you have a ridge out west centered just east of Idaho which is pretty ideal. You also have a northern stream low that blew up and is sitting in the 50/50 position. Low sitting over the FL Panhandle. The progressive pattern that we have been in, still favors the 12Z GFS outcome. Of all the possible solutions, I still believe that this one has the highest likelihood of verifying. We shall see. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The progressive pattern that we have been in, still favors the 12Z GFS outcome. Of all the possible solutions, I still believe that this one has the highest likelihood of verifying. We shall see. WX/PT I don't know about the double low solution it shows, but yes progressive is more likely than wrapped up/phased.A little bit of blocking would do wonders with this. The cold air doesn't look like it would be a huge problem for snow away from the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The progressive pattern that we have been in, still favors the 12Z GFS outcome. Of all the possible solutions, I still believe that this one has the highest likelihood of verifying. We shall see. WX/PT The overall evolution of the GFS is starting to look more and more like a classic miller A setup. Of course sometimes those miss us to the south if everything isn't perfectly timed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 I don't know about the double low solution it shows, but yes progressive is more likely than wrapped up/phased. It appears to me anyway that the strong convection down south is causing the formation of a bogus low but I'm no expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Not only is the 12z GEFS ensemble mean faster at ejecting the southern stream than the op but it's also more amplified so far through hr 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean has a much better phase than the OP. The northern stream is slower and the southern stream is a bit faster. The phase is much cleaner than the op and for now that's all we can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The 12z CMC much weaker and out to sea. We aren't seeing to run to run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The 12z CMC much weaker and out to sea. It looks nothing like the other guidance and has no phasing. Just takes the southern stream low and ejects it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 It looks nothing like the other guidance and has no phasing. Just takes the southern stream low and ejects it OTS. The 12z CMC has a kicker s/w over the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Nothing to jump for joy or panic over yet, just keep an eye on the potential for the storm at this phase, and the overall pattern. There's still the potential for the storm, and the pattern looks conducive for perhaps someone around the area getting wintry precip from it if it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The 12z CMC has a kicker s/w over Dakotas: The conspiracy that's trying to crack the drought pattern is beginning to crack up! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The spread in the individual members of the 12z GEFS is large and it still had several members showing a wrapped up low coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean has a much better phase than the OP. The northern stream is slower and the southern stream is a bit faster. The phase is much cleaner than the op and for now that's all we can hope for. I don't think it's correct to describe a model mean solution the same way as an operational run. Maybe we could say the GEFS mean suggests there are several ensemble members with a good phase. The mean solution doesn't use mathematical models and equations to compute the outcome. It just averages a family of member solutions. So it can't phase. Even if the mean solution looks like a phased contour plot, it's still just an average and not a discrete solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 the pattern stinks for phasing. next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 the euro has been too amplified all season... the day 7 progs for the front earlier this week showed us getting 2" of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 the pattern stinks for phasing. next. The pattern is fine for phasing as long as that northern stream doesn't out run the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 the euro has been too amplified all season... the day 7 progs for the front earlier this week showed us getting 2" of precip The GFS has been the one honking this threat more than all the other models up until the 12z run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The 12z ECMWF is a lot more amplified than the GFS at hour 144. The GFS was weaker and flatter. The phase is much better timed on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 less interaction than 0z. this run will be SE of the last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The 12z Euro has the two separate lows like the GFS but it's much closer to the coast. Not the most encouraging trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Unlike the GFS this second low on the Euro might make a better run at coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The second low on the Euro is going OTS at 180hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Let's try and get this within a reasonable timeframe and then analyze it, something that doesn't look promising over a week out is probably not going to hold up well as we get closer. I'm leaning OTS and cold for Thanksgiving week. There's still no huge indication of a wetter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Unlike the GFS this second low on the Euro might make a better run at coming up the coast. Still would be rain in NYC and Long Island until the end at wrap-around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 T-giving looks sub freezing. Very chilly look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Still would be rain in NYC and Long Island until the end at wrap-around. It looks borderline in the NW burbs. I wonder if this ends up being our sacrificial lamb that breaks the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 The pattern is fine for phasing as long as that northern stream doesn't out run the southern stream. There's nothing to slow down the pattern and force the trough to dig and grab the southern stream disturbance. There's a ridge in the West, but the flow is flatter to the east and it's a neutral NAO at best. This allows the northern stream disturbance to zoom east and flatten the southern stream disturbance, causing everything to shear out to sea. Not saying that's going to happen but it certainly could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 T-giving looks sub freezing. Very chilly look How about Sunday/Monday, still looks cold or did it moderate a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 20, 2013 Share Posted November 20, 2013 Eventually there will be a storm, it's late November..... I would take the fact that there is going to be cold and run with that at this point. It's not going to be dry all winter. I'm actually happier seeing cold at this point. Man the euro is frigid for t day. Those are low 20s for highs in interior New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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