WeatherFox Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 lol it still wouldn't surprise me if this thing dried up or went ots like every other storm the last few months If that happened this storm would be a bust. It has happened in the past so you can never say never! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Southern stream is slightly slower through 93 - Less northern stream interaction so looks to be a more easterly track and back to 2 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Southern stream is slightly slower through 93 its more strung out this run and weak…..also further east. Looks like Ramsey NJ gets some light rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Nyc gets .5 or less and Ramsey Nj is less then .25….nothing epic at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 its more strung out this run and weak…..also further east. Looks like Ramsey NJ gets some light rain... I wonder if the second low can become the dominant feature and come up to coast, the 500mb vort is much slower now than 18z so that might support the second low in future runs. - Its not going to happen this run but it something I will be watching as that low would be dealing with much colder air up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Gefs and ggem are amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 GGEM is still going with an inland runner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 GGEM is still going with an inland runner... GGEM.gif As I've been saying, I think either the inland runner or the OTS solutions make the most sense. It is hard to thread the needle when none of the weather systems are in the right place for a strong coastal storm. At this point, I still slightly favor the mostly OTS track. We could also get a significant amount of moisture drawn up the coast way out ahead of any organized low center, then the low goes OTS and takes the next bundle of moisture with it. These are still all possibilities. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The 0z Euro still two lows. But looks more organized with the first low. The first low is 998mb low tracks over LI and gives the entire 1.5-2.0" of rain. The second low is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 0z Euro has the 2 low scenario. The first low goes right on top of NYC. Heavy rain for coastal areas. There isn't a lot of precip on the western side of this storm so on this run, not many people see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 0z Euro has the 2 low scenario. The first low goes right on top of NYC. Heavy rain for coastal areas. There isn't a lot of precip on the western side of this storm so on this run, not many people see snow. This is not right. 1"+ total qpf is goes back to BGM. The first low much warmer and inland runner. 850mb temps gets as high as +8 to +10C for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 and will end up with the nickname "Boring" Boreas" - with all the indicies in generally unfavorable positions and the fast flow helped by a lack of a negative enough NAO - ole Boring will have difficult time winding up and will more then likely end up a strung out fast flow mess - precip amounts will probably end up quite a bit less then currently advertised as has happend all fall in this type of fast flow. Precip types along the coast will be mainly liquid because of a lack of intensity which is needed in this type of marginal cold set-up and time of year - example: the last 2 years snowfalls in Oct and November had enough precip intensity to create a colder atmosphere for frozen I still agree with myself 24 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 GFS is a complete whiff. Nothing . Nada. Dry and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 GFS is a complete whiff. Nothing . Nada. Dry and cold. You know what I think. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Too bad the second low can't ride up. It would certainly be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 GFS is a complete whiff. Nothing . Nada. Dry and cold. GFS out to sea??? Never seen it do that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Nice to see the 12z GGEM still super amped. Rain to Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Too bad the second low can't ride up. It would certainly be cold enough. The system is a sheared out mess. That's what happens in a progressive pattern like this where nothing can phase or organize in time. It wouldn't surprise me to see a fish storm altogether but the other models being much more amplified gives me some confidence we at least see some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looking at it id think the best chance for the NYC metro would be if the southern stream system slows down even more/ejects later and that kicker shortwave is a bit faster. as per the GFS, if anything is going to "catch" the southern stream it would be that second s/w.... A least if I'm reading this right That's just if the GFS or a GFS like solution were to verify at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Too bad the second low can't ride up. It would certainly be cold enough.Yeah it's so disjointed that the first low almost turns into a 50/50. The GEFS remains well west and as long as that continues and as long as the op remains an outlier I'm calling BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The threat for organized snow in this region is pretty much over. Looks like most likely scenarios are 50's and rain or 30's and partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The 12Z GFS solution is closer to the truth then these amped up solutions that don't match the fast flow - Positive NAO - Negative PNA pattern - if there was a negative NAO and 50/50 low this would be a MECS here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The threat for organized snow in this region is pretty much over. Looks like most likely scenarios are 50's and rain or 30's and partly cloudy. This was never a snow threat for our region so long as the northern stream was separate from our main low. SW winds are in force well before the storm gets here. There's maybe a stripe west of I-81 that can have some appreciable snow if models like the Euro are right, but it won't be a widespread area anywhere east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 This was never a snow threat for our region so long as the northern stream was separate from our main low. SW winds are in force well before the storm gets here. There's maybe a stripe west of I-81 that can have some appreciable snow if models like the Euro are right, but it won't be a widespread area anywhere east of the mountains.Areas well NW (more than 40 miles NW of NYC) have the best chance at seeing any snow. The rest of the area might see some flurries or a brief mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The GEFS also shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 This was never a snow threat for our region so long as the northern stream was separate from our main low. SW winds are in force well before the storm gets here. There's maybe a stripe west of I-81 that can have some appreciable snow if models like the Euro are right, but it won't be a widespread area anywhere east of the mountains. I agree. Don't know if pp knew what we're looking at all week. This was always rain for the coast on an east wind In any event don't count on an OTS solution unless u see the EU ensembles follow suit Wed is prob a cold rain. I ignore the GFS and it's typical error at this range. I Will only give it credence if the EC follows it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The GEFS also shifted east. Oh oh, dry begets dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Oh oh, dry begets dry? Quite possible. It's not as dry as the op but it did shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 As we get closer the spread is increasing, wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like out sea is a growing possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.