eduggs Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Quite possible. It's not as dry as the op but it did shift east. It looks like there will be a few wet, inland lows and several suppressed, slower, dual lows in the individuals. Big spread continues. As has been said for days, with multiple s/w's in the polar jet, the models will have lots of trouble pinpointing which s/w to key on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like out sea is a growing possibility Funny that you say that. Several people on here (including myself) have favored that outcome for several days. And yet I have been, in my mind, starting to hedge a little back towards an inland solution since last night. Among the operationals, the GFS is on its own right now. Although the intra model ensemble spread easily includes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The GEFS also shifted east. yes it has - that arctic front and progressive flow is going to not give the LP time to turn the corner http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013112312/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z Euro is supper amped. Low is going to cut right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z Euro is supper amped. Low is going to cut right over us. Great agreement lol. I'm not going to discount the gfs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Hour 96 we're getting hammered by heavy rain. Low is near Richmond, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z Euro is supper amped. Low is going to cut right over us. That's close to the solution..Euro 4 days out is deadly with east coast storms..without a doubt the model of choice over the GFS in that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Euro has 2m temps in the upper 50's at hour 96 with 60's just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Hour 102 is a sub 992mb low right over NJ. Heavy rain continues. Likely over 3" of rain for all this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Lots of wrap around moisture with this run. Everyone is 2.00" of rain + with 2.5"+ for almost all of northern NJ. New England is 2-3" of rain. Temps crash on Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Euro has 2m temps in the upper 50's at hour 96 with 60's just offshore. I assume Thanksgiving is cold on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I assume Thanksgiving is cold on the Euro Yep! Western PA and western NY get some good snows on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Track and intensity is almost identical to the 12z GGEM FWIW. Euro is just a hair further east at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I assume Thanksgiving is cold on the Euro Euro has the surface freezing line right along I-95 at 18z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 That's close to the solution..Euro 4 days out is deadly with east coast storms..without a doubt the model of choice over the GFS in that range I'm inclined to agree, but let's hope it doesn't drop this solution tonight or tomorrow. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I'm inclined to agree, but let's hope it doesn't drop this solution tonight or tomorrow. WX/PT remember a couple weeks ago when the Euro caved to the GFS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 remember a couple weeks ago when the Euro caved to the GFS ? No comparison. You had all the ensembles OTS then, the GGEM OTS then. This time the Euro has the support of its ensembles, it has the GGEM and up until 12z today, even the GEFS ensembles were way west. The GFS is always the first one to the party, the first one to leave and the last one to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Someone posted an extended version of the UKMET on another sub-forum. Shows a coastal south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 remember a couple weeks ago when the Euro caved to the GFS ? I do, and I think it could happen again, then again, it's one of a number of models that would have to do so. I'm not sure that happens this time. While I was favoring the OTS solution, I'm now on the fence thinking this could go either way but leaning slightly now toward the amped solution/s. No confidence whatsoever now. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 No comparison. You had all the ensembles OTS then, the GGEM OTS then. This time the Euro has the support of its ensembles, it has the GGEM and up until 12z today, even the GEFS ensembles were way west. The GFS is always the first one to the party, the first one to leave and the last one to come back. so your forecast is for 2-3 inches of rain and temps 50-60F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 No comparison. You had all the ensembles OTS then, the GGEM OTS then. This time the Euro has the support of its ensembles, it has the GGEM and up until 12z today, even the GEFS ensembles were way west. The GFS is always the first one to the party, the first one to leave and the last one to come back. The Euro has done this on occasion too, let's be fair. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 so your forecast is for 2-3 inches of rain and temps 50-60F That's what the 12z GGEM and 12z ECMWF both have. The GFS I guess can not totally be discounted but it's pretty much on its own right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The Euro has done this on occasion too, let's be fair. WX/PT True, but I was pointing out that last time the Euro was all by itself while the GFS had all the support. This time the tables are turned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The GFS is probably wrong this time, we have to remember even though it beat the Euro frequently last winter it was largely because we still had a La Nina feel to the pattern so its crushing northern stream overbearing often ended up playing right into the way things fell, with all the southern stream action we're seeing so far the last few weeks I'd be cautious about using the GFS this winter if it differs from other models inside Day 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 This will be the first storm threat with the upgraded Euro. http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/cms/get/ecmwfnews/331 http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_40r1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 iif its going to rain id rather have it the way the euro has it with 50 and rain. who to hell wants 30s and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 This will be the first storm threat with the upgraded Euro. http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/cms/get/ecmwfnews/331 http://www.ecmwf.int/products/changes/ifs_cycle_40r1/ Thats interesting...the gfs has been doing much better than the euro imo since its updates in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Thats interesting...the gfs has been doing much better than the euro imo since its updates in July The Euro is still the leader. The only thing that changed is that the GFS is tied with the Canadian since the Canadian upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Any idea how the wind would be with that track?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looking at it id think the best chance for the NYC metro would be if the southern stream system slows down even more/ejects later and that kicker shortwave is a bit faster. as per the GFS, if anything is going to "catch" the southern stream it would be that second s/w.... A least if I'm reading this right That's just if the GFS or a GFS like solution were to verify at least I agree with this. This is a newbie's perspective but the 12z GFS sped up the northern stream sw and slowed down the southern shortwave and it allowed high pressure to build in the NE. If there is any chance of snow in this case, then it would be because the second low slowed down enough for cold to build in into the Northeast. If the second low is slow enough, it would create enough separation and therefore more ridging for it to go up the coast into that new high pressure. Although with the other models including the Euro looking much different this might not matter. The GFS definitely looks like an outlier. Anyways we need the rain here desperately because its been so dry. Something to keep in mind for future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.