bluewave Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Good Euro agreement with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 18z gfs out to sea again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 DT posted on FB a bias-corrected version of the GFS. That shows one storm coming up the coast: http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/gfspsd.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 DT posted on FB a bias-corrected version of the GFS. That shows one storm coming up the coast: http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/gfspsd.jpg Given the evolving pattern, it's possible that the GFS is onto something. Right now, I still think coastal areas will get a moderate precipitation event (probably something between the ECMWF ensembles and GFS ensembles), but can't dismiss the GFS. Small differences in the timing of the phase and trough could make a large difference in the storm's development and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The NAM looks very close to a complete phase. The southern stream just out runs the northern a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Given the evolving pattern, it's possible that the GFS is onto something. Right now, I still think coastal areas will get a moderate precipitation event (probably something between the ECMWF ensembles and GFS ensembles), but can't dismiss the GFS. Small differences in the timing of the phase and trough could make a large difference in the storm's development and track. Yea the trend has been ots so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Given the evolving pattern, it's possible that the GFS is onto something. Right now, I still think coastal areas will get a moderate precipitation event (probably something between the ECMWF ensembles and GFS ensembles), but can't dismiss the GFS. Small differences in the timing of the phase and trough could make a large difference in the storm's development and track. Yeah we def can't just toss the gfs, the pattern def supports more of a ots track then a wound up bomb over the apps. Going forward it looks like we keep the -epo which should keep us cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The Euro is still the leader. The only thing that changed is that the GFS is tied with the Canadian since the Canadian upgrade. Do you how exactly how this algorithm verifies the data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Yeah we def can't just toss the gfs, the pattern def supports more of a ots track then a wound up bomb over the apps. Going forward it looks like we keep the -epo which should keep us cold. If the GFS is right it would likely just be one big low going out to sea, the scenario it shows with 2 decent surface lows coming out of the GOM and coming up the coast is not something I ever recall happening, thats why its easier for me to dismiss the GFS, if it was just showing one organized system going OTS I could definitely buy it was onto something more so than I can with what its depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 If the GFS is right it would likely just be one big low going out to sea, the scenario it shows with 2 decent surface lows coming out of the GOM and coming up the coast is not something I ever recall happening, thats why its easier for me to dismiss the GFS, if it was just showing one organized system going OTS I could definitely buy it was onto something more so than I can with what its depicting. It's hard to argue against the other models and their ensembles. I assume we'll see the gfs correct itself soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 18z gfs out to sea again GFS has been the outlier model as per the NWS. Time will tell if it does a coup. Either way our Thanksgiving weeks weather, is either with rain or no rain for NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Go home GFS, you're drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Given the evolving pattern, it's possible that the GFS is onto something. Right now, I still think coastal areas will get a moderate precipitation event (probably something between the ECMWF ensembles and GFS ensembles), but can't dismiss the GFS. Small differences in the timing of the phase and trough could make a large difference in the storm's development and track. I just can't see the GFS beating the Euro inside 5 days when the GFS bias has been wide right for 20 years in its midrange I never dismiss anything but I will never bet against the Euro in these situations I've seen the GFS correct west 100 in the past decade on east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I just can't see the GFS beating the Euro inside 5 days when the GFS bias has been wide right for 20 years in its midrange I never dismiss anything but I will never bet against the Euro in these situations I've seen the GFS correct west 100 in the past decade on east coast storms. Why? Euro was forecast like 2 feet of snow last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Why? Euro was forecast like 2 feet of snow last weekend Also the 1.5 inches of rain within 80 hours that became .15 in Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I just can't see the GFS beating the Euro inside 5 days when the GFS bias has been wide right for 20 years in its midrange I never dismiss anything but I will never bet against the Euro in these situations I've seen the GFS correct west 100 in the past decade on east coast storms. I also expect the GFS to yield to some extent, hence I expect a moderate precipitation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Why? Euro was forecast like 2 feet of snow last weekend Huh. That was a day 9 and day 10 op run which its ensembles disagreed with . OK so u bet the whiff and I will take the Euro and wish u the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I also expect the GFS to yield to some extent, hence I expect a moderate precipitation event. I agree to some degree too I think tonight runs should start to sort things out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I also expect the GFS to yield to some extent, hence I expect a moderate precipitation event. Fair I wouldn't disagree with a mid point solution. Just didn't like the look of the midday op miss on the GFS I just tend to look at the Euro ensembles for mid range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Huh. That was a day 9 and day 10 op run which its ensembles disagreed with . OK so u bet the whiff and I will take the Euro and wish u the best my post was the past big east coast storm with the euro. GFS took it to the wood shed. We ended up with sunny weather. I have no dog in this fight, so let it be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 FWIW mt holly threw out the 12z GFS, RGEM, AND THE EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 So what are they going with? The JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 FWIW mt holly threw out the 12z GFS, RGEM, AND THE EURO lol so i guess that leaves the craz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 So what are they going with? The JMA? From what I read they said 00z has the best handle. Front end snows for n&w of 95 then heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I can't wait for this storm to pass so people stop focusing on a rain event, the pattern looks amazing on most model runs for Day 9+, there's going to be a lot of REAL snow threats in early December, I'm locked & loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I can't wait for this storm to pass so people stop focusing on a rain event, the pattern looks amazing on most model runs for Day 9+, there's going to be a lot of REAL snow threats in early December, I'm locked & loaded. You have anymore trips planned north this year buddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I can't wait for this storm to pass so people stop focusing on a rain event, the pattern looks amazing on most model runs for Day 9+, there's going to be a lot of REAL snow threats in early December, I'm locked & loaded. lol, the pattern always looks great 9 days out, than when we get there it looks great another 9 days from then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 How's the wind look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The 18z ensembles were all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 gfs coming in wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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