IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Things get interesting at 120, especially for western New England because the low is bombing inside the benchmark. CCB into western MA and temps are beginning to crash. Too little to late for us I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Light precip over the area Tuesday night with temps below freezing from the city NW. 850s are warm at that time, could briefly begin as snow or light mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 At 123 the low is just SE of Cape Cod, interior New England is getting hammered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 If this were February, the 18z GFS would be a weenies dream. 1.5-2" for the entire area through 123 hours No cold air to work with though. Cold, but much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The low actually goes NW at hr 126 and into Canada at 129. Weenie snow maps show accumulating snows for most of PA and from about Rockland County north. 12"+ from Springfield, MA up through Western Maine. 18"+ for New Hampshire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 If this were February, the 18z GFS would be a weenies dream. 1.5-2" for the entire area through 123 hours No cold air to work with though. Cold, but much needed rain. This run is about as close as we've gotten so far to a realistic solution with snow for the area. We have to see if that northern stream can dig a little more early on with the trough hung up over Texas. If only we had that high to the north, this would have been a blockbuster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Pretty nice to see a low track from KBRO to KPYM in November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 If this were February, the 18z GFS would be a weenies dream. 1.5-2" for the entire area through 123 hours No cold air to work with though. Cold, but much needed rain. No doubt this is going to be a very juicy system. The storm is entirely southern stream and originates right from the Gulf. Too bad there isn't more of a mechanism for the northern stream to dive in and phase quick enough. It still could soon enough for the northern Appalachian regions (PA and upstate NY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 This is really the first run that has shown one consolidated low that I can remember that actually brought it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Things get interesting at 120, especially for western New England because the low is bombing inside the benchmark. CCB into western MA and temps are beginning to crash. Too little to late for us I think. There isn't really much wraparound precip until the low center is in the gulf of maine. The mid level centers are not mature before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 There isn't really much wraparound precip until the low center is in the gulf of maine. The mid level centers are not mature before then. Plus he is not looking at 850 temps at all. A lot of mid level warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Well if you want a real snow threat, the LR gfs cooks up one for the magical date of Dec 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Well if you want a real snow threat, the LR gfs cooks up one for the magical date of Dec 5. Going forward after turkey day the pattern looks real good on both the euro and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 No doubt this is going to be a very juicy system. The storm is entirely southern stream and originates right from the Gulf. Too bad there isn't more of a mechanism for the northern stream to dive in and phase quick enough. It still could soon enough for the northern Appalachian regions (PA and upstate NY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Looks that way from my vantage point today. Thanks for your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Going forward after turkey day the pattern looks real good on both the euro and gfs Yes it does and next week's storm is a real game changer if of course it goes as modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Plus he is not looking at 850 temps at all. A lot of mid level warmth http://www.surfline.com/weather-forecasts/mid-atlantic/long-island-new-york-sea-surface-temperature_2146/ Sst are warm... It is November... I'm just saying there's really not a lot of cold air to work with right now.. Especially near the coast and with those sst's, many can be torched, even what many might consider inland areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 http://www.surfline.com/weather-forecasts/mid-atlantic/long-island-new-york-sea-surface-temperature_2146/ Sst are warm... It is November... I'm just saying there's really not a lot of cold air to work with right now.. Especially near the coast and with those sst's, many can be torched, even what many might consider inland areas There's plenty of cold air. Just not on the coast. And SSTs don't matter unless you get an east wind which would be bad any time of year anyway. We need a rapidly deepening low to occur after a certain longitude so it pulls in the plenty of cold air to our west as it rides up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 There's plenty of cold air. Just not on the coast. And SSTs don't matter unless you get an east wind which would be bad any time of year anyway. We need a rapidly deepening low to occur after a certain longitude so it pulls in the plenty of cold air to our west as it rides up the coast. Looking at the maps.. Are we not in mostly an east wind until the precip cuts off? Or am I looking at the wrong soundings? And it matters even with a NE wind as well. Later in the winter it does not matter quite as much as sst's become cold enough that a NE wind can help us cool down, but this time of year, unless it is directly N or NW -which can happen as the low passes our latitude and rapidly deepens- the precipitation usually shuts off prior to us receiving a cold enough atmospheric profile for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 Plus he is not looking at 850 temps at all. A lot of mid level warmthI was referring to interior New England which gets hammered. Read my posts more carefully please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 The 18z GEFS mean is just a hair east of the OP. Then tracks the low over eastern Long Island. Still a few members that are OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2013 Share Posted November 22, 2013 We are flooded with warmth, with the SW flow, well ahead of the storm. That's why a further east track doesn't necessarily result in a snowier solution: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 We are flooded with warmth, with the SW flow, well ahead of the storm. That's why a further east track doesn't necessarily result in a snowier solution: Yea, I think the only chance we have of some snow on the coast if the storm could slow down some more to allow the cold air to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 if the euro verifies this won't be a nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 If this were February, the 18z GFS would be a weenies dream. 1.5-2" for the entire area through 123 hours No cold air to work with though. Cold, but much needed rain. Without the cold air and high pressure exiting into the Atlantic, it really shouldn't be a weenies dream at any time of year unless you're talking about wet dreams. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 if the euro verifies this won't be a nor'easter The EEuro has a chance to re-earn it's past reputation if it's correct. Right now it's forecast doesn't carry the same power it did just a couple months ago. It's like the US dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Without the cold air and high pressure exiting into the Atlantic, it really shouldn't be a weenies dream at any time of year unless you're talking about wet dreams. WX/PT I'll be more than happy to take a massive soaker right now. Doesn't have to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I'll be more than happy to take a massive soaker right now. Doesn't have to be snow. An inch plus of rain looks to be possible at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 update from the press on the pending N'Easter. http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2013/11/holiday_havoc_pre-thanksgiving.html#incart_river_default Holiday havoc: Pre-Thanksgiving nor'easter will cause major travel headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 update from the press on the pending N'Easter. http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2013/11/holiday_havoc_pre-thanksgiving.html#incart_river_default Holiday havoc: Pre-Thanksgiving nor'easter will cause major travel headaches lol it still wouldn't surprise me if this thing dried up or went ots like every other storm the last few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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